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    Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters

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  1. Latest recon shows central pressure to be 946.1 and there was findings of 112kn, one off Cat 4. Very close now and hours ahead of schedule...
  2. HWRF has it making landfall as nearly as Cat 5. This model can overdo it at times but it is an option on the table which a few days ago really didn't seem likely. http://imgur.com/BqkD5lG
  3. Looks like I'm in a direct firing line for that storm over the Channel. I can imagine that as it hits land its going to blow.
  4. They start somewhere tho. If you kept that easterly flow for 3 days or so it would be widespread -8s
  5. Mean on the GEFS has more negative tilt on the low in the Atlantic and better ridging north.
  6. But it would 2 days later. Unfortunately the 6z is too far east for us for us to benefit from the initial block. But at least something is showing on the models this morning.
  7. A shortwave appearing doesn't mean the background signals aren't favourable, the shortwave is part of the microscale when discussing background signals we're talking macro scale. PV centered over Russia is favourable for us because it's not in it's normal spot. Which simply increases our chance therefore making it more favourable. When you go down to the Horses you have a favourite horse but that doesn't mean it's going to win the race. Having an SSW is one of those favourable horses, but that doesn't mean it's going win the race!
  8. Favorable doesn't equal definite. The signals were favourable however with many things in weather not certain. So your statement makes little sense to me as they were favourable it's just not a definite, a low heading east out of the US of was 100miles further west or slower would have changed a lot for us.
  9. I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.
  10. Shaky putting it well, the change from 0z ensembles is defo a good thing. A colder cluster starting develop in the ens maybe? Trend or a wonk?
  11. Maybe if the ECM wasn't as steamrolly (a new word?) it might have stood a chance. Far enough way for an upgrade maybe?
  12. 18z Para is coming out now, while also the 6z para is coming out. 0z para will be lost forever
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