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SandraD77

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Posts posted by SandraD77

  1. Very poor NAE for Ireland, North and South. The front doesnt appear to be pivoting as much meaning the Atlantic wins out quickly.

    Still different from the overnight ECM, UKMET and GFS which brings snow to NI at least.

    Still time for change.

    GFS is only model with any snow potential for Eire, but it's not being backed up by any other models right now! :( Oh well, I think this will very much be a Feb 2012 situ all over again with Ireland missing out on any significant cold! Met Eireann no longer even mentioning sleet in their forecast. NI may see something, but I think right now the atlantic has too much of an influence over our small island and after months of model watching with any potential always getting pushed further and further out into FI, I'm calling it a day for this winter! Mind you I'm happy for all our UK friends and the posters on here who'll hopefully finally get some proper snow this weekend! No sour grapes on my behalf!

  2. Models starting to show some relatively good agreement in terms of potential for (possible significant) snow events for parts of britian from the weekend onwards. How prolonged or significant any snowfall will be remains very uncertain, as models are still not getting a good handle on anything longer range. Unforetunetly from in a IMBY prespective it's looking unlikely that Ireland will join the party (as I stated last night) and models are verifying my worst fears again today. However should cold become entrenched over your side, then it may help pull colder air are way to so we won't be left out again (last year poor Ireland missed out altogether and we're now snow starved over here!). Still enjoy any snowfall you get and I hope for all our sakes the general pattern upgrades lead to a more sustained and (both) national(s)wide events soon!!

  3. dont worry about Ireland yet . get a pattern change like this in and im sure we will get hit .

    Agreed, equally I'm along the same thinking as Peter O'Donnell, that the real cold will be end of Jan/Feb and I think we'll be in for something "properly" wintery then! Here's hoping anyways! All in all happier with the recent model upgrades!

  4. Grrr typical lil ole Ireland not invited to the snowfest yet again :-( Models starting to show some (relatively) decent consistancy, so looking like you Brits will be in for a winner if the models verfiy and I'll be delighted for you all if it does! Us Poor Irish who missed out last Feb, may have to hope for a later shot at a deeper cold period towards the end of the month!

  5. Can't help but urge caution in terms of expectation! It seems to me that every few runs ppl are going from utter despair to unapologetic jubilance. Cold would very much need to become firmly entrenched before sustained or regular snow events could be considered. I tend to follow Simon Keeling as he seems to be fairly spot on and presents well backed up and unbiased forecasts. At present he's opting for a brief cold incursion over the weekend and then a trend to (and I stress) cooler period with interludes of cold and mild till mid Feb! Now before members jump down my throat about not being able to reliably predict past 72hrs out, I actually agree, but Mr Keeling watches trends and he's been pretty much spot on this winter (as was he last winter).

    BTW I too badly would love snow and prolonged cold but I'm a realist and rather than go into a deep depression oe becoming elated with every model run, I weigh up potential based on output and expert analysis!

  6. Simon Keeling suggesting that cooler conditions might not make an appearance until late in the month and he's not convinced they'll be widespread http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php.

    Followed him all last winter and he was pretty spot on - he neither cold nor mild ramps, just says as it is and provides good reasoning for his musings! Equally Peter O'Donnell issued his winter forecast in September and it's been pretty spot on to date (even predicting the really windy period following xmas) and he's suggesting that winter will arrive in Feb as opposed to Jan http://www.meteotimes.net/2012/09/peter-odonnells-winter-2012-13-forecast.html. His daily forecasts are still suggesting late Jan to Early Feb before we see any sustained cold! http://www.meteotimes.net/2012/08/peter-odonnells-long-range-weather.html

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