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Bullseye

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Glasgow
  • Interests
    Snow, Wind, Thundersnow, Cold, Ice and Heavy Snow... have i mentioned snow yet ;) odd bit of sun now and then especially in winter! Football fan and enjoy rock/indie music.
  • Weather Preferences
    Beginning with S ending with W ;)

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  1. Many thanks for this @Bring Back1962-63. Would be great if this could be pinned at top of page! I also noticed @Tamara had a slight ramp if we can call it that with regard to NY pattern onwards. Model mayhem as they try to figure out what will happen after strat warming - doubt it will be what GFS 18z run shows with PV locked in over Greenland and expanding.
  2. Add to the uncertainty of Christmas week and towards new year with the continued signals for strat warming last few days of Dec. We now also have the ECM MJO forecast heading towards phase 6, this is a change to two/three days back where it was due to hover around phase 4 or into COD. Model mayhem over next few days as one would expect.
  3. Before the 12z run out soon - I have done a brief research of few points that may lead to cold around New Year and Jan. This was on the back of @Steve Murr post in another thread - November AO. Looking at this year we can see the AO for Nov has now come in at -1.116, this adds to following years of sub -1 (per @Summer Sunpost of 2018 value). When taking this we can compare years which then fall into low solar activity this provides following results - 1952, 1954, 1962, 1965, 1984, 1985, 1995. (I have added in 1984 as this year falls less than 0.5 into -1 for AO in Nov). https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles Taking these years we can determine which of these years were either decreasing or increasing at stage of low activity per data from above site. We find the following years were still dropping into state of low activity based on monthly sunspots - 1952, 1962, 1984, 1985 & 1995 especially the last 2 years. Another one I looked at was the transition of years from easterly to westerly QBO during winter. This was deciding factor as we find that the following years are the closest match - 1954 (although while yr was at low solar activity it was also starting to become more activity solar-wise) and 1984 - this was taken from the Twitter account, credit to gritear. The 3 other years where in a E-QBO phase. Both 1984 and 1954 featured warmer than average December against 1981-2010 mean. 2018 also looks to be heading towards much warmer than average month (warmest since the horror of 2015). We can also factor in state of play with ENSO region - both years differed to 2018 with both years categorised as weak nina while this year is running at weak nino. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Finally, 1984/85 winter also produced a split PV in the first week of Jan 1985 per @feb1991blizzard graph from this week. With continued signs that we may also see split PV happening with continued attacks on PV. Below from Michael. No doubt I have completely picked this up all wrong and will be corrected!
  4. I did find his analysis of current situation with regard to strat unusual, as he indicates strat to set-up in northern Europe but mentions mild few weeks and chance of cold in February. Odd as goes against majority of what others are seeing upcoming on here and other side of pond.
  5. And there is agreement with this from the guys over on 33drain, they have mentioned there quite keen on weak heights around Greenland around 10 days time and are also thinking GEFS is looking along the correct pattern. Strat warming growing more likely and heights into Greenland before main course in first week of Jan? Promising.
  6. Reliable or not I think Mike is pointing out we are no longer at 384hr - it's moved forward toward 300hr mark and has first positive temps since GFS started toying with this idea.
  7. Thanks for this Catacol. Looks like we could be looking at most interesting winter since 2009 or 2010 especially with this occurring around start and into heart of winter. In regard to the strat, are we also seeing somewhat of a Canadian warming in next week to 10 days looking at some charts?
  8. Reversal of zonal winds on the most recent 12z ECM. Was also close or just hitting reversal this morning. One to monitor over coming day or two, as a little of surprise (in good way).
  9. Not to go off topic but relates to this. I have also posted in winter thread essexweather thoughts for this month via earlier tweet.
  10. With the Scandi high now certain as can be in D5-D8 timeframe. Eyes turn to 10day and this may indicate where we go for remainder of month especially with the background signals almost all falling in our favour at the moment - GFS 18z possibly showing where we go and inline with GP thoughts. Interestingly, press release tomorrow from MO for 10 day period with further update, this could indicate what the MO/UKMO would see in this timeframe - quite unusual for press video release I am thinking or I may have picked it up wrong.
  11. Bullseye

    Winter 2018/19

    Massive ramp by government organisation over on Twitter?
  12. One trend to make note of even in the "less" exciting runs of earlier and carried on tonight is all models (that go to that range) are starting to make a move with the PV over into the Siberian side. This ties in well with upcoming attacks on PV and potential strat warming into final third of month. Should add the sun has hit big 200 of spotless days - hopefully stays this way for next month or two.
  13. Already been put in the bin by guys over in US forum along with them siding with GEFS over EPS, due to continued backtracks by EPS in past month. Initial warm up expected to last no more than one week over in states. With majority of background signals pointing towards renewed blocking around mid-month, think is more of a case of human input being more reliable in next week or so. Didn't help with MO extended changing after only 2 days - uncertainty at highest level of computer input? Should add the weeklies belong in same category as CFS.
  14. Very much in line with what @bluearmyhad mentioned on previous page, with split vortex and arctic high becoming a growing feature.
  15. Will be interesting few weeks, majority of background signals favour blocked pattern into mid December. I wonder what changed for GLOSEA to suddenly flip to blocked average 3 month winter pattern in most recent update.
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