Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
  • Posts

    2,330
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. At Day 5, it's behind ECM, UKMO and GEM. At Day 10, ECM is far superior, GEM and GFS close but GEM is marginally better. The IMD model is actually 2nd best at 10 days, but I am unfamiliar with this model. Maybe India Meteorological Department model? For those that would like a play around with the verification statistics themselves, they can be found here: GFS Verification: G2G All Models (ACC) WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996119
  2. At Day 5, it's behind ECM, UKMO and GEM. At Day 10, ECM is far superior, GEM and GFS close but GEM is marginally better. The IMD model is actually 2nd best at 10 days, but I am unfamiliar with this model. Maybe India Meteorological Department model? For those that would like a play around with the verification statistics themselves, they can be found here: GFS Verification: G2G All Models (ACC) WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  3. Looking at the bigger picture we have a Scandi high inside T72 with what is still a cold easterly with -8, maybe even -10 at 850hPa. We'd be shouting for this just a month ago! When we look forward at the possibility of the high retrogressing towards Greenland. It's a much more believable transition since we've already got the Scandi high in place. If we were under a zonal set-up with the same level of agreement for a Greenland high, I'd have less confidence than the set-up we have at the moment if that makes sense. I'm not saying the high will retrogress towards Greenland, but from experience this is realistic solution and with all global models generally on-board, it's difficult not to be quietly optimistic.
  4. I think it's quite a good warning that the Met Office have issued. I'm not sure many people expect much from it, but there's definitely a chance that the models don't even have a good grasp even at this short range and that we could see a little snow more widely across SW England (given recent slight northerly adjustments).
  5. Nothing but scare-mongering and is exactly why the Met Office get blame thrown at when there is this mis-information.
  6. Looks like storm near Bath has undergone a right-split, with an uptick in lightning temporarily.
  7. Seeing a few CBs flashing away as they're clearing NE'wards. Much better visibility now than earlier.
  8. Tonight just shows why elevated thunderstorms are one of the most challenging types of weather to forecast. Mine and @Met4Cast forecast has been pretty poor to be quite honest and that's despite doing a full university dissertation on UK elevated thunderstorms
  9. Some further developments on the far western fring of this large MCS. Maybe something even closer to home for us in Bristol/Bath/Gloucester next hour or so if it becomes electrified.
  10. A lot of cloud and muck obscuring the occasional flashes here!
  11. Thought the lightning didn't want to stray into international waters
  12. Can see occasional flashes from cell N of Southampton from here!
  13. With large thunderstorms being present earlier, there may be a bit of cold pooling about potentially? Unfortunately, I don't expect to see much/any more lightning from this mass of rain.
  14. A number of elevated thunderstorms developing on the S coast... Not sure models were particularly keen in recent runs for this to happen. The amount of lightning in the channel right now is pretty nuts! Just shows never to write any event off too early.
  15. Hoping with the rash of elevated showers developing over S Devon/Somerset, that some of these may turn electrified.
  16. Forecast steering winds remain NNE-NE for the rest of the night. Storms aren't likely to upscale until the overnight hours, so plenty of time to work with yet and instability is expected to continue advecting northwards. However, I think unless your in the far S, SE or EA then I'd be surprised to see anything else tonight.
  17. That Bridport cell is going wild... Lightningmaps wildly overestimate number of strikes, but even that's suggesting one a second.
  18. With concerns over the saturation of the atmosphere, I can't lie these storms are more active than I was expecting.
  19. Someone tell @Alderc 2.0 to wake up, probably see some decent lightning to the south-west.
  20. Remains to be seen how far these cells can remain active as they move onshore. Models suggest they won't remain very active as they continue further northwards, so if they carry on as they are, then can only be positive signs going forward. Possibly suggesting larger/stronger pool of instability if so.
  21. UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong
  22. Quite frankly gutted I missed the cluster of severe thunderstorms over Lincolnshire/The Wash yesterday. I think I disregarded the risk too easily due to the flip-flopping nature of the models.
  23. Just SE of Bedale in good position for firing cells to SSW. Plenty of towering AcCas now.
×
×
  • Create New...