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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Bloody beat me to it! Looks impressive nevertheless. Typical the only night shift I have this week, is on Wednesday night. Would be willing to chase this otherwise. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Still no consistency... as @ChannelThunder says, ECM looks great for Cornwall! Elevated convection is one of the most difficult challenges for NWP models at this point in time, so it seems Wednesday night may throw some surprises! On the flip side, nothing may develop at all, but I know which scenario I'd prefer. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well... Wednesday night into Thursday is looking good on the UKV, for the western half of the UK anyway. Moderate CAPE in a high sheared environment with steep mid-level lapse rates. Good signs, we just need some consistency. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Correct. Warm-cored system, developing over SSTs of ~27C. To make matters funnier too, what looks to be a tropical system, possibly hurricane, heading east towards Portugal at T276. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Given flow is more southerly or south-southeasterly, it looks like if we do get some storms, then more should be at risk than recent events! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we're going for high temperatures then we need to hope that the flow across the UK passes over the Channel from the Near Continent rather than the North Sea. It looks like we'll have a few days of drying out the surface before the warmest 850s move over, so I still think we'll exceed 30C. The NetWx MR shows what may be possible? Going for 33C locally on Monday and Tuesday isn't too dissimilar. -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Got this one too in a great spot in Can Pastilla, Mallorca. Just needs to zoom out a bit. https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/spain/balearic-islands/can-pastilla-mallorca.html -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Anyone have any webcams they're aware of in the Balearics? I've got a mate in Ibiza at the moment, but his hangover is probably preventing him from looking outside for me... Only I've got is this so far, looks a bit gusty. 【LIVE】 Webcam Ibiza - Sant Antoni de Portmany | SkylineWebcams WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Travel to the Balearic Islands with our Ibiza webcam on Sant Antoni de Portmany beach! Spend your crazy summer in Europe's most vibrant destination! -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Keeping you happy then @Alderc 2.0 -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Classic day of sunny spells and thundery showers across large parts of the UK today. If we get good sunny spells across Eastern half of the UK, then storms may be able to utilise modest speed shear and may represent some organisation. Should be a reasonable amount of lightning about today. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That is a fantastic shout. I’ll have to look more into the 2016 event. At first glance maybe 2016 shows bit more digging south of the trough which may allow a slightly greater advection of hot air towards the southeast. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
If UKV 9z is anything to go by could be a very thundery day tomorrow across the SE. AROME 6z was a shift northwards too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The stormforecast.eu shows some interesting probability charts for the far SE. Shows how much uncertainty there is at this stage as this has a 50-75% lightning probability stretching NE from Somerset to Lincolnshire, despite the majority of our main convective models showing very little. Not sure I've seen a 5-10% 2cm+ hail line over any part of the UK at any point this year? If we can improve on confidence with regards to the far SE seeing something, this would definitely fall within my chase territory. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK! If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess! -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Seems to be on the boundary between the warm airmass to the south and the cold airmass coming down from the north. Where that boundary lies there could be some pretty torrential thunderstorms. A lot of the models have these over the Channel/N France, but UKV has consistently shown these developing over the UK. Some very strong deep layer shear being modelled by UKV, with some large CAPE to the S/SE, so some organised storms are possible but need greater confidence before we can firm up on the details. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I have also decided to bail on a chase tonight given the uncertainties... to add further doubt into your mind -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This seems to be a brilliant opportunity to get some very important data. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Because elevated convection is one of the biggest challenges in forecasting at the moment I hope they didn't use the word frequent lightning... eek! -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yep, you do make a good point! Although, always easier to say in hindsight -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Judging by the models, I still think anywhere east of Cambridge is within a good chance at some lively thunderstorms tonight. Disappointing I know for the rest of us... -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This is the matrix for the warning, which only suggests a low impact scenario. I completely get you though, and normally I'm not the biggest fan of the Met Office warnings either. But I think given what the models were showing, this was a reasonable issuance of a low-end yellow warning. We can agree to disagree, I always respect your opinion. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Because torrential rain/flash-flooding and the occasional lightning strike produced by the storms can pose considerable risks to the general public during rush-hour. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Was only expecting sporadic strikes for the stuff this morning, so I don't think it was too far from general expectations. It does appear like the tongue instability struggled to advect far enough northwards however, with any lightning really being confined to the channel. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Quite possibly but also, the thunderstorms at 06:00-12:00 will pose a risk to those travelling to work during rush hour etc. Whereas overnight thunderstorms pose much less of a risk to safety.