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Ben Sainsbury

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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Very loud thunder here, sounds different though and I can't put my finger on it.
  2. Storms across East Sussex/Kent have the potential to turn marginally-severe for a time.
  3. Can see very occasional bright lightning to my SE, what a pleasant surprise.
  4. Hopefully once the rain clears you lot on the south coast will have a much better lightning show on your hands!
  5. Storms taking longer to reach the South Coast because steering flow is turning increasing NW/WNW’ly.
  6. Models don’t have any intense activity moving much further north than the south coast. I personally think anywhere west of Bournemouth is out of the action unless you’re directly on the coast in S Devon and you should see lightning offshore tonight.
  7. Very unlikely it'll make it as far north as you unfortunately. The MCS on the coast of Brest is looking as good as ever atm, shows there is still potential further west.
  8. Remember lightning activity with elevated storms are also well under-captured on lightning detectors too. Activity that is dying ahead of the storms in the channel are ahead of the high theta-w which is slowly moving northwards. Will improve as the evening goes on.
  9. UKV 12z is more impressive than previous runs. Though it decays the line of storms very quickly, however it done the same with the storms earlier off the NW coast of France and they've still been going on.
  10. AROME 6z has a very intense MCS just south of Bournemouth tonight 2am.
  11. A few observations I've notice, one it appears the MCS is further north than what the hi-res models show. Fortunately steering flow current NNW and should move NW then WNW through the afternoon, with new convection continually developing on the east side of the system. What is different today compared to a typical Spanish plume is that the steering follow is more NNW/NW than NNE/NE and normally favouring more central areas than SE regions.
  12. The storms in the channel recording 150 strikes/min at the moment and it's no surprise why looking at the Sat24. Unfortunately won't be out tonight, due to one I'm moving house properly for the first time tomorrow and two I cracked my windscreen on my drive home from my chase on Tuesday
  13. I mean that is what a plume is, in simple terms for UK sense "the advection of warm air from the south"?
  14. "An elevated mixed layer from NW Africa and the Spanish Plateau shifts NE-ward and is advected over rich low-level moisture over the W Mediterranean Sea and the French lowlands" has Spanish Plume written all over it
  15. Obviously the FAX and the modified plume image aren't going to be identical. I mean the jet axis in this situation imo sort of "ingests" the low from the south across Iberia. I mean it's quite an awkward non-clean cut setup anyway but I can understand where you're coming from
  16. Unfortunately not every Spanish Plume is a 'typical' Spanish Plume (like the one you have highlighted). The variation of the "Modified Spanish Plume" as I referred to before (with credits to Sue Gray & Lewis) looks a bit more like this: As quoted by Suzanne Gray & Lewis "Unlike the classical Spanish plume the upper-level trough has stretched and thinned equator-ward and is forward (northwest–southeast) tilted. This can lead to a cut-off upper-level feature which is typically centred to the northwest of the Bay of Biscay." Taken from their paper (Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK). However, we can agree to disagree of course, but yeah I do admit its not your classic spanish plume
  17. In what way is tomorrow night not a plume? I'm confused haha, since imo it's a variation of the typical Spanish Plume, typically known as a "Modified Spanish Plume"?
  18. I think you’re in for a pretty good chance Fri night into Sat morning as it stands. From experience I find UKV to be notoriously poor in plume like setups. I definitely favour AROME over all.
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