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Snowman.

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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Ideally, you want the trough to drop through Scandi then edge SW. Keeping SE of the UK. Dropping straight North with that kind of intesity will create lows halting the cold flow which needs to be potent to get snow in March. I would also suggest looking back at 2013 to see it evolve it's not as perfect as you may believe. It could take more than 1 attempt to get this, March 1st 2013 shows us in similar situation. Decent block, looking to go NW. Southerly draw over the UK as the high sinks SE, leaving us in a WB -NOA FF a bit then we get the attempt 2. Which was successful as we all know. Trough droipping down near scandi etc. I think worrying about these things will cause incredible stress, hanging your hopes on the latest set of OP runs will only lead to misery. Always a chance of a 2nd attempt.
  2. May not be a terrible thing. If we can get the high somewhere between Greenland and Iceland streching SE I think we'll be fine.
  3. Jan 2013 saw a QTR of Im not mistaken. Feb 2013 also saw a good amount of blocking too. The vortex was basically out for most of that time, I’m unsure on what MJO was up to for March however
  4. Absolutely wild, hard to back GFS at this point in time must be said.
  5. Relying on a trigger shortwave dropping down the North Sea with heights building over at D7+ to setup an easterly. Yeah don’t feel like chasing that one. Nice to see however.
  6. This year has been frost heavy, no snow but definitely cold periods. While CET may say something different, its been some years since we've had dry cold snaps.
  7. Better pacific ridging has dragged the PV lobe further south giving us a better amplitude on our high here
  8. Impressive polar ridging on the Pacific side on the 6z. But I would trust someone who “communes” with the spirits more that the 6z when it comes to forecasting weather. But could be a nice run we’ll see.
  9. Low over Italy is a big positive. You’re only one decent bit of amplification away from a cold snap.
  10. Good ECM, a better cutback on that trough SW would bring some surprises. But it looks loaded at D10 for at least a brief interlude. Could get a small 3 day cold snap for Jan/Early feb. Then perhaps something more sustained for Mid Feb
  11. Can’t remember the last time I saw a beast of tPV like the 18z. Pretty impressive. Also incredibly wet and the complete opposite of what we want!
  12. They’re awful for extremes I find. During the extreme heat of Summer they were under by a couple degrees here and in December over by a couple. Might be a coastal thing but I tend to just use the models available to me for a more accurate forecast.
  13. Lots blocked runs in the GEFS, hard to trust them how we even the zonal ones due to what’s happening up above. Either way if you’re after cold much like myself then we’re in a good position like 6.5. Lots of water to flow under the bridge but I’m optimistic about the 2nd week of Feb and onwards.
  14. Likening the EC D10 again. UKMO also looking attractive. Hypothetically speaking if we’re to get a cold spell, it’s likely going to evolve from a UK high surging North as the PV relents and allows heights rises into the pole, the positioning of the high will be important on whether we get cold as we could end up in an unfavourable position very easily!
  15. EC looks primed and ready for lift off at D10. Heights increasing over Greenland and across the pole, large UK high with amplification coming and a trigger low by Iceland. Shame it’s all day 10!
  16. Some good chances for those in Midlands north next week, those who get rain instead of snow will have to hope for them Scandi height rises. Must say our chances while nowhere near concrete are looking healthy.
  17. Lows becoming slow, heights randomly appears across the poles. Defintely not the sign of a strong vortex, while we may have a zonal pattern here things change quickly.
  18. Because a 70% chance is better than a 5% without one. You cannot guarantee cold and snow to the UK in any capacity, only increase your chances. An SSW is one the best chances we have at establishing the blocking to give us a chance.
  19. In past years, models find wedges of high pressure at a closer time frame rather than counting it down from the extended. May mean it’s slightly colder rain but it’s interesting nonetheless. GFS does find some weak heights near Svalbard however so might cause storm systems to track further south, could be a wet one!
  20. A bleak outlook but not the bleakest as @Singularitysays there’s been many years where a southerly track Atlantic and a weak wedge have produced. Dec 2017 Springs to my mind. Overall I don’t believe it’s hopeless and Scandi height rises would be welcome but we need to take in those Ec46 anomalies it’s great to see heights north but you want to see low heights south too.
  21. Agree here, do believe we’re coming to a close in regards of heights NW. With a weak PV height rises NE are our best chance Such a shame that we have a Greenland high but a west base one, one has to imagine the scenes here if we ended under the fire of those NE’lies near Iceland. Would have been one for the history books!
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