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Ben Sainsbury

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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.
  2. Must agree, a very large MCS particularly for UK standards anyway. Seems like there may be a developing squall line at the front; whilst on the back-edge it is evident the outflow of the MCS is developing new weaker storms.
  3. Cannot link as I’m on my phone apologies however ConvectiveWeather have extended the Moderate Area to cover much of the UK!
  4. Thanks for showing the snapshots of the Netwx, my apologies for not showing them earlier. Latest run shows a slightly better flow off the continent.
  5. Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.
  6. Depends, may head down to Brean/Burnham-on-sea if storms look quite potent initially. If they develop as they move northwards then Pilning will be a good shout.
  7. My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.
  8. Generally with a mass of thunderstorms/MCS the eastern edge has the most frequent lightning/highest rainfall rates. Potentially could be what the Hirlam & Arpege are showing.
  9. Wow, the Netwx model showing three 38'c icons for Thursday at 3pm over London/Thames Estuary! All time temperature record likely to be broken with this chart.
  10. Certainly feels a while since we've had any imported thunderstorms here in Bristol. Hopefully we can be the breeding ground for a huge MCS to track across all the areas further North!
  11. Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night... 1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.
  12. Oh my that is an awfully nasty looking storm on the radar, look at those rainfall rates!
  13. Yeah potentially this storm was surface based & not fully rooted to boundary layer. I expect storms to strengthen through the night as it moves into more favourable conditions.
  14. This area looks promising to me; represented well by some decent convective clouds on the Sat24 within the mass of cloud.
  15. Unfortunately the storms in the North haven't much instability available to them causing cloud tops to be quite low. Also cloud tops are relatively warm also reducing the risk of lightning.
  16. Some large convective raindrops beginning to fall here from a few developing showers. Looks like this will be the focal point for later.
  17. Right now evident that there is some mid-level instability around. Might see one or two thunderstorms form in the next couple of hours.
  18. The Netweather NMM Model seems much more in line with what I would expect in regards to surface temperatures. Take Friday for example.
  19. ECM 0z seems to be relatively consistent compared to its last run, 20’c isotherm in the South by Thursday and 24’c isotherm clipping Cornwall and looks to advect further northwards too. Low remains cut off which is good ofc!
  20. That is for SB CAPE and not ML CAPE as we're likely to see more elevated storms rather than surface based.
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