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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
  2. summer blizzard
    While your correct to be skeptical and most people on this forum do get far too giddy about the next Feb 47/March 13 oncoming, in this instance I would suggest that there is a very good chance of the second half of January being the coldest since at least Jan 21. Even if a SSW does not occur, we still have a 30ms+ reduction in zonal winds that will push down the atmosphere from early Jan and we should see convection leave the Indian Ocean around the same time to move into a more favourable tropospheric window even without stratospheric assistance. So i would not get too excited about February onwards as things stand and it's possible that the pattern change is simply to a cool mid-lattitude high near the UK but at the very least the background drivers don't really support sustaining zonality past the first third of January.
  3. summer blizzard
    Most of the time but not always. It’s simply the vortex being pushed around on this occasion.
  4. summer blizzard
    Three SSW clusters in that first third, the mean avoids it but largely due to spread and the strongest SSW is probably the highest plurality.
  5. summer blizzard
    Just curious where the second U Wind anomoly chart can be sourced.
  6. summer blizzard
    13DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4
  7. summer blizzard
    They were very different years even allowing for warming so I don't think we have to allow a substantial discount to 2022.
  8. summer blizzard
    It's at ~17 Degrees south so very tropical. Basically in Venezuela.
  9. summer blizzard
    Modelling currently suggests that we flip from Nino back to Nina. -QBO is likely to flip towards +QBO by end of year. -PDO is likely to persist IMO. 2010 and 2022 seem to be the best analogue matches of recent times.
  10. summer blizzard
    As the second chart shows even if we end up with a SSW (we don't on this but it would just be a darker blue), it will still be January when it's reached the troposphere. Thus we are as you say dependent on tropical convection but since it looks like we will miss the boat on on the late phases. Current convection suggests we might persist somewhat into 2-3 but the Indian Ocean is normally not our friend.
  11. summer blizzard
    Still here. Tamara knows more than I and summed up the pattern earlier but essentially my take is that tropical convection is in/moving into a position conducive to blocking to our north east and then north west but bar a poor looking northerly attempt it looks like the tropospheric zonal flow is too strong. We've missed the boat on this tropical cycle I think however it does look like there might be less tropospheric zonal flow and a conducive tropical pattern towards mid January.
  12. summer blizzard
    SSW or not (not in this case), it's interesting to see that the weakness does actually propagate down. Remember that Jan 12 failed to achieve an actual SSW but the hit was enough to give us the first half of Feb 12.
  13. summer blizzard
    Interestingly it turns out that the two most likely periods to produce a SSW are 1st-10th January and 20th-28th February. GFS0z operational got as low as 8ms today but the GFS ensemble mean to 1st Jan was still 20ms. 37% of Euro ensembles do get a SSW between the 7th-29th January (only 17% during week 1 of Jan now) but as the mean is actually rising, I think that's noise. So my message is essentially that it looks like we don't get a SSW during early January.
  14. summer blizzard
    Low is still weak so while it may rain for a long time due to track, it probably won't be that heavy.
  15. summer blizzard
    Anything last March. We got 15cm.
  16. summer blizzard
    Assume your referring to 14 years rather than a decade, Jan 21 was colder than Jan 13 (though the later did have the coldest spell). I'm maybe 40% supportive.
  17. summer blizzard
    There's normally a lag so globally it's impact would be 2025 however for the UK there's no strong annual link. 2011 and 2014 were very mild and during/after La Nina.
  18. summer blizzard
    06DEC2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.4 MEI also increased to +0.6.
  19. summer blizzard
    About 50% of members go for an SSW with the highest concentration between 1st-12th January.
  20. summer blizzard
    Aug-Nov 2019 was very wet, it just dried up a little by December while this year waited until mid October.
  21. summer blizzard
    Others have described it well however the two simplest reasons are.. 1) High pressure in winter essentially traps cooler surface air when it builds behind a cold front, this makes it difficult for a high to sustainably produce mild weather unless it remains in place several days 2) In winter the continent is relatively cool and thus a persistant SE flow will tend to draw relatively cool air while the SW flows capable of producing warmth are by their nature less likely to persist because the westerlies will tend to try push the high east.
  22. summer blizzard
    Some people in the model thread need to breathe. December was always more likely to be somewhat hostile to prolonged cold as per my own favoured analogue set. December vs Jan for example.
  23. summer blizzard
    Perb 3 was best, placement > strength.
  24. summer blizzard
    The question is whether the 16 day GFS operations have greater resolution in the stratosphere than the Euro 32 day forecast.
  25. summer blizzard
    Worth remembering that this is decaying WWB from November as per that chart. There was always a chance that it would wane, especially relative to the last orbit.
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