Ben Sainsbury

This is what me & @Met4Cast have gone for tomorrow. Tricky forecast but a few places will see some cracking storms.

I'd have to agree. UKV has been changing a lot over the last 6-12 hours, not that it should be discounted though.

Check AROME out for example. Extremely tricky forecast from this evening/tonight and through tomorrow. AROME would suggest one or two isolated SB storms further west, whereas further east across CS/SE England, some indications of some elevated? storms firing within high Theta-W. Remains to be seen how many elevated thunderstorms form across CS/SE England tonight, but this will have quite a significant impact on where and how strong thunderstorms are likely to be tomorrow.

I see nowt to be concerned about at this stage the further SE you are. W/NW areas likely to see more cloud with the risk of showers but even then I still expect temperatures to be warm with sunny spells at times. Wouldn’t surprise me for high pressure to remain more dominant than what the model suggest at the moment.

UKV & GFS going for a similar theme on Sunday (the day which looks most interesting to me), with scattered showers/thunderstorms at first, before merging into multi-cells. Seems to be an outside risk of an isolated supercell given the atmospheric profile, but would certainly be talking of more organised convection than the week just gone. Skew-T shows decent SB instability around 1,500J/Kg, more than sufficient although relatively skinny at upper levels and profile is pretty saturated. Some directional & speed shear, with decent veering in the low-levels. This combined with stream-wise vorticity and low LCLs suggests risk of funnel clouds or a weak tornado too. Other models more keen on elevated thunderstorms rather than surface-based, which would negate any severe risk. Merely speculating at this point, but hints of something promising somewhere across England/Wales on Sunday.

With a chart like that on the 18z with highest 850s arriving at peak time and if the SE were to avoid any sig rainfall next 10 days, then I don’t see why we wouldn’t break 38-39C again.

Was on the same Amarillo storm that day, chase convergence was unbelievable, not seen anything like it. Unsure how it didn't drop a tornado to be honest, wall-cloud was basically scrapping the floor.

Yeah managed my first tornado on Saturday which was a blast! Today, we were on one of the few tornado-warned storms N of Springfield, Missouri. We've got a down day tomorrow as we're setting up for upcoming risk over Southern Plains.

Looks like some cloud clearance beginning to appear around the Exeter region.

Chase is on the cards today. Going to head down to the M4 corridor, I think somewhere just west of Reading and that should give me plenty of time to make any calls. Mix of both really mate, for more active thunderstorms we do need some sunny spells to develop.

Should the models show similar tomorrow, I may also join you on the road!

Did enquire about the Netweather tours, but decided to try and get a group together instead. I'm heading out with 3 others on May 12th for 2 weeks so hopefully might run into some of you out there!

Dreaming of those big import night events this year! If EC 0z is anything to go by, we could be looking at a decent imported event next 10 days or so.

Still relatively sleety here in Wallingford, but seeing many more proper large white flakes.

Some heavier precipitation beginning to move in now, dewpoints are just above 0c but not massively so, so fingers crossed we can get a nice snow show!

Very little to show for here in Wallingford, seems to have lost its intensity really on approach. That saying, I feel our region may benefit more from this evenings action.

The UKV uses the same boundary conditions as the deterministic (UKMO) model. Therefore, you might expect the UKV to follow closer to the trend of the UKMO more often than not. So if the UKMO is "playing catch up" with the ECM, chances are the UKV might be as well. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

Unfortunately haven't got much time to post on here tonight as you can imagine work is... hectic! However, I am in agreement with what the Met O is going for over the next 36-48 hours. IMO, I think we'll see an Amber at some point, probably around the M4 corridor and covering Exmoor/Dartmoor/S Wales. Best of luck to you all and hope you get a nice covering of snow!

Not sure if already posted, but UKV 9z & AROME 6z decent for snow showers, Somerset, Bath into CS England tomorrow morning.

I really wouldn't rule this scenario out as I've seen it a number of times before. This would be the ultimate cherry on top, to prolong this very cold spell even further towards Christmas.

Much better set of GFS ensembles this morning, with confidence growing of the cold extending all the way through next week. After that some indications of a Scandi high developing, which may result in a temporary mild spell but it's all speculation at this point. Regarding the sliding low, it's better from all the main models today (bar the ICON, which is a bit further north), as we maintain a NE-ENE'ly flow. Admittedly, most of them produce little to no precipitation over the UK, but we know not to take these as gospel at this range. Now we await the EC!

GFS 6z at T114, slightly shallower and more elongated low in the Atlantic for sure. EDIT: Now deeper than 00z by T126 but remains further W.

The end of this run *could* be spectacular.

ICON beyond T180, if it were to exist, then imagine it would be a cracker. Sliding low across S England/N France, airmass over Scandinavia becoming increasingly colder, strong WAA towards Greenland too and the high strengthening further over Iceland. All a recipe for a very cold pattern over the UK.

Generally, the models have a decent grasp at the "big picture" but there's every chance the airmass might be a couple degrees warmer/colder, exactly as @Met4Cast highlighted in his previous post. One thing to add about observations too, is that observations at the surface are sparse enough as it is in the Arctic Circle. But observations at 1.5km height in the atmosphere in the Arctic Circle are even rarer.