summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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5 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
2022 was quite location dependent, as our summer seasons often tend to be.
I have a friend who lives in Sheffield and he regularly voiced his frustrations that it was cool and cloudy in his ends, whilst us in London / SE had warma and sunny conditions.
Undoubtedly the best summer of the past 10 years for me, with 2018 closely following
It was very much a southern thing was 2022 before August.
Somebody who lives in Manchester and London on here was illustrating earlier last year how the maxima in London were indicative of a proper 2 week 25+ hotspell basically making it a summer of two halves however in Manchester (and it fits with my own memory here), we basically had 2 hot days and 3 or 4 warm days scattered in tht two weeks.
August 2022 was more national, probably because it was UK/Scandi High based.
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Small changes from the Euro that May have been missed.
So firstly the low on the 19th has a bit more negative tilt delaying the breakdown an extra day to the 21st. The low is also weaker.
Then the second low instead of zipping north east, moves south east.
The crux is that while we end up with a +AO, there’s enough amplification that high pressure keeps everything north of most of England/Wales.
So as I said yesterday, don’t be shocked if the outcome is much more high pressure influenced than zonal.
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1 hour ago, kold weather said:
Locally I'd say 2022 went even beyond 2018 in terms of just how parched everything became, and locally we had a few more days of nil rainfall than in 2018. Of course 2018 was more front loaded and probably longer, whilst 2022 extreme period was held within a 40-45 day period from early July through to mid August but was more intense at its peak, obviously!
Speaking for here they were not comparable.
2018 was spectacular from May through mid-August. It was dry, it was hot, it was sunny and only in mid-July to mid-August did we see humidity become an issue. It even had spectacular storms here in late May and July.
2022 here was meh until 2 hot days in July. We then finally got a hot first half to August and warm afterwards until about mid-September.
In terms of duration we probably only have 2003 that compares to 2018 albeit 06 and 95 had stonking 60 day or so periods that were perhaps better.
Would probably put May-June 18 just behind June-July 06 myself but I was too young to remember much from 95 and 97 (don't think 03 was comparable).
For me I'd actually say that July-August 22 ranks behind July-August 13.
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While not good it’s worth saying that the GEM and GFS keep some vortex separation which may suggest a better chance of a pressure build outcome even if a Euro/Sceuro High.
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21 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
I imagine most warmies would've preferred the May in June, the June spell in July, the September heatwave in August and the October spell in September. And then the July and August in Oct/Nov when it didn't matter anymore. Bear in mind you can add 2-6°C for each heatwave in that list for the adjusted position.
I prefer my summer to be May-July as per 2018 or 2006 so last year was quite good on the heat front albeit the low pressure spell afterwards was much too humid unlike recent summers with a poor back end.
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27DEC2023: Nino3: 2.1 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.4
03JAN2024: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.4
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GFS and GEM basically have two much interaction with the tropospheric lobes near Greenland.
Euro keeps these seperate throughout.
In theory, modelling tends to weaken lows closer to the time which suggests less interaction but that is not guaranteed.
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26 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Locally managed a small dusting from that, which combined with the thick ice that formed managed to make things look very pretty. I'd imagine for some areas that snow really did hang around a while.
Its sadly going to be a spell though that will be long forgotten probably within the next 10 years, despite it being legitimately one of the coldest spells of the 21st century behind obviously Dec 10 and maybe parts of the 09-10 winter?
Yeah, coldest two week period since Dec 10 i think.
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Coolest first half since 2018 appears likely. More difficult to say what the end total will be but we have two large landing zones.
3.3-4.6C is the coldest Jan since 2021.
1.6-3.2C is the coldest Jan since 2010.
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On 09/01/2024 at 14:28, jonboy said:
Given the depth of cold modelled in the area for the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how much sea ice we get in that area and the baltic sea. Given that we have talk of the hottest year on record due to man induced climate change (personally I think the effect of hunga tonga is ignored for political reasons) then the amount of sea ice is extraordinary.
Keep up the great work MIA this is such a thought provoking thread.
The eruption theoretically produced more water vapour which can fall as snow in winter. One of the ice age cycles is basically the northern hemisphere getting more solar radiation, becoming warmer and generated more snow.
On 09/01/2024 at 23:50, ScottSnow said:Certainly fascinating changes going on.
Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?
Theoretically the impacts can last a few years but it's one of those things you need to measure each to establish the decay rate.
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10 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:
I don’t think Summer 2011 was too bad here. I remember July 2011 seemed to be quite cool but fairly dry and sunny. Remember I went to an outdoor wedding that month and there was a heavy shower during the reception. I remember August 2011 was very cloudy though, not a great month, although I went on holiday to East Anglia for a week during that month and remember lots of dry, sunny weather, but back at home it was very dull and grey. I don’t like humidity either, June 2018, July 2013 and August 2022 would be an awesome summer combo.
