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Ben Sainsbury

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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. GFS P 12z by T222 showing a SIGNIFICANT snow event for the majority North England southwards as we see the low undercut.
  2. GFS P 12z, following a similar route to its 6z run just a slightly slower evolution, very good nevertheless! By T138, the Azores and Arctic highs have linked and we looked primed for a very cold E/NE'ly.
  3. What even is happening to the GFS 12z by T300, I've not seen anything like this ever. Oh my the easterlies!
  4. Conversely, the pattern is extremely volatile within the 4/5 day time frame and will lead to differences thereafter and it is model discussion so why not comment pre 96? No malice intended I just don't see a problem! Safe to say I think GFS 6z will get there, just appears to be a slower evolution. Less amplified as others have noted too! Also the GFS is painting an extremely snowy 24 hours from T90 onwards.
  5. GFS P 18z, by T102 it is clear that much more energy is being sent southwards in comparison to 12z.
  6. Final post from me, I'm having way too much fun over a GFS chart. Am I right in thinking the down-welling of easterly winds in the troposphere has fully occurred by this point
  7. According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!
  8. What trigger low are you on about? The one moving off into Eastern Europe? ALERT: -14 uppers along the East Coast of UK!
  9. Look at the Arctic High spreading towards Greenland, I'm confident that we'll see an easterly here. Hope we can see the heights out in the Atlantic link up.
  10. Nothing too much to note on GFS 18z at the moment by T66... The low coming off the US East Coast is a tad further west along with the rest of the pattern to the west of the UK. Fingers crossed for an improvement going forward now.
  11. Agreed with Shaky, very poor 18z run and is much worse with a much flatter pattern. 12z chart first, 18z second. Back-edge snow still possible on the front moving SE but for the most part cold rain.
  12. From what I know the trough drops into Europe too far east and not enough energy drops into Europe with it. This allows the high to move eastwards across us bringing westerlies.
  13. GFS 18z could well and truly lead on to a long lasting easterly for sure. The snow event at +132 for comparison, the uppers are slightly more marginal, M4 northwards most favourable.
  14. A warmer continental easterly here now by the GFS P. The synoptic pattern is there again but you just need that cold pool to feed on! And then as if by magic we go on to form our own cold pool!
  15. I feel like once the low does dive SE'wards, we may see *possibly* the Canadian vortex move towards the UK a little earlier.
  16. ICON 12z not a great start, low is slightly deeper and a tad further North. Haven't reached the important frames yet tho.
  17. Here is the 6pm and 9pm charts for the one just posted, there's no way it can go from one frame to the next looking like that on the GFS P. Defo an error somewhere.
  18. Here is an example taken from the latest GFS P run from Tue 15th at 3 & 6pm. It's not right.
  19. Bizarrely GFS P precipitation charts on Netweather are broken and seem to show continuous precipitation over the whole map on various frames.
  20. 850hpa is approx 1km up into the atmosphere. According to environmental lapse rate as temp declines by about 10’c per km. I’d expect temperatures to struggle to get above 1’c at a max, if there is snow cover temperatures wouldn’t get above freezing. All depends on air flow too which affects lapse rate.
  21. Check that out, the GFS P with a 1050mb high over Greenland, looking forward to this. Quicker route to cold bc of orientation of the high. EDIT: 1055mb! Is a breathtaking run.
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