gagerg

The recent low pressure along with the state of the Arctic Ice now has led me to the pessimistic vote of 2,900,000km2

To see the Arctic melt out before the end of June.....

It would depend on the state of the Arctic ice by the time we get into the actual melt season for if it is badly cracked, then the ice is likely to melt out rapidly this year.

Is it me or does the thickest ice of the Ice Pack appear to be on its way out to the Fram Strait. I apologize if this is just my poor observation of the graph.

Are you referring to a possible heatwave similar that that of the one that occurred in America last year occurring in our neck of the woods?

Living Life on the Edge - Earth on the edge of Runaway Global Warming (habitable zone) - http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/04/earth-is-on-the-edge-of-runaway-warming.html

Just thought I'd bump this thread with an interesting worst case scenario that stems from a horrific abrupt methane release. http://killerinourmidst.com/ This is down to speculation and is very unlikely, but interesting all the same in the sense that it can relate to recent methane releases and is one that is down to probability and chance rather than climactic conditions. I assume present conditions are more than suitable for an apocalyptic methane release.

I can agree with that. There is something strange however in certain models as there are models out there that don't show the Ice Loss to be quite as extreme. For example this graphic which was actually updated today.

How early do you think the whole pact could melt out this season as a result? I ask this as the steep slope in which the Arctic Ice is declining looks to make it such that the Arctic Ice will cease to exist by late June.

Ongoing drought in the US, imminent melt out of the Arctic Ice and food supplies tumbling. Doesn't sound like utter tripe to me.

Most depressing article on Arctic News. http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/04/advice-for-parents-at-the-end-of-the-world.html

I don't really know what to expect in my lifetime with regards the subject of Climate Change for certain articles I read (for example some of the posts on Arctic News) and comments on certain Forums tend to depict something apocalyptic whereas there is also a number of comments on certain forums that tend to be somewhat more optimistic. I guess a list of what I would expect to happen would including 2013+ The Arctic melt out during the summer perhaps during late June, July or early August Increasing outputs of methane into the atmosphere The expulsion of methane from the Permafrost in a year or two The decrease of food reserves as a result of extreme drought in the Breadbaskets The breakdown of society, either gradual or swift within either a year, 5 years, a decade or a couple of decades. I am very unsure of certain events due to the fact that my understanding of them are poor and thus with regards the more extreme scenarios I just make guesses.

Quite a steep drop on the JAXA Ice Extent.

Perhaps it will take another record drought before we actually focus on individual worth GW, otherwise it would take another extinction period with many people doomed to oblivion as a result of a massive population die off.

Certain opinions are much more bleak in comparison to yours BFTV For example Douglas Spence's opinion of what is to come in the future. I am not sure if this would prove true or not, but with the worsening drought in the US along with the potential for a full melt out of the Arctic Ice, his predictions don't seem to be too far off the mark.

Just thought I'd bump this thread with an update. http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2013/apr/02/drought-forecast-bad-to-worse/ It seems like the food situation has turned from poor to absolutely hopeless. Personally I feel as though the collapse of society is waiting right around this corner in the next few months with cannibalism being the main regime . I'm a great disaster movie writer, but not enough time for to direct one of those.

I would go for an Ice Free Arctic, but at this point it does not seem to be doing too bad, but the situation still seems dire so I think it would be around the 2.5 million area or less.

As we all know the drought that occurred in America during the 2012 summer which had adverse effects on the county's agriculture: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_North_American_drought and there is reason to believe that this occurred as a result of Climate change from the Carbon Dioxide emitted by humans along with the decreasing albedo of Greenland and the Arctic Ice (due to increasing amounts of open water). What is important to note with regards leading food producing countries like America, Canada, Russia etc, is that if their production starts to tank then there is a risk of a global food crisis. With a repeat of the 2012 large scale ice pack melt likely along with another heatwave in America one has to wonder about the impacts of a summer heatwave that damages crops in 2013.

With the Arctic cracking and implications for a melt out one has to wonder how early the ice could melt out.

Some large patches of warm air up in the Arctic. Perhaps they are part of the large high pressure that has made its presence known in the Arctic.

Record Methane in the Arctic during the early days of March (from the 1st to the 10th). http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/

Piomas Ice Volume increased astronomically dwarfing even the expected increase and decrease. While this does look like good news I am not sure as to whether or not the data presented is either adequate or just a glitch with the website like one of the Ice Extent Models showing a crazy increase in extent during Christmas.

Not the happiest of stories on Arctic News. http://arctic-news.b.../Aaron Franklin Does anyone know if the processes described above are already happening at this point in time?

What on earth? http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

It almost sounds like you support my idea of a full melt out during April or even before June.