summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:
Not to forget 2015/16 - autumn began in mid July and never really let up until early May. Summer ended early, winter never really got going and spring took a while too. Just a constant stream of 10-16c and rain for 9 months.
I'd say 2013/14 was probably more intensely miserable but didn't last as long, basically from mid September to early March.
While December was horrific and felt genuinely warm, Jan-March was not overly bad. It was a poor Q1 but no worse than most winters and actually had brief frosts and snow here. Critically, it was still a winter.
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37 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
I’m convinced it’s based purely on the EC46 and doesn’t actually take into account any of the drivers such as MJO, GSDM etc.
This has long been my assumption, albeit the long range Euro ensemble mean is still probably more accurate than most similar length models and I don't believe it's a corporate product at that range (i.e. they can afford to get it wrong and revise so long as they get the first 1-3 weeks).
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As much as my prior thoughts pointed to the final third supporting the GFS type scenario of a build back over the pole, the tropical signal has become a little less robust in its movement (staying further west basically) which at this time of year supports a block closer to the north east of the UK rather than north west so while still strong possibilities that it could be cool given inversions, the period may look more like 2006 than 2009.
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The only endless Autumn I have been forced to endure was 2013/2014. It was offensive to the very soul.
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50% of Euro ensemble members today went for a SSW after 27th December. The mean has also dropped to +12 on Jan 11th.
So yes, it does appear that the stratosphere is forecast to experience significant distress.
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Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.77C.
I'd have said it would be difficult to match last year but actually we did get the cold start.
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29NOV2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.7
November ONI came in at +1.9.
SON ONI increased to +1.8.
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28 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:
Yeah, from recollection of when I lived near Worksop some of the best snow events came from the east or north east, though being a bit further south than here frontal events also did okay. Presume the North York moors can be a bit of a hinderence in North Easteriles for our neck of the woods?
Never found them a problem, unlike the Pennines they are not really high enough to kill convection. Our biggest issue is that the ENE flows tends to push convection south so we get scattered showers while South Yorkshire gets streamers thanks to us being directly west of the Wash.
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15 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:
Reached around 7-8cm last night as it was snowing steadily for 6h.
This is the 3rd year in a row Atlantic/western based systems provide better snowfalls in our area than the eastern/northeastern ones.
This is more of a Channel Low that's a bit too far north, similar to March.
While we do get epic events from the east or north (6th Jan 10, 2nd Dec 10), a lot of time the frontal air is too dry and you get small flakes and blowy dust snow, the great snow from the east is shower based. Sliding Atlantic fronts (low west of Ireland, SE winds ahead of the front) deliver probably the best frontal snow as per 31st December 03, multiple Jan 13 events as these are the fat flake events.
Turned to rain here at some point after 1am. It's drizzle at the moment as the front has just about cleared.
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38 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Very odd. Worked in my favour as I've had hours of snowfall at 100m. Very odd though.
33 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:Yes I just can't understand it really.
Only thing I've thought is that I'm East of Sheffield and South of Barnsley so I'm SE of most ppl posting today. It must be a finger of warmth higher up on this SE flank of the flow today
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The answer is that this is the warm front (triple point is near Bristol) so it's just a simple matter of us being further north since the front has a fair bit of eastward movement so it's not moving north fast. Since South Yorkshire is deeper in the front it's getting warmer air aloft.
Much heavier now, grit overpowered.
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I have just under an inch but mainly because it's quite wet snow. Snowed since about 4pm here.
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Snow just about going now so a few hours of snizzle before the main system.
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Front has arrived and immediately snow in BD19.
Top of the front is flat so it looks like we are near the northern edge.
15 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:As a rule of thumb for it to settle at this elevation it has to be snowing in Leeds center.
So that's a good sign.
I've never in 14 years of being on this forum seen falling and lying at 200m and rain in town. It has to be snowing in the city center, even if it's not settling and wet snow in the city.
Only time I recall was Feb 2nd 09. Sleet in Leeds City Center, snow in BD11 and Bradford City Center. About 7 inches at the airport.
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Just looking ahead to tonight.
GFS says snow from about 10pm before turning to rain after about 1am.
BBC says sleet from about 4pm through 5am before turning to rain for another 24 hours. Not sure it's lasting that long.
Met Office says snow for 2 hours between 6-8 and then a gap until rain from 1am.
Radar does suggest it's moving fairly quickly.
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Despite the CET, this Autumn has actually not been one that should be remembered for unrelenting warmth.
September and October basically saw warm opening thirds (at near record pace) followed by fair average two thirds. November actually kept the warmth for longest.
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Snow arrived, large Flakes.
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Radar looks good to me, solid nice band now.
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Stuff now approaching Hendon Bridge is much further north than previous showers. This should bring us into the game.
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19 minutes ago, terrier said:
Looking at the radar I think for us in the far west I.e Huddersfield etc is going to be a struggle to see anything meaningful this evening tonight. Sweet spot looks like South Yorkshire on latest projections.
There's a gap but the stuff leaving Wales looks further north. If it leaves Manchester north of the M62 then we should be fine.
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As stated earlier, it's basically moving ENE along the M62 but we need something that extends just north of the M62 when it leaves Manchester.
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Annoyingly the snow is literally 5 miles south east.
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The alignment is still good but too far south though convection west has exploded and so will hopefully still move east.
Annoyingly it looks like the reformation after the shadow has been gold for Doncaster.
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56 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:
What are your thoughts for Sunday night snd Mondays system
More optimistic despite the marginality.
System is more organized and it should have cold air north of the front. Snow above 100m provided it reaches here.
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Second blob tracking along the M62 and approaching Huddersfield.
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4 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:
The big question is will the band survive the pennines
Yeah, looks like the atmosphere has been moistened which is why the poster above saw light rain when it went light but it should allow further reinforcement to survive.
Next blob is inbound for Huddersfield at reasonable strength.
Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes. Always possible that we get screwed over however what makes me a little optimistic is that the 11th is not runs end which means it sees a genuine push from a cluster rather than just going through the trend motions.