Somerset Squall

A small eye is appearing, I expect Barbara to become a hurricane next update. Interesting reading from Jeff Masters' most recent blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2419

Barbara has continued to rapidly intensify, winds are up to 55kts now. A partial eyewall has been noted, and Barbara is probably going to become a hurricane later today.

02E has consolidated significantly overnight, and has become Tropical Storm Barbara, with sustained winds now at 45kts. The cyclone has a small central dense overcast feature obscuring a now tight LLC. Barbara could continue to rapidly intensify given the toasty sea temps of 30C, and the non-exsistant shear. Barbara has drifted eastwards overnight. The lack of northward motion will give Barbara slightly longer over water, and it is not out of the question for Barbara to achieve minimal hurricane status before landfall.

The second tropical depression of the 2013 East Pacific season has formed from invest 92E. 02E is located near the Gulf Of Tehuantepec off the southeast coast of Mexico. The disturbance has taken a while to organise as it moved little, but 02E finally has a well defined circulation and convection has built over this circulation over the last 6 hours. Intensity is 30kts. 02E is in an area of low shear and warm sea temps, so the only thing arguing against significant intensification is proximity to land. 02E is expected to drift northeastwards and make landfall in SE Mexico in about 24hrs time, so 02E only has this amount of time to intensify. So I think the NHC's forecast of a peak of 50kts is a fair one, and could even be a little generous based on past behaviour of this system (slow consolidation). Having said that, the central core of convection could mean some fairly quick intensification may be about to occur. Bottom line is that 24hrs over water isn't really enough to allow strengthening past moderate to strong TS. Therefore, the primary concern is flooding rains.

Nice enough start but cloudy, windy and cool now ahead of the rain.

91E down to 10%. Little going on with this one as it drifts westwards further out to sea. Convection is lacking. 92E now up to 50%. Convection is becoming persistant, and although the LLCC is not well defined at present, it seems to be detaching itself from the ITCZ. Models are keen on bringing 92E ashore on the south coast of Mexico as a tropical storm or even a low end hurricane. Conditions are very favourable for perhaps some rapid strengthening IF the LLCC gets itself together in time before landfall.

I can't either Iceberg. Just a 5% chance of a below average season. That's a pretty confident prediction.

Alvin is no longer a tropical cyclone. It doesn't have a closed circulation anymore, and is fully embedded within the ITCZ. Regeneration is not expected.

Very cold start this morning, with a low of 0.3C. A beautiful day followed however, barely a cloud in the sky. Temps falling away like a stone again however, down to 4.8C already. Not really wanting frosts this late on to be honest, though at least they are short lived when the early sun gets to work.

Alvin is a prime example of how little skill even the experts have at predicting tropical cyclone intensity. Alvin's winds are now down at 40kts, and this estimate could be generous. Alvin may not even be a tropical cyclone anymore, as it has become involved with the monsoon trough. Alvin itself is actually very difficult to tell apart from disorganised convection throughout the trough. Unless Alvin seperates from the trough, and fast, NHC will discontinue advisories. And just to think, yesterday it looked like Alvin would become a hurricane! This image sums it up. Alvin, or what's left of it, can barely be picked out from the trough:

Alvin strengthened to 45kts this morning, but has since stopped strengthening. The intensity forecast is not as clear cut as originally thought, and in fact NHC have completely backed off Alvin reaching anywhere near hurricane strength, though they say the intensity forecast is very uncertain. Alvin's LLC is located on the western edge of the convection now, indicative of an unexpected rise in shear. Shear is expected to be moderate (about 20kts) over the next few days which could cap further intensification. Models did not pick this up very well, especially SHIPS which was hinting at rapid intensification. NHC only forecast a peak of 50kts now before shear rises to destructive levels in around 72 hours time.

From Coast's article: "At least 50 Rohingya Muslims drowned on Tuesday when boats evacuating them from the path of the cyclone capsized off western Burma." How sadly ironic that more people reportedly have died trying to evacuate than from what Mahasen has otherwise killed In addition to these people and the other 7 killed in Sri Lanka, a further 12 people have died in Bangladesh. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22537615 As for Mahasen, the cyclone has rapidly dissipated over Bangladesh and northeastern India due to strong shear and frictional affects from land. The remnant low will lose identity as it continues northeastwards further inland.

