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    Essex, Westcliff-On-Sea
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    Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters

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  1. They start somewhere tho. If you kept that easterly flow for 3 days or so it would be widespread -8s
  2. Mean on the GEFS has more negative tilt on the low in the Atlantic and better ridging north.
  3. But it would 2 days later. Unfortunately the 6z is too far east for us for us to benefit from the initial block. But at least something is showing on the models this morning.
  4. A shortwave appearing doesn't mean the background signals aren't favourable, the shortwave is part of the microscale when discussing background signals we're talking macro scale. PV centered over Russia is favourable for us because it's not in it's normal spot. Which simply increases our chance therefore making it more favourable. When you go down to the Horses you have a favourite horse but that doesn't mean it's going to win the race. Having an SSW is one of those favourable horses, but that doesn't mean it's going win the race!
  5. Favorable doesn't equal definite. The signals were favourable however with many things in weather not certain. So your statement makes little sense to me as they were favourable it's just not a definite, a low heading east out of the US of was 100miles further west or slower would have changed a lot for us.
  6. I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.
  7. Shaky putting it well, the change from 0z ensembles is defo a good thing. A colder cluster starting develop in the ens maybe? Trend or a wonk?
  8. Maybe if the ECM wasn't as steamrolly (a new word?) it might have stood a chance. Far enough way for an upgrade maybe?
  9. 18z Para is coming out now, while also the 6z para is coming out. 0z para will be lost forever
  10. I always try to find the silver lining in the model output even when it is bleak, but right now I can't find much other than an attempt from the Pacific side of ridging. The output is truly dire for those wanting cold because they still haven't had any snow yet. Might be time for a little break hopefully things look better in a week or so but time is running out and relying on March to deliver makes me feel a little uneasy.
  11. I think it's rained more today than it has over the entire rest of the winter.
  12. Rain mate? Sleet here by Prittlewell, proper sleet too big flakes in it.
  13. Attempting to settle here now temp has dropped as the heating has come on. Come on an inch is all I ask for!