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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. Others have described it well however the two simplest reasons are.. 1) High pressure in winter essentially traps cooler surface air when it builds behind a cold front, this makes it difficult for a high to sustainably produce mild weather unless it remains in place several days 2) In winter the continent is relatively cool and thus a persistant SE flow will tend to draw relatively cool air while the SW flows capable of producing warmth are by their nature less likely to persist because the westerlies will tend to try push the high east.
  2. Some people in the model thread need to breathe. December was always more likely to be somewhat hostile to prolonged cold as per my own favoured analogue set. December vs Jan for example.
  3. The question is whether the 16 day GFS operations have greater resolution in the stratosphere than the Euro 32 day forecast.
  4. Worth remembering that this is decaying WWB from November as per that chart. There was always a chance that it would wane, especially relative to the last orbit.
  5. As Nick explains, when the high builds initially it traps the cooler air that passes the UK on the 14th. Because the high is sufficiently strong, even the intrusion of warm upper air does not entirely remove this at the surface over England. By the time the incoming low is mixing out the air, the GFS has the next cold push.
  6. I'd not worry too much. We have a reasonal amplitude tropical cycle forecast between phases 4-7 (GFS keeps going back and forth on phase (8)) and phases 4-6 in December are pretty zonal (we actually do well to keep higher than average pressure in the current output). The blocking around the UK/North East of the UK is mainly a phase 7-8 thing and current output allowing for a week or so's lag puts that near xmas. Basically when the weather is doing what the tropical cycle says it should, that's not a bad thing because the pattern will probably shift. It's when it does its own thing that we need to headscratch.
  7. Yes. Always possible that we get screwed over however what makes me a little optimistic is that the 11th is not runs end which means it sees a genuine push from a cluster rather than just going through the trend motions.
  8. While December was horrific and felt genuinely warm, Jan-March was not overly bad. It was a poor Q1 but no worse than most winters and actually had brief frosts and snow here. Critically, it was still a winter.
  9. This has long been my assumption, albeit the long range Euro ensemble mean is still probably more accurate than most similar length models and I don't believe it's a corporate product at that range (i.e. they can afford to get it wrong and revise so long as they get the first 1-3 weeks).
  10. As much as my prior thoughts pointed to the final third supporting the GFS type scenario of a build back over the pole, the tropical signal has become a little less robust in its movement (staying further west basically) which at this time of year supports a block closer to the north east of the UK rather than north west so while still strong possibilities that it could be cool given inversions, the period may look more like 2006 than 2009.
  11. The only endless Autumn I have been forced to endure was 2013/2014. It was offensive to the very soul.
  12. 50% of Euro ensemble members today went for a SSW after 27th December. The mean has also dropped to +12 on Jan 11th. So yes, it does appear that the stratosphere is forecast to experience significant distress.
  13. Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.77C. I'd have said it would be difficult to match last year but actually we did get the cold start.
  14. 29NOV2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.7 November ONI came in at +1.9. SON ONI increased to +1.8.
  15. Never found them a problem, unlike the Pennines they are not really high enough to kill convection. Our biggest issue is that the ENE flows tends to push convection south so we get scattered showers while South Yorkshire gets streamers thanks to us being directly west of the Wash.
  16. This is more of a Channel Low that's a bit too far north, similar to March. While we do get epic events from the east or north (6th Jan 10, 2nd Dec 10), a lot of time the frontal air is too dry and you get small flakes and blowy dust snow, the great snow from the east is shower based. Sliding Atlantic fronts (low west of Ireland, SE winds ahead of the front) deliver probably the best frontal snow as per 31st December 03, multiple Jan 13 events as these are the fat flake events. Turned to rain here at some point after 1am. It's drizzle at the moment as the front has just about cleared.
  17. .. The answer is that this is the warm front (triple point is near Bristol) so it's just a simple matter of us being further north since the front has a fair bit of eastward movement so it's not moving north fast. Since South Yorkshire is deeper in the front it's getting warmer air aloft. Much heavier now, grit overpowered.
  18. Front has arrived and immediately snow in BD19. Top of the front is flat so it looks like we are near the northern edge. Only time I recall was Feb 2nd 09. Sleet in Leeds City Center, snow in BD11 and Bradford City Center. About 7 inches at the airport.
  19. Just looking ahead to tonight. GFS says snow from about 10pm before turning to rain after about 1am. BBC says sleet from about 4pm through 5am before turning to rain for another 24 hours. Not sure it's lasting that long. Met Office says snow for 2 hours between 6-8 and then a gap until rain from 1am. Radar does suggest it's moving fairly quickly.
  20. Despite the CET, this Autumn has actually not been one that should be remembered for unrelenting warmth. September and October basically saw warm opening thirds (at near record pace) followed by fair average two thirds. November actually kept the warmth for longest.
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