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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Forecast steering winds remain NNE-NE for the rest of the night. Storms aren't likely to upscale until the overnight hours, so plenty of time to work with yet and instability is expected to continue advecting northwards. However, I think unless your in the far S, SE or EA then I'd be surprised to see anything else tonight. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That Bridport cell is going wild... Lightningmaps wildly overestimate number of strikes, but even that's suggesting one a second. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
With concerns over the saturation of the atmosphere, I can't lie these storms are more active than I was expecting. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Someone tell @Alderc 2.0 to wake up, probably see some decent lightning to the south-west. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Looks that way! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Remains to be seen how far these cells can remain active as they move onshore. Models suggest they won't remain very active as they continue further northwards, so if they carry on as they are, then can only be positive signs going forward. Possibly suggesting larger/stronger pool of instability if so. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Quite frankly gutted I missed the cluster of severe thunderstorms over Lincolnshire/The Wash yesterday. I think I disregarded the risk too easily due to the flip-flopping nature of the models. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just SE of Bedale in good position for firing cells to SSW. Plenty of towering AcCas now. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yet seemingly all the clag didn't have an impact on the storms over the far N of England or Peterborough. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm very conflicted and struggling to figure out why it's not quite happening here yet... -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Currently just W of Thirsk, waiting for developments. Models seem keen on destabilisation over the N Mids in next hour or two. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Currently just E of Harrogate, off the A1(M), with a spectacular view. Warm and humid with good clearance to my south. Seems all the ingredients are coming together. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Similar idea to myself, A1/A64 interchange is my target. Good road network. Storm motion likely to be NNE-NE which favours the A64. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
AROME 18z possibly one of the best charts I've seen modelled for the UK on Sunday. Locally 2,000J/Kg+ in a moderately sheared environment and develops into what appears to be a brutal surface-based MCS for UK standards. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Liked the look of it so much you had to say it 3 times -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Both days are an improvement on latest probabilistic charts. Sunday I may add shows a small 15-25% of hail >2cm, which is something I've never seen over the UK since this product has been released. Also a 5% probability for 5cm hail too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
You'll do very well to get a day with all 3 important factors for big storm development. I actually prefer a day like tomorrow over a typical sunshine and showers day, these storms likely to be incredibly photogenic and producing prolific lightning if they develop. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The cap has broken! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Exactly this, in the latest Met O video on Twitter Aiden mentions "significant thunderstorms" but these will be incredibly isolated and I'm sure will catch a lot of people out this weekend if they're caught in one! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
You could say so, but today and this weekend is a forecasters nightmare. AROME 6z is worlds different to the 0z. The only agreement we have at the moment are isolated thunderstorms across the Midlands tomorrow evening, followed by elevated storms across the far SW tomorrow night. But even then, there are considerable uncertainties here. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend. For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening? -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Models not seemingly had the best grasp of this, can only be a positive sign going forward for the next few days. UKV now has strong surface-based storms developing on Saturday afternoon too.