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Everything posted by Snowman.

  1. Just how it's embeded, that MJO chart is actually from 2018.
  2. Probably still quite cold as well. Looks like the high will re-amplify to give us another toppler.
  3. Been years since we've had a decent northerly toppler. Usually they're just very filtered with it turning cold for a few days then back to a westerly regieme.
  4. Southend Seafront is pretty bad here couple of restrung and such closed due to the flooding. Been a while since I’ve seen it this bad.
  5. It’s the Pacific ridge it got wrong here without it our high doesn’t have the potential link up to make it further North.
  6. The only saving grace is the downstream being better with a low dropping down through Scandi, if only we could get the GFS amplification and UKMO downstream...
  7. GFS is quite cold for most of the uk bar the far north of Scotland. Even an ice day in there when a small pool of -8 uppers travel through the channel.
  8. Heights low over the med and amplification returning. Still not quite there.
  9. Yet also different to what the 0z of the previous day was offering! models have got no clue atm
  10. Hiya mate, I think it’s the burn from last year when the MO where talking of easterly winds for half of winter, where the teleconnections were talking of blocking and a cold winter, and the EC monthly has height above average weeks in advanced to the north and the start was favourable for blocking and disruption. Yet we ended up with a marginal snow event in the south and that was about it. This year I have taken the approach of being cautious as well especially when it comes to the LRF. But as ever it is about the chase and the hunt for cold that keeps me here when
  11. Big 3 at T120: UKMO looking like the odd one out with the lows in the Atlantic. ECM looks to have more oomph down stream with the low over scotland more likely to head east. Safe to say confidence past D4 isn't great but some form of high pressure looking likely.
  12. 12z tantalisingly close to a decent NE block. The undercut attempt is weak and is then shoved NE. Overall happy with 12z so far hope the momentum contimues.
  13. Would be impossible to tell at this stage but it will mostly be considerably weak wherever it ends up so not the end of the world. You only need a wedge of heights and a cold Europe to get some snow going but it’s easier said than done!
  14. EC is actually flatter when compared to it’s mean, maybe more of a UK high which might keep things chilly for longer.
  15. You better hope the 18z isn’t correct because it would be one hell of a wet start the new decade.
  16. About half go for a wedge of some kind. About 5-6 hold promise. Control is just straigh dirty however, really would view it in Incognito mode.
  17. 12z GEFS 18z vs Not bad Much more of a wedge up north showing on the 18z leading to lower heights into europe.
  18. I think atm we’re just looking at the breaking of eggs to create an omelette. Unfortunately to get rid of the heights in Europe we’re likely to endure some terrible weather.
  19. If @ 192 the next low doesn't just run NE but disrupts SE or splits its would have been a very a good run.
  20. A little saying I learned on here a while ago. Get the block in place and the cold will follow. As cold spells especially easterlies sometimes have the warm air advection over the UK but when the block moves north high enough and the lows begin to slide cold air begins to be dragged east. Usually requiring a bit a luck to get right but it can still happen.
  21. Gotta give it a chance!! Continent doesn’t just exist in a constant cold once the block is up sufficiently we’re the end of the line when it comes to cold so it would take the longest.
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