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Ben Sainsbury

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About Ben Sainsbury

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    Ben Sainsbury

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    Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Interests
    Weather and Only Weather!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.
  2. Must agree, a very large MCS particularly for UK standards anyway. Seems like there may be a developing squall line at the front; whilst on the back-edge it is evident the outflow of the MCS is developing new weaker storms.
  3. Cannot link as I’m on my phone apologies however ConvectiveWeather have extended the Moderate Area to cover much of the UK!
  4. Thanks for showing the snapshots of the Netwx, my apologies for not showing them earlier. Latest run shows a slightly better flow off the continent.
  5. Again the NetwX model hinting at 38'c along the Thames Estuary on its 06z run with 24'c uppers clipping the south coast.
  6. Depends, may head down to Brean/Burnham-on-sea if storms look quite potent initially. If they develop as they move northwards then Pilning will be a good shout.
  7. My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.
  8. Generally with a mass of thunderstorms/MCS the eastern edge has the most frequent lightning/highest rainfall rates. Potentially could be what the Hirlam & Arpege are showing.
  9. Wow, the Netwx model showing three 38'c icons for Thursday at 3pm over London/Thames Estuary! All time temperature record likely to be broken with this chart.
  10. Certainly feels a while since we've had any imported thunderstorms here in Bristol. Hopefully we can be the breeding ground for a huge MCS to track across all the areas further North!
  11. Some very tasty charts for Tuesday Night... 1000J/Kg of MLCAPE, Basic Levels of DLS, Extremely High SRH all combined provides a risk of some very quite large hail & prolific lightning as cloud tops reach -50'c. Looks like potential for some elevated supercells where we have best overlap of ingredients.
  12. Oh my that is an awfully nasty looking storm on the radar, look at those rainfall rates!
  13. Yeah potentially this storm was surface based & not fully rooted to boundary layer. I expect storms to strengthen through the night as it moves into more favourable conditions.
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