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Lynxus

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Everything posted by Lynxus

  1. Lynxus
    Do you know how I know that wont happen? Because Gloucester looks like being hit dead on... This wont happen. 110% confident. Would be nice tho.
  2. Lynxus
    So cool. Next best thing to thunder and snow is hailstorms!
  3. Lynxus
    Line of new convection south of the UK.
  4. Lynxus
    we have a storm. albeit weak. ive heard 4 rumbles now.
  5. Lynxus
    Bristol / SE Wales you say...... I BET I get a storm today! I need to test a tent this afternoon!
  6. Lynxus
    The sea tends to be a little too cool to really help aid storms. However, I dont think it will have any negative affects either today.
  7. Lynxus
    Not much rain here overnight either. Looking good for today though! Estofex have a nice set of warnings ( Large hail, tornadoes and lightning! )
  8. Lynxus
    Love the optimism but I really think we are at a loss tonight. Zero potential energy about. Even storm "risk" is minimal. Convergence? Not really any good, clear air masses colliding. Estofex have nothing for us. I fear its gonna be quiet with heavy rain moving in later. ( No thunder me finks )
  9. Lynxus
    Wow, Glad I didnt obsess all day today. Clearly nothing happening.. Its oddly too quiet
  10. Lynxus
    Very dark, clouds around here now. Certainly some good convection. Should see stuff kick off in an hour or so ( As I always say, 15:00 onwards is best )
  11. Lynxus
    Ohhh I really hate it when Estofex dont have a warning out. I know they may not be working today etc.. But it just worries me lol Fingers crossed. I seemed to miss them all yesterday / night . Its certainly more humid today mind. So thats a good sign. Pretty much says it all.
  12. Lynxus
    Either blitzortung has died, or these storms have suddenly all dropped in activity...
  13. Lynxus
    BBC news ( Radio1 ) just mentioned a load of thunder for the west and "especially" the south west for later. I can only assume they think the band of PPN moving up will intensify.
  14. Lynxus
    No. Not at night.. This is why I say coastal areas are bad this time of year. There is zero heat to help convection once the sun is down. This is why inland areas are better suit for the heat island / urban heating to help. You do however have the fact that there are already intense pulses out at sea. They may be able to handle the transport across the water.
  15. Lynxus
    Id say the opposite tbh. Unless coastal areas see imports during the night I think inland is better for storms to develop. Durinal heating helps a lot here and being on the coast can almost certainly kill anything "popping up" during the later hours. Just my 2cents
  16. Lynxus
    .... Where they merge into a Massive MCS and get stuck in the Severn valleys bringing us 10+ hours of extremely frequent lightning.
  17. Lynxus
    A SINGLE, LONELY STRIKE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST..... Could this be the sign we all waiting for?
  18. Lynxus
    As a 32 Year old, When I see storms heading for me, I'm like a child running between windows , up and downstairs, checking the radars. Grabbing the camera, running again up an downstairs. Jumping up and down like a girl at a Justin Beiber concert.
  19. Lynxus
    From Cells like that, i wouldn't be surprised if there is hail on the trailing edge of the CB. The leading edge is probably be very heavy rain.
  20. Lynxus
    In all honesty, "Normally" I dont expect to see storms kick off until 15:00 onwards in the summer. Around now is a good time to start seeing ignition all over the place. Eyes south..
  21. Lynxus
    Oh My god! Those cells in wales have exploded and taken down blitzortungs servers lol 200+ strikes in 10 mins!?
  22. Lynxus
    Some lovely cells around wales now. ( Realtime lightning display ) http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
  23. Lynxus
    What... http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014051417_201405141306_-_mesoscalediscussion.xml Never seen this on Estofex! Mesoscale Discussion Valid: Wed 14 May 2014 13:00 to Wed 14 May 2014 17:00 UTC Issued: Wed 14 May 2014 13:06 Forecaster: PISTOTNIK According to latest surface observations, strength and position of the deepening surface low centered over Northwestern Bulgaria seem to follow the forecast models. An increasing number of storms has initiated along the eastward shifting cold front, roughly aligned to the Western edge of the highlighted area. Ahead of it, scattered insolation and strong warm air advection have resulted in rising temperatures and dewpoints (e.g. Plovdiv with 21/17°C and Gorna Orechovista with 22/18°C at 12 UTC) with Easterly surface winds. Storms are organizing very well while they move northeast into the strongly sheared and helical wind profiles of the warm air advection regime. A bow echo is currently moving across the oblasts of Pleven and Lovech. Severe wind gusts and localized hail can be expected with its passage. As soon as the bow echo crosses the pronounced warm front along the Romanian border, it will encounter strong Northeasterly surface winds (7-10 m/s) and much lower surface temperatures (13-15°C). Convection will quickly become elevated and weaken, but will still pose a threat of heavy precipitation over Southern Romania. Further South, some storms with radar reflectivities up to 60 dBZ have kept a more discrete appearance over the Southwestern quadrant of Bulgaria and as far South as the Thessaloniki hinterland in Greece. An organization into supercells with a threat of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts can be expected, possibly followed by a clustering into an MCS later on. Especially in a corridor between the Balkan mountains to the South and the Danube river to the North, strongly backed surface winds ahead of the surface low may even promote a few tornadoes. Spot on too..
  24. Lynxus
    Estofex have a Tstorm symbol from midlands southwards. Although, Its not really for much. Just some heavy showers with limited activity. Today has a little potential for the odd local storm but nothing major. http://estofex.org/
  25. Lynxus
    This better not be the trend this year.. Im not having it again.. The UK needs some good storms!
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