Snowman.
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Posts posted by Snowman.
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Doesn't mean it's not a downgrade? It's not a great run but it doesn't mean it's right either.
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Gone UKMO route.
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11 minutes ago, IDO said:
A glancing blow:
Will continue to change, very adamant it will just pass south of us.
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Some absolute filth in the ensembles. Personal favourite is below.
That is an exceptionally rare chart, Westerly flow in Sub -10c 850s, PV sat on the UK . Beats 2010 in my opinion just for the sheer lack of real heights. Absolutely insane.
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More runs needed.
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Wales burried, snow for many, snow to rain then back to snow for those further south. Red warning out 100% imagine the scenes.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5006083-
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Where are my wedges? I want my wedges back!
In all seriousness, wedges are rarely picked up in advanced so it is likely we would have to wait until the 15th before we start getting an idea of them, if any. This chase is going to be relentless without a solid block and relying of where Atlantic systems track and where wedges pop up so buckle up!
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Wales burried, snow for many, snow to rain then back to snow for those further south. Red warning out 100% imagine the scenes.
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Low off ESB completely disappeared, haha. Talk about uncertainty.
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Unsure opinions on the UKMO at 144. Feels a little bit to close especially with the lower heights between S GL and Iceland.
However, GEM doesn't get rid of the GL block almost at all, and heighs re-building North?!?
Feeling very cold.
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45 minutes ago, Derecho said:
The more experienced people in here will remember January 2013 when it was dragged kicking and screaming into a cold spell at T48. That was fun!
It was all of them VS UKMO.
UKMO trumped them all. Also was the only model that wasn't going for the Dec 2012 Easterly. To this day, if the UKMO isn't on board then I am never comfortable.
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She's a slapper!
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
Absolutely..
We want that trough dropping through Scandy as far south as possible..
That would benefit much more of the country..
Longevity too, I believe this also killed the Boxing Day channel low from 2021.
We’ve come so far, the further that thing drops the colder it will be; thus leading to more surprises for all.
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19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
I have a few mins ago and its horrible and i wish i didnt!!!!!mean is better!!!!!
This is why starting high risk is walking the tight rope, if things end up to far NW then it starts getting dire. The control has the north Easterly we crave, but it’s in Iceland!
For all, if you want your cold spell to have serious legs, you need pressure to be low south of the UK, having a ridge there is just asking for trouble.
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Dusting here, but more inland I imagine it’s a bit better.
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- Popular Post
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I think it’s good to raise the difference in the radar and what was shown in the models. Certainly a big blob in the SE, which none of the models really went with only showing light scattered showers.
Remember this next time a day 8 GFS chart shows a cold but dry UK!
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She's a belter!
Channel low inbound?
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28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I agree
That system forms out of a shortwave s of Iceland - barely has its origins in the Arctic. Can’t recall the last proper polar low we’ve actually seen
2015? Jan or Feb, hard to recall. Formed off West Coast of Scotland and travelled SE, the buzz that night was incredible.
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ECM has improved greatly so I will take its later output as just another coin in the well, considering how vastly different it is to all other outputs still.
Very happy with the 12z, we're starting to firm up on the GH, it's what happens after that's up in the air!
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1 minute ago, Derecho said:
Just a point of clarification I saw recently. The MJO phase 4 composite is still cold, so it will be interesting to see how this verifies....
Battleground cyclonic to me. Clearly we won't have a Greenland High that lasts forever but if we get a good blast of cold air from the north mid-month it wouldn't surprise me if we got an interesting battleground scenario to follow as heights to our NW wane (or move back to Scandi?)
Phase 5 isn't favourable but I expect that to come into play later in the month (post January 25th)
To me, this is Scandi wedge. Maybe high risk/high reward.
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ICON also giving some amplification off the ESB, might help the high stay pumped up longer. But a great start to the 12z
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52 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
As boring as this sounds, it is always best to just watch the radar if there is a signal for convection which there definitely is.
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Nice push of those heights NE of Iceland, trying onto give us a more NE’ly wind direction.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
feb1991blizzard and 2 months earlier