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Ben Sainsbury

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About Ben Sainsbury

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    Ben Sainsbury

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    Male
  • Location
    Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Interests
    Weather and Only Weather!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. Bit ridiculous honestly, you can't issue a warning for rain after the rain has started.
  2. Appears to be a delay, the 15z run hasn't even came out for me yet? You would expect the 18z run to out now/soon too.
  3. Another MCS develops tomorrow morning according to NMM 12z, you can see why judging by the Theta-E charts being further west and feeding off instability from the near continent with lightning on its eastern flank again.
  4. Very Intense echo has just developed close to my west, unfortunately it is incredibly cloudy so no visual.
  5. In theory the storm that passed the SE last night was an MCS and is a common mistake I made throughout my degree. An MCS is described as... a. A mesoscale system, b. A system that is convective. Now a number of meteorologists also like to use a couple other definitions alongside, for example: A convective system which is longer than 100km in length and two, convective activity is long-lived (4-6+ hours). So yeah it was an MCS last night, but just not one of those monster MCS that we saw over S/C France last night as you said 🙂 Last night, just shows how much we still have left to lea
  6. AROME 12z is also a good match of the radar atm and is keen on further intense developments just after midnight for CS/SE England.
  7. Once this MCS exits NE into the North Sea, hopefully we can advect in some more high theta-W air. Judging by the UKV 3-5am looks to support this.
  8. Yeah, storm wouldn't make it that far in the channel without becoming elevated. Though I'd imagine it only has a slightly elevated base hence the continual weakening.
  9. The area of rainfall W/NW of Rennes is prime for development on the Sat24 and would expect to become electrified in coming hour/s. Some elevated convection taking place north of Guernsey too.
  10. ICON 12z and especially AROME 12z look great for east of IOW (not Kent Clipper) for tonight and tomorrow morning.
  11. Looks like there were problems with the radar and now we can see the storm in full fruition on the latest frame. Don't think it looks as bad as first feared.
  12. Come on Chris, you know better than this than to call game over before the event has even started really😉
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