Kiwi

I don't pretend to understand all of that Glacier Point but; "average to slightly below rainfall (although a lot of uncertainty in this respect)"?????!!! Does that mean no more rain this month in soggy Hampshire?

Weather not really looking terribly helpful to the relief efforts, such as they are; WTIO21 PGTW 132030 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 96.1E TO 19.4N 92.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 95.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121210Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF CONVECTION AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER, MORE RECENTLY, CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YANGON DELTA REGION OF MYANMAR. OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGON AS OF 131300Z, SUPPORT A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1000 MB (3 MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A PARTIAL 130301Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, FURTHER PROOF OF CYCLONIC TURNING. THE CENTER CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVOR- ABLE SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, MINIMAL DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW LYING TOPOGRAPHY AND FAIRLY QUICK TRANSIT OVER THE LOW-LYING COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR. EMERGENCE INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD WITH THE ONLY LIMITATION BEING TEMPORARY LAND INTERACTION. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 142030Z.// NNNN

Great snow here today -- best we've had for years -- preceeded by an almighty thunder clap! B) Lots of fun on the sledges

How about simplifying things - given last summer and winter perhaps we should just keep to two seasons Spring and Autumn :lol:

I thought the prospect of any snow warranted a severe weather warning for the south!! Seriously though - I think the met office have been spot on so far as opposed to the GFS which seems to model along the lines of a hysterical teenager at times!! - perhaps the 18z could give us a snow hurricane for the south tonight! Shame really -- at times I'd like to live in GFS world

My Dad lives in Waipu, Northland (The bit above Auckland) and he has been moaning incessantly about the grim winter that they've had -- very wet, windy and overcast. It's been so bad that he's even threatening to move to the UK for better summer weather -- he spent summer with us last year so he has a somewhat distorted view of what a British summer is all about.

As you're in Newcastle I'd suggest popping over to Norway. Great scenery, fiords , mountains and plenty of snow. Even if you hit a mild spell of weather the more mountainous areas (eg around Voss which is easy to get to from Bergen) will ensure lots of the white stuff. Shame about the price of booze though!! :blink:

Yep first time ever that two Cat 5s have hit land in one season. Looks bad for the Miskito indians who live along this low lying coastal area.

All a bit unexpeceted this morning. Currently moderate snow falling dewpoint -1.5c temp 0.2c. :blink: I thought i'd had my lot yesterday!!

Hot, dry and sunny. 23.5 C Clear blue sky here no sign of the storms reported further west.

The impending easterly might bring a bit more than grey skies and a bit of sleet and snow!! I'd have thought it quite likely that an infected bird is likely to hitch a ride on a fresh easterly and reach the UK from Denmark or N Germany without too many snags. :unsure:

Thunderstorm here in North Hampshire. Been going for 20 mins or so but starting to brighten up now -- Yikes!!! I spoke to soon -- that lightning was too close for comfort -- time to turn off for a while!

Thunderstorm here in North Hampshire - dark, wet and noisy! :blink:

True, but haven't the last 10 or so winters had above well average temps? A return to the norm will thus be a shock to the system.

Eye seems to be tracking a bit more to the west now -- bad news especially for places like Beaumont.

Or a major shareholder in Pampers!! Is Rita beginning to veer a bit more to the west??- heading for Galveston again. :o The forecaster on KPRC (Houston) seems to think so.

mmmm it'll be a bit breezy then <_< --- especially N Scotland

I hear what you're saying smich -- You begin to wonder if they could organise a p*** up in a brewery!! - how hard can it be to have 7 lanes out and one in!!! Incidentally Frank the weather Guy on KPRC did a great synopsis on why Rita is doing what she is and where she might go - High pressure over Texas slipping east a low way up over the Great Lakes influencing the track etc etc -- talking about GFS models etc - A joy to listen to!! :o Either the great American public are a lot more clued up re meteorology than the average Brit or he was getting too technical for them. I hate to think how the new BBC weather graphics will present a major storm coming up the English channel!!!. A few blobs of blue and brown and a tiny arrow showing windspeed!!! :lol:

Really feel for all those families stressed out of their minds as they try to get out of Galveston/Houston area. It looks like a real nightmare. I've been watching footage on KPRC - horrendous traffic jams, cars running out of petrol blocking the freeway etc. Hopefully the eye will pass to the east of this densely populated area (Houston/Galveston) as I can't see everyone getting out in time. http://www.click2houston.com/video/5000985/detail.html

Rita, given her anticipated track, looks as if she might cause havoc amongst the gulf oil rigs and all the associated oil and chemical infrastructure around Houston. No doubt petrol prices will go back up to the £1 a litre mark!

I can't find many live images coming out of New Orleans -- Ok I know it is windy and pre breakfast out there But;-- Are we going to see a Sky News Man strapped to a lampost??

Snowflakes falling shimmering in the sunshine here on the hampshire/berkshire border. Very light, not settling but I'm looking forward to my easterly blast next weekend.

1.6C and grey With a steady drizzle for the last hour here in N hampshire. Does drizzle show up on the radar plots?

+1.8c and drizzle here in N Hampshire(started about 8am) overnight minimum -1.7c

Thanks Phil, Forecast to be a bit colder here tonight - and in Solihull. Perhaps we can look forward to a more widespread frost. kiwi