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Ben Sainsbury

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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. I have no doubt that the storms next week will be worse than Thursday and a much more widespread too. The CAPE amounts are enormous and was an area in Thursday's storms which could've done with being higher. End of next week particularly looks very dangerous.
  2. Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late
  3. Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.
  4. Extraodinary stuff from GFS 6z. By T171 it has the 26'c isotherm over the far SW.
  5. And I assume won’t be particularly active because the MCS is taking up all the “juice”?
  6. Yep at Brighton Pier atm, half a dozen flashes last 10-15 mins and seems to be back-building too!
  7. True, I was waiting until if ConvectiveWeather were putting out a Moderate or not, and they have so I'm sold!
  8. I don't know the area well whatsoever so I'm heading there and just seeing what works out haha.
  9. Such a predicament, my first potential long distance chase today for myself. As many have said the risk seems to have shunted eastwards; I might target in and around the Brighton area seems to be a good spot whether it's a direct hit or from distance.
  10. We've had 26mm here in Reading and plenty more to come according to radar. Drains are almost full and localised flooding in places atm.
  11. Just had a flash of lightning just to the south of me, was unexpected!
  12. It's quite interesting because particularly later this evening across the SE/East Anglia there is quite a decent overlap of ML CAPE, DLS and SRH. I wondering whether we might see something more organised for a time move its way in from the continent.
  13. This is what I thought of last Friday, EURO4 nailed the intensity and distribution of the showers just like this other model did. Hopefully they're in line this time too.
  14. Short video of lightning I captured in Portishead on a short chase this evening. CAA2970E-A947-4454-BEFF-D470E9216A99.MOV
  15. Quite complex, some of the charts. http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
  16. Birmingham is going to get absolutely nailed in the next 30 mins/hour. As cells continue to develop to east of main cell.
  17. Yes! Most potent shower of the day so far, shows the conditions are there and being utilized.
  18. Haven't been around a while, however back to storm season and possibly something quite juicy today. Already some early morning convection stretching from Portsmouth towards Brighton, according to AROME these will be the main focal for today as they head NNW.
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