Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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That Bridport cell is going wild... Lightningmaps wildly overestimate number of strikes, but even that's suggesting one a second.
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With concerns over the saturation of the atmosphere, I can't lie these storms are more active than I was expecting.
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Someone tell @Alderc 2.0 to wake up, probably see some decent lightning to the south-west.
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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
It’s really slow, I wonder if it’s actually smaller cells energising as they come close to the coast then dying off and being replaced by another
Looks that way!
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Remains to be seen how far these cells can remain active as they move onshore. Models suggest they won't remain very active as they continue further northwards, so if they carry on as they are, then can only be positive signs going forward. Possibly suggesting larger/stronger pool of instability if so.
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Quite frankly gutted I missed the cluster of severe thunderstorms over Lincolnshire/The Wash yesterday. I think I disregarded the risk too easily due to the flip-flopping nature of the models.
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Just SE of Bedale in good position for firing cells to SSW. Plenty of towering AcCas now.
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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
I suspect Chris has hit the nail on the head with this.
Yet seemingly all the clag didn't have an impact on the storms over the far N of England or Peterborough.
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7 minutes ago, Supacell said:
I'm getting a bit concerned now that there will be these two big storms and little else. And I'm sat between the two of them.
I'm very conflicted and struggling to figure out why it's not quite happening here yet...
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Currently just W of Thirsk, waiting for developments. Models seem keen on destabilisation over the N Mids in next hour or two.
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Currently just E of Harrogate, off the A1(M), with a spectacular view. Warm and humid with good clearance to my south. Seems all the ingredients are coming together.
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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:
I'll be heading north today. Likely to position myself near the A1 somewhere east of Leeds which offers a quick route northwards. A lot of disparity between models again but I'm going to follow the Arome which pretty much nailed yesterday's storms. This would therefore favour North Yorkshire from somewhere like Selby up to York.
Similar idea to myself, A1/A64 interchange is my target. Good road network. Storm motion likely to be NNE-NE which favours the A64.
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With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow.
Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!
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AROME 18z possibly one of the best charts I've seen modelled for the UK on Sunday. Locally 2,000J/Kg+ in a moderately sheared environment and develops into what appears to be a brutal surface-based MCS for UK standards.
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Ooooooh!!!,...i l ike the look of that for Sunday,thanks Ben.
Ooooooh!!!,...i l ike the look of that for Sunday,thanks Ben.
Ooooooh!!!,...i l ike the look of that for Sunday,thanks Ben.
Liked the look of it so much you had to say it 3 times
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Both days are an improvement on latest probabilistic charts. Sunday I may add shows a small 15-25% of hail >2cm, which is something I've never seen over the UK since this product has been released. Also a 5% probability for 5cm hail too.
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16 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..
...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..
You'll do very well to get a day with all 3 important factors for big storm development. I actually prefer a day like tomorrow over a typical sunshine and showers day, these storms likely to be incredibly photogenic and producing prolific lightning if they develop.
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5 minutes ago, pad199207 said:
Boom!
The cap has broken!
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9 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:
It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster. Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm.
I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.Exactly this, in the latest Met O video on Twitter Aiden mentions "significant thunderstorms" but these will be incredibly isolated and I'm sure will catch a lot of people out this weekend if they're caught in one!
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8 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:Do we have any storm forecasters left? Sorely missing ConvectiveWx
You could say so, but today and this weekend is a forecasters nightmare. AROME 6z is worlds different to the 0z. The only agreement we have at the moment are isolated thunderstorms across the Midlands tomorrow evening, followed by elevated storms across the far SW tomorrow night. But even then, there are considerable uncertainties here.
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10 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend.
For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?
And here it is, 2% chance of >5cm hail for Sunday afternoon...
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Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend.
For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?
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47 minutes ago, NUT said:
Ireland firing up a couple of really quite strong cells on radar there
Models not seemingly had the best grasp of this, can only be a positive sign going forward for the next few days. UKV now has strong surface-based storms developing on Saturday afternoon too.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Ben Sainsbury
Forecast steering winds remain NNE-NE for the rest of the night. Storms aren't likely to upscale until the overnight hours, so plenty of time to work with yet and instability is expected to continue advecting northwards.
However, I think unless your in the far S, SE or EA then I'd be surprised to see anything else tonight.