01E continues to strengthen, and has become Tropical Storm Alvin, with sustained winds now estimated to be 35kts. Alvin is developing banding features and deep convection over the LLC. Shear continues to be low, and waters very warm, so Alvin could strengthen fairly quickly over the next few days.

Persistant shear has left Mahasen in such a disorganised state that even though shear is now low, the cyclone has failed to strengthen. Intensity remains at 45kts. Heavy rains are spreading onto the coast of Bangladesh, and conditions are set to worsen overnight here. Mahasen is still a very dangerous storm, despite it being weaker than originally forecast.

The first tropical depression has formed bang on the East Pacific season's start date, around 500 nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. 01E has a fairly healthy amount of convection over the LLC, but there is little or no banding at present. 01E is over very warm water, and should remain in a low shear environment for the next 4 days. Therefore, 01E is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves west-northwestward. As 01E reaches the western periphery of the ridge to the north steering it, it should begin to gain lattitude, and this will bring 01E over cooler water and stronger shear which should start to weaken the system beyond 96hrs. 01E is of no threat to land.

Not as bad as in Cornwall but the winds have really picked up here in the last half hour as the rain pivots away northwards, just had a 45mph gust from the south, when half hour ago it was raining hard but very quiet wind wise

Raining lightly here, but what is interesting is the temperatures. They were at 8C a couple hours ago but are currently falling and now down to 6.7C. Not saying that snow will fall here but it's certainly a remarkably chilly day for this time of year nonetheless. Looks to be a cold one tonight too. Rainfall totals look a little concerning too for my location.

Mahasen strengthened to 50kts but has weakened back to 45kts. Shear continues to affect Mahasen, and the shear has exposed the LLC from the intense ball of convection which is very much displaced to the west. Mahasen has started the northeastwards turn as it rounds the ridge to the east and begins to move lsong the northwestern periphery. This track is expected to persist through landfall near Chittagong, Bangledesh. Shear is expected to finally begin to ease, and JTWC forecast Mahasen to strengthen to 70kts prior to landfall. Mahasen, needless to say, will be a very dangerous threat to Bangledesh and northwestern Mayanmar over the coming days.

Mahasen is struggling currently, as it is ingesting dry air from India. This has stopped Mahasen from strengthening beyond 45kts. The LLC is pretty broad at present and the convective canopy appears to be shrinking due to the dry air. Mahasen is still moving to the northwest but will turn north over the next 24 hours before recurving northeast towards Bangledesh. Mahasen is still expected to strengthen, particularly when it heads notheastwards away from the east coast of India. Bangledesh still look very much in the firing line from this dangerous system.

Shear has gotten the better of Jamala. The LLC has been devoid of convection since this afternoon and has unravelled significantly. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance have issued their final warnings. Even if shear eases, the remnant low of Jamala will probably be too weak to regenerate.

Yeah, I have a feeling we will get a landfalling major on mainland USA this year...

A tropical cyclone to it's north? Do you mean south (Jamala)? Indeed an interesting set up with the two cyclone's being dubbed twins, and this event is quite common which I found out to my surprise from Jeff Masters recent blog. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2402 But yes I should have mentioned the equatorward outflow being pretty good aswell, helped by Jamala to it's south in the South Indian Ocean at present (which, incidentally, is really suffering at the hand of shear at the moment). 01B has now been given the name Mahasen by IMD. Mahasen's sustained winds are up to 45kts this morning. Deep convection continues to obscure the LLC, and the cyclone's rainbands continue to cover much of the southern Bay Of Bengal. Rains appear to be easing in northern Sumatra, but heavy rains are lashing the Nicobar Islands and are now spreading north over the Andaman Islands. Of much more concern of course is events next week. Final landfall is subject to change at this range, but current JTWC thinking puts landfall on Bangledesh, which as we all know is incredibly vunerable to heavy rain. Mahasen could be quite strong at landfall given the apparently favourable environment ahead.

Isn't that an old wives tale? The Oak ALWAYS have leaves on before the Ash here- and look where that has got us over the last few Summers LOL

24S was given the name Jamala this morning by MeteoFrance, but the cyclone is struggling at the moment. The shear is quite strong currently, and Jamala looks rather dishevelled on satellite imagery. Sustained winds have decreased to 40kts, and strengthening doesn't look likely in the near term, though the shear is still expected to eventually ease.

Looking impressive on satellite imagery, track forecast quite worrying: