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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Have been toying with where to position tonight, some models (UKV in particular) favour widespread initiation in the Channel, whereas other models (AROME, ICON etc) initiate some convection directly over East Sussex/NW Kent. UKV performed very well for the 18/19 May event, which seems to be turning out quite similar to tonight.
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Well for our particular situation, since we are an island on the NW side of the near continent, when we get a high Theta-W airmass advected northwards towards the UK, the highest Theta-W will be located to our E/SE over the mainland continent as the airmass is warmer. Because the airmass is warmer, this creates a larger temperature difference/gradient, between the warm airmass and the cold temperatures at higher levels, therefore more instability. So when we have an MCS developing and moving N/NE towards the UK, the greatest instability will always be located on the eastern side of the system (due to higher Theta-W values) which is why the most frequent lightning is found here.
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Nicely explained! Agree with what you've said here, I do expect something quite active and organised to develop across the far SE tonight. Models are converging on elevated activity (likely from AcCas) initiating first over SE England/East Anglia, before a more organised squall line moves NNE-NE from the near continent. Might also have to jump on the road myself!
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Good shout regarding low-topped supercell (albeit very low risk), particularly as you say if the models a little out with positioning compared to what is happening. One or two models (UKV in particular) much more keen on shower development, but I'm not buying it at the moment. Regardless, I'd expect to see a few funnel clouds reported tomorrow if we see some convection kick off.
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Not out chasing today as don't feel risk is high enough, but target for me would be N Devon. Combination of wind convergence and orographic lifting (Exmoor) could result in a train of thunderstorms developing and could lead to some (possibly severe) flash flooding. Think tomorrow will produce more widespread activity across England & Wales. Wednesday looking confined to far S & SE England atm.
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This is what me and @Met4Cast have issued for tomorrow: Long story short, convergence zones setting up across S Ireland, SW England & E/NE England during the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing here but nothing too extreme currently. Into the evening, a low approaches SW England and numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop on the leading edge of the trough/occluded front across SW/CS England and S Wales. I'd expect some fairly frequent lightning at times.