Ben Sainsbury

Me and another chaser are situated in Seaford, East Sussex at the moment.

Have been toying with where to position tonight, some models (UKV in particular) favour widespread initiation in the Channel, whereas other models (AROME, ICON etc) initiate some convection directly over East Sussex/NW Kent. UKV performed very well for the 18/19 May event, which seems to be turning out quite similar to tonight.

Given it's elevated convection, then almost near impossible, particularly for this part of the world!

No way are you telling me that 18/19th May of this year didn't deliver you a good storm, I literally positioned myself near your area!

Ultimately that follows climatology and there's nothing we can do about it!

Well for our particular situation, since we are an island on the NW side of the near continent, when we get a high Theta-W airmass advected northwards towards the UK, the highest Theta-W will be located to our E/SE over the mainland continent as the airmass is warmer. Because the airmass is warmer, this creates a larger temperature difference/gradient, between the warm airmass and the cold temperatures at higher levels, therefore more instability. So when we have an MCS developing and moving N/NE towards the UK, the greatest instability will always be located on the eastern side of the system (due to higher Theta-W values) which is why the most frequent lightning is found here.

UKV 6z is one of the more extreme MCS/Squall lines I've seen modelled by the UKV in recent times.

Nicely explained! Agree with what you've said here, I do expect something quite active and organised to develop across the far SE tonight. Models are converging on elevated activity (likely from AcCas) initiating first over SE England/East Anglia, before a more organised squall line moves NNE-NE from the near continent. Might also have to jump on the road myself!

Good shout regarding low-topped supercell (albeit very low risk), particularly as you say if the models a little out with positioning compared to what is happening. One or two models (UKV in particular) much more keen on shower development, but I'm not buying it at the moment. Regardless, I'd expect to see a few funnel clouds reported tomorrow if we see some convection kick off.

Assuming there is a Kent Clipper and visibility is decent, you'll have no problem seeing a good light show in Ashford. But unfortunately, forecasting elevated storms and nailing down which places will be good to see lightning, is never easy!

The dream! But jokes aside, you might be in a decent spot for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Has a Kent Clipper written all over it.

I am back in Wally! Sums it up because there's a massive storm over my hometown in Bristol right now!

Absolute brick lemon all here, nothing even remotely interesting

Sferics just south of Reading. Radar looking a lot more appealing now than an hour ago, as the murk drifts away northwards.

Unless you see something this morning, then pretty unlikely. Tomorrow, should have a better chance. This is just where I expect to see the first developments, not the only developments! Don't take my circle drawing as gospel either

Think here will be the focal point for any large developments in the next few hours. Cloud thinning, cumulus congestus evident on Sat24.

Yes exactly. However, if we see storms kick off they'll become rather widespread with frequent lightning in places hence the MDT zone that Dan has issued.

Was this a storm chase? If you're chasing tomorrow I definitely wouldn't advise Manchester

This is one of the better sites I've seen: https://weathertogether.net/weather-101/how-to-read-skew-t-charts/

Not out chasing today as don't feel risk is high enough, but target for me would be N Devon. Combination of wind convergence and orographic lifting (Exmoor) could result in a train of thunderstorms developing and could lead to some (possibly severe) flash flooding. Think tomorrow will produce more widespread activity across England & Wales. Wednesday looking confined to far S & SE England atm.

Very interesting right-mover just approaching the Irish border. Long-lived and intense core to it, would love to see the structure on it right now.

This is what me and @Met4Cast have issued for tomorrow: Long story short, convergence zones setting up across S Ireland, SW England & E/NE England during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing here but nothing too extreme currently. Into the evening, a low approaches SW England and numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop on the leading edge of the trough/occluded front across SW/CS England and S Wales. I'd expect some fairly frequent lightning at times.

You've lost me Just for the rest of the people here, it might be helpful to explain what "Storm-Relative Wind", "Streamwise Vorticity" and "Net Vorticity Tilting" is

ESTOFEX have a very talented bunch of forecasters, but imo I don't feel they pay much attention to the UK. Regardless, It's just clear they're too busy at the moment to issue a forecast for Europe as they're voluntary.

ECM 12z increasingly unstable for Mon-Wed now. Tuesday has 1200J/Kg across Central England which is some of the highest I've seen from the model for our shores.