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Vertical Limit

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    Near Bromley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences
    Heavy snow, lots of it.
  1. This almost sounds like a ramp Steve. I enjoy reading your posts a lot. I am a newbie but can see there is a NH hemisphere pattern change developing and tonight's ECM looks very bullish. The Artic high currently modelled and the MJO forecasts are obviously a good thing but are you confident of seeing a proper UK cold spell soon?
  2. SS, you have given me hope again. ECM looking encouraging.
  3. at 216 we have, an artic high, Scandi high, heights in the Atlantic and I think -8 850's over parts of UK! Canadian vortex still looks evil though. Sorry, can't post charts.
  4. Just for the sake of variety SS, could you please discuss something other than High pressure and European temperature averages. Perhaps a more lateral view of what the models are showing!
  5. Very interesting developments re increasing probablity of a SSW. Having read Cohens paper and the analogue years for a displaced and spilt vortex, it seems that our chances of a prolonged cold spell are much better if the vortex splits. Can vortex disintergration be defined as a split?
  6. This seems to tie in very nicely with the NW winter forecast for a prolonged cold spell from about Mid January to early Feb. Luvely jubbly!
  7. Hi Chio, you made a predicition a few weeks back for a Canadian Warming to occur (just a little later than perhaps you were expecting) - a great call, well done. The most notable year for a Canadian warming - 1962? I shouldn't have said that!
  8. Hi GP, in view of the lastest ECM32 day output (from Matt Hugo) which hints at a more zonal/mild pattern to emerge mid december onwards, are you suggesting the opposite may ocurr or at least it might be a continuation of the blocked pattern that looks likey to be inplace by early December. I think you may be but I'm not 100% sure!
  9. Fascinating stuff at present for what lies ahead at the end of the month and into the start of winter! What seems perplexing to me though (I'm a complete novice so probably completely wrong) is the latest couple of GFS runs are signalling a negative AO/NAO pattern, although in deep FL, the ECM32 day and Met Office suggest something similar. So what drivers are they seeing to suggest a blocked pattern when on the other hand, the upper/mid strat is cooling as 'normal', with no sign of any warming and if this cooling continues to progress unhindered into the lower strat then this would suggest an
  10. Great post Chio - thankyou. Your thoughts and explanations make it a lot easier for a novice like me to get to grips with understanding the complexities of the Strat. On a side note, I also would like to ask if there are any signals yet for a Canadian warming to occur or not, or is it still too early to tell? Regards VL
  11. I think 1962 just had the one Canadian warming event in November and that turned out to be an epic winter for us if you like severe cold and snow so some impact must have been made on the PV, perhaps driving it to Siberia. I think 1968 had 2 warming events and although it was a cold winter it wasn't as severe as 62 (I assume 68 had a Canadian warming in November and a SSW further down the line). Just going by these 2 years it suggests to me that a Canadian warming is not necessarily a predictor to a SSW warming later on and a combination of warmings does not necessarily make the winter any mor
  12. Many thanks Chio. I have been doing some very basic research and I think I'm right in saying that there is more frequency of an SSW event in an easterly QBO. I also read that SSW events occur on average every 2 years but not necessarily in sequence, IE: none occurred for a period during the late eighties and early nineties but there have been 9 SSW's since 2000. I wonder what the link is to the frequency of theses SSW events since 2000 and the QBO. I think I need to go back over yours and GP's posts to try and understand as much as I can about teleconnections, causes and the triggers. I do fin
  13. Hello everyone. As a newbie, I'm not 100% sure I should be posting here but I have a question about strat warming events which I hope somebody would be kind enough to answer. From reading through the posts and trying to understand the technical speak, I'm I correct in thinking a SSW event is different to Canadian warming event? If so, do they have different impacts on the PV and how it might affect the UK? Thanks VL
  14. Hi GP, as a complete newbie and still learning to crawl, I do enjoy reading your very informative posts as I do with Chio's posts and post from other knowledgable members. From a cold perspective, I am pleased to read that there are still some positive signals and projections that would induce a more blocked pattern as we head into winter. I will be keeping a close eye on this thread for further updates. Regards VL
  15. They're right about a foggy London Town and South East this morning but I just stuck my head out the back door and it is definitely not 20 degrees.
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