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Ben Sainsbury

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About Ben Sainsbury

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    Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol
  • Interests
    Weather and Only Weather!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. Oh my that is an awfully nasty looking storm on the radar, look at those rainfall rates!
  2. Yeah potentially this storm was surface based & not fully rooted to boundary layer. I expect storms to strengthen through the night as it moves into more favourable conditions.
  3. This area looks promising to me; represented well by some decent convective clouds on the Sat24 within the mass of cloud.
  4. Unfortunately the storms in the North haven't much instability available to them causing cloud tops to be quite low. Also cloud tops are relatively warm also reducing the risk of lightning.
  5. Some large convective raindrops beginning to fall here from a few developing showers. Looks like this will be the focal point for later.
  6. Right now evident that there is some mid-level instability around. Might see one or two thunderstorms form in the next couple of hours.
  7. The Netweather NMM Model seems much more in line with what I would expect in regards to surface temperatures. Take Friday for example.
  8. ECM 0z seems to be relatively consistent compared to its last run, 20’c isotherm in the South by Thursday and 24’c isotherm clipping Cornwall and looks to advect further northwards too. Low remains cut off which is good ofc!
  9. That is for SB CAPE and not ML CAPE as we're likely to see more elevated storms rather than surface based.
  10. I have no doubt that the storms next week will be worse than Thursday and a much more widespread too. The CAPE amounts are enormous and was an area in Thursday's storms which could've done with being higher. End of next week particularly looks very dangerous.
  11. Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late
  12. Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.
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