Ben Sainsbury
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Posts posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Eagle Eye What an absolute beauty!
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WeatherArc Have to agree with you there, a higher chance of tornadoes today and less conditional. Target for me would be somewhere between Iowa City and Davenport, along I80. Right on the tip of the moisture plume and some impressive profiles as you have highlighted.
Fond memories of Iowa, captured a weak tornado on my first ever US chase day last year just SE of Des Moines in Knoxville.
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Obviously, highlighted Dodge City/Hays last night… Managed to get storm initiation but this was the likely environment it was working with.
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Alderc 2.0 Only a handful, a tad surprised to be honest. Wonder if it was anything to do with the moisture quality this time as that was expected to be adequate but not great, I’ll have to have a look.
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Assuming sufficient moisture advection, I actually reckon the 10% hatched will be realised tonight. Get the impression we may see a significant tornado. We’ve been missing such large instability from the majority of setups this year and I’m seeing some huge 3CAPE values being modelled tonight.
If I had to guess, central parts of Kansas would be my sweet spot, maybe Hays? Though, people in Dodge City will need to be on high alert.
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Eagle Eye Very cool shelf cloud at least mate, if nothing else!
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Particularly concerned about the set-up tomorrow, could well and truly be some strong-violent long track tornadoes. Tonight seems to be trending upwards too with regards to tornado risk.
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Dxnielwashere That is a cracking funnel cloud there mate!
Interestingly the cell undergoes a split right before you observed that funnel cloud.
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Anyone near Plymouth that can get a visual on the storm?
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Already some right-moving cells out in the channel. Looks like it will be an interesting day!
This cell really kicking into gear after a storm merger and now getting "that look"
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Eagle Eye One heck of a profile that is for UK standards. If only we had >1000 J/Kg of CAPE...
Just hoping we get sufficient instability to build with enough diurnal heating. Definitely capable of a low-topped supercell with large 3CAPE.
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AndrewHamm Hi mate! It's really anyone's best guess at this point. With an early terminating El Nino, it looks like an active season is likely which is good, however even within an active season you will inevitably have quiet periods.
I have attached the latest long-range CFS forecast for April and May below:
Obviously, these need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt but they currently suggest above average rainfall across our typical chase region, however there is a greater consensus for significantly above average rainfall for May. Now this would suggest that May is potentially the better month to go this year, however should April start off very dry, the CFS could be indicating a very active end of April.
Personally, confidence is just a little higher for the May 6-15 period vs April 21-May 1 imo. Both periods look good at this point, but that's not to say there won't be some quieter spells within the months of April and May.
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Dreadful scenes across Indiana and Ohio, basically worst case scenarios. Doesn't look like changing anytime soon either... I worry it may be a bad year for fatalities, May and June in particular.
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WeatherArc Some of those soundings are ridiculous. As you say, if we can get discrete development that can interact with the front and become surface-based, then these storms will be supportive of producing a tornado and potentially strong.
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Much appreciated for all the posts @WeatherArc. Trey has an exceptional channel with all things severe weather/tornadoes, and highly recommend checking out for those that want to learn more.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Literally deja vu to a few weeks back. The low is almost definitely going over N France isn't it.
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3 hours ago, Dean E said:
I'd say a swing and a miss for us southerners. Latest models below:
06z GFS 00z EC 06z ICON 00z ARPEGE
I'm actually fed up of this system, after all this time of course it would miss us like this. Toys have been thrown out the pram.
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For what its worth, almost all the main runs so far this morning clip the far SW with some light snow. GFS 0z is definitely the furthest north, whilst GEM makes a further encroach across SE England. We're really talking 50-100 miles here, will have to see what UKMO and EC show later.
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29 minutes ago, JimBob said:
I don’t know why people suddenly think this rain/snow on Tuesday/Wednesday is suddenly going to jump 100 miles north?! It’s now 48 hours away and the models have pretty much cross model agreement that it’s going to cause very little impact to the UK, wishful thinking from a few on this site.
Generally, in the world of weather 100 miles really isn't much! We've seen with Spanish Plume events for example, that despite cross model agreement things can be 50+ miles further east. Instances like Wednesday, where you've got a low sliding across N France is an incredibly delicate evolution, so I'd still expect to see some changes (good or bad). As @AWD says, it's not over until it's on radar, but that's just my hopeful weather nerd brain wanting snow
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Huge shift in the GEFS 00z this morning for my particular location (also representative for those south of M4). 50% of ensemble members now have snow reaching the Bristol area vs a quarter of the members at 18z.
If we take London, we've also doubled the percentage chance from 28% to 56%. A big EC run coming up.
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ARPEGE completely avoids the south coast at all with regards to the same system. Still a mixed bag!
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After chasing my first time last year, I am back yet again this year for my 2nd chase. Going out for just under two weeks right at the end of May. Fingers crossed we can transition to ENSO-neutral and possibly La Nina as quickly as we can. Latest update suggests ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance) which shows a quicker transition to neutral than the previous update.
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GEM and UKMO very very similar at T144, similar in a good way too.
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2024 Tornado Season
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
NOAA Seasonal Forecasts updated today and this is what you'd like to see as a storm chaser going into May.