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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Ben Sainsbury last won the day on September 8 2023

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About Ben Sainsbury

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    Bristol
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    Weather and Only Weather!
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    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. AndrewHamm Hi mate! It's really anyone's best guess at this point. With an early terminating El Nino, it looks like an active season is likely which is good, however even within an active season you will inevitably have quiet periods. I have attached the latest long-range CFS forecast for April and May below: Obviously, these need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt but they currently suggest above average rainfall across our typical chase region, however there is a greater consensus for significantly above average rainfall for May. Now this would suggest that May is potentially the better month to go this year, however should April start off very dry, the CFS could be indicating a very active end of April. Personally, confidence is just a little higher for the May 6-15 period vs April 21-May 1 imo. Both periods look good at this point, but that's not to say there won't be some quieter spells within the months of April and May.
  2. Dreadful scenes across Indiana and Ohio, basically worst case scenarios. Doesn't look like changing anytime soon either... I worry it may be a bad year for fatalities, May and June in particular.
  3. WeatherArc Some of those soundings are ridiculous. As you say, if we can get discrete development that can interact with the front and become surface-based, then these storms will be supportive of producing a tornado and potentially strong.
  4. Much appreciated for all the posts @WeatherArc. Trey has an exceptional channel with all things severe weather/tornadoes, and highly recommend checking out for those that want to learn more.
  5. I remember Atlantic 252 Literally deja vu to a few weeks back. The low is almost definitely going over N France isn't it.
  6. I'm actually fed up of this system, after all this time of course it would miss us like this. Toys have been thrown out the pram.
  7. For what its worth, almost all the main runs so far this morning clip the far SW with some light snow. GFS 0z is definitely the furthest north, whilst GEM makes a further encroach across SE England. We're really talking 50-100 miles here, will have to see what UKMO and EC show later.
  8. Generally, in the world of weather 100 miles really isn't much! We've seen with Spanish Plume events for example, that despite cross model agreement things can be 50+ miles further east. Instances like Wednesday, where you've got a low sliding across N France is an incredibly delicate evolution, so I'd still expect to see some changes (good or bad). As @AWD says, it's not over until it's on radar, but that's just my hopeful weather nerd brain wanting snow
  9. Huge shift in the GEFS 00z this morning for my particular location (also representative for those south of M4). 50% of ensemble members now have snow reaching the Bristol area vs a quarter of the members at 18z. If we take London, we've also doubled the percentage chance from 28% to 56%. A big EC run coming up.
  10. ARPEGE completely avoids the south coast at all with regards to the same system. Still a mixed bag!
  11. After chasing my first time last year, I am back yet again this year for my 2nd chase. Going out for just under two weeks right at the end of May. Fingers crossed we can transition to ENSO-neutral and possibly La Nina as quickly as we can. Latest update suggests ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance) which shows a quicker transition to neutral than the previous update.
  12. GEFS 0z mean actually has the snow-producing low from the southwest further north than both the previous GEFS 18z and 12z mean. The mean center is now over the far N of France.
  13. Watching the model output today, I'm getting the impression that the low approaching from the south-west will almost definitely head across France and actually more of us may benefit from a series of shortwaves that develop NW of the UK, then moving SE across the country. I imagine these shortwaves will primarily consist of snow given they're embedded within the colder airmass. Interestingly however, for Bristol the GEFS 18z has a max snow risk of 28% vs the 12z at 25% and for London 34% rather than 31%. So there's still much to be decided with regards to that low approaching from the south-west. An exciting time for model watching regardless!
  14. Couldn't have put it any better. As far as I'm aware only intervention that can be made before the model is ran is if any of the observational data appears erroneous.
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