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Ice BIast

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  1. The 18z continues the theme, and is the first run to show significant polar ridging in the troposphere and Greenland high potential at the end of the run. I suspect that the stratospheric PV will probably end up not being displaced quite as much as currently modelled, but the current output certainly seems to be favourable for the chances of a final cold spell before Spring arrives.
  2. This upcoming warming is quite interesting, as many wave 1 events in the past seemed to push the PV towards our side of the hemisphere, but the GFS has been consistently modelling the PV at 10hPa to be displaced well to the east (although this is still in the extended range). Today's 6z shows the possible effects of this, with downward propagation resulting in a nice stratospheric ridge over Greenland at 30hPa, and there are signs of a ridge beginning to build at 100hPa at the end of the output. It is only one run so caution required, but something to keep an eye on.
  3. Indeed, and when comparing that to the EC 46 anomaly from 2 runs ago for the following week: Doesn't look that different does it. Much uncertainty at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the next EC 46 backtrack towards such a trend, so it will be very interesting to see what its next run offers.
  4. I just wanted to highlight this post that Roger made in December. He clearly states the cold only creeping in around 31st Jan (which it is), and the main cold coming in mid February (as the ECM is now hinting at with the building of a Scandi High towards mid Feb). The forecast has not gone wrong yet, lets just wait and see what happens mid month.
  5. I was just looking at the forecast from October from the Glosea model, and I must say, for the period of Nov-Jan, I am amazed at how accurate it's been with the geopotential heights. It got many details spot on, including the low heights over/south of the UK, and the strongish heights near the aleutians. In fact, pretty much every detail in the Northen Hemisphere matches very well with what actually happened. Impressive.
  6. Well, interesting what Matt Hugo said in the Strat thread, about the EC 32 dayer being very bullish about height rises to the North and NEly winds in Feb. If that happens, then surely, the RJS model would attract a lot of interest. Interesting times ahead.
  7. To be honest RJS, many people on here are probably just talking about other forecasts more because of a cold January being forecast, which many prefer over a cold February, so everyone is focusing on these forecasts, at least for now. I for one rate your forecasts very highly though, and I'm sure that many others see you among the top long range forecasters too.
  8. Indeed this is a problem. I just think though that GP's forecast shouldn't be called "a bust", as he forecasted the general pattern well, and for anyone to expect him to forecast things down to fine detail from at least a couple of weeks away is just silly. Remember that just a tiny shortwave made a big difference to our weather during the height rises to the NE, something that cannot be forecast by any long range forecaster.
  9. GP's Dec forecast looks OK to me, his forecast for 500HPa heights fits the actual anomaly for December so far... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.
  10. Let's hope so. The MJO isn't doing us any favours currently, sticking around phase 3 for a while yet.
  11. The warming clearly looks happy about what it's done on that run, it's grinning at us! Seriously though, if a warming were to happen, then how much time lag would there be in this case before we start seeing tropospheric impact?
  12. Wave 1 activity is forecast to increase again to 1400 at day 10. Looks like the vortex wont be able to relax for a while!
  13. I found this 30 HPa chart interesting. As well as showing the main part of the PV moving towards Siberia, it also shows a lobe of PV near Iceland, tracking quickly east. Once this lobe has cleared east, towards Scandinavia, that would open the door for height rises to the NW would it not?
  14. So Chiono, the GFS seems to be showing some interesting synoptics like you said it might due to the EP Flux, but may I ask, what exactly is the EP Flux and why does poleward flux result in such a difference to the PV? Thanks.
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