Ben Sainsbury

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About Ben Sainsbury

  • Rank
    Ben Sainsbury
  • Birthday 23/06/99

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    Keynsham, Bristol
  • Interests
    Weather and Only Weather!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and Snowstorms

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  1. Quick one off post on this thread, but going to be flying home from Palma to Bristol soon, with apparent MCS across Southern France, should be a good view!
  2. Active storms look to nail Bristol in the next few hours, enjoy it while it's there boys as not home to see it myself!
  3. From my inexperienced eye, storms forming to SE as a result of outflow from large thunderstorm system to west. Either way someone is going to get something today/tonight.
  4. Typical one of the most promising risks of storms for Bristol and I'm on holiday, would post more but not had time! Good luck to you all and hope the storms can crack open the Bristol Storm Shield
  5. Probably due to the shallow CAPE values and fairly low lapse rates.
  6. My thoughts of potential new developments atm:
  7. Right now if I were you I'd situate myself in the triangle between Northampton, Peterborough and Cambridge. There is an area of clear sky over West Midlands, north of the current line of AcCas, as this continues to move east strong dirnual heat could spark off a storm or two just north of the line of showers atm.
  8. I can just see that line of precipitation forming exploding into some huge thunderstorms as the heat builds. All from that line of Cumulus that I saw earlier. The line of precipitation is slowly increasing in intensity too.
  9. Precipitation beginning to form just south of Oxford along the line of developing cloud.
  10. Some promising areas of Cumulus to my south now, exciting ahah! Really continuing to grow to good heights now.
  11. Watch the line of cloud develop from Exeter to Cambridge on Sat24, possible convection could be started here in connection with the approaching cold front?
  12. There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.
  13. It's so funny how even at this stage the GFS brings another eastward shift. Wouldn't say I'm surprised though happens every time.
  14. Philip makes me laugh on the BBC Video forecasts mind, "a few showers moving into Southern Areas with the odd rumble of thunder". Oh I better hope it ain't just the odd rumble, ain't staying up for that rubbish!
  15. Interesting to note GFS have done well with current timing of showers over Jersey (but as always over-egg the amount of precipitation). Bear in mind the normally reliable Euro4, didn't predict any precipitation to form whatsoever till midnight. Maybe if making an educated guess this could mean that Euro4 predictions could be brought forward and brings a greater risk to some more Central Southern areas. Current ConvectiveWeather update is spot on for me!