For a gentler (but still fairly dry and sunny) summer, June 2015, July 2014 and August 2021 would be nice.What I would really like to see from next summer though is much more thunderstorms. They seem to have almost disappeared here. I can’t remember even hearing a single rumble last summer. I used to get at least 1 or 2 thunderstorms every summer, usually after a warm/hot spell, but these days hot spells go out with a whimper instead of a bang here.
Yes I remember quite a lot of cloudy days in that month. Had a nice few days holiday in Skegness for a few days during that month and the weather was warm and very sunny, then had a few days up in the North East of England on the coast and I remember it was very cool and cloudy. The weather is almost always better when I go down south upon summer, oooooop north it’s just too cool and cloudy! A good example of that was coming home from Paignton in August 2017. It was very warm and very sunny over the bank holiday weekend with highs of around 23/24°C in the English riveria (and of anything felt warmer than that) but the next day came home to about 14°C and cloud. Felt like coming home after being abroad.
But August often is a cloudy month, at least in this part of the world and is often quite poor, often the poorest month of the summer, at least sunshine and rainfall wise. It isn’t usually a terrible washout month but it isn’t often very good either.
There have been very few good Augusts in recent years, at least here anyway. Here's how I’d rate recent Augusts.
2008 - Poor, Very cloudy
2009 - Ok
2010 - Poor, cloudy
2011 - Poor, very cloudy
2012 - Poor
2013 - Ok, cloudy at times
2014 - Poor
2015 - Mediocre
2016 - Very up and down, remember some very cool and wet days and some very warm and sunny days
2017 - Poor, very cool and wet
2018 - Poor, felt very cool after the hot July and was also very cloudy
2019 - Poor, first week was warm, cloudy, unsettled and thundery then cool and unsettled for the middle of the month before turning very hot and very sunny during the last week
2020 - Rather poor outside of the heatwave, very cool at the end
2021 - Mediocre, very cloudy at times
2022 - Good
2023 - Mediocre
So only one August I’d actually class as good out of the last 16 Augusts. The have either been OK, mediocre or poor. The thing that tends to let August down the most is the dullness. I think this is because August tends to have a lot of SW’s which usually bring very dull, gloomy, overcast, sometimes drizzly conditions, with cool days around 17-19°C, but very mild nights around 13-16°C, and often quite high humidity. Not great summer conditions. Would much prefer a sunny high pressure with average or slightly above average days and cool nights. That tends to happen more in early summer though. Early summer and late spring is usually the sunniest time of the year here, due to the Atlantic being quieter and when the wind is usually much more easterly. July and August are much more westerly and are warmer but also duller and wetter here.
Recent averages have skewed the expectation of August. Historically what we have seen is a bit wetter than expected but closer to the historic norm for August. We also had a string of warm August's between 90 and 04.
Last summer was actually quite thundery hear. Indeed, we've had a good run of thunder since 2017 here. Not sure if we had a notable event in 2022 but can recall every year aside from that. It may just be that this.
I'm suprised you got nothing notable in 20/21 as i remember a string of storms from the SE to the NW.
9 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:My ideal summer would be something like June 2023, July 2018 and August 2016, but with some thunderstorms thrown in.
All were pleasant summer months with many warm or hot sunny days without feeling overly humid.
August 2016 was a pet hate month here. It was humid and dull much like July 10. Presumably, we were around the mean frontal boundary.
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I'd basically prefer summer 11 to repeat. That was wonderful for the lack of heat and humidity.
But If we must have a hot summer then it needs to avoid humidity. June 18, July 13 and I suppose August 22 would be acceptable.
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Starting to get very excited for around the end of the month.
The second SSW attempt whether it fails or not will have its peak impact in the final third of the month as weak zonal winds downwell into an already weak environment. Meanwhile, we have kept a much more robust tropical cycle and around the 25th will enter the traditionally better locations.
The combination is such that as we end the month then both of these factors may well provide an exceptionally strong basis for a significant -AO period and subsequently, our best chance at a stonking cold spell atop an already likely cool January.
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7 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
Nino to Nina would do me well.
As with every year, I hope to see a cool wet summer with plenty of convective diurnally driven downpours.
A few warmer days would be nice too but nothing excessively hot.
Yes, I was speaking from a heat point of view.
I personally would love a 07/11/12 repeat.
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On 05/01/2024 at 23:13, raz.org.rain said:
El Niño winters have a habit of leading onto great summers too for the most part
Good to see the thread up.
Just on this point though, it's important to note the difference between flip years and stable years.
Years with La Nina to El Nino flips appear to produce good summers disproportionately, stable years do not.
Years which start and end with positive ONI are..
1953
1958
1969
1977
1987
1991
1994
2003
2004
2015
2019
Compare this to years which start negative and end positive with ONI.
1951
1957
1963
1965
1968
1972
1976
1986
2002
2006
2009
2014
2018
2023
You can see here that the rate of 17C+ months is about the same at ~40% of each summers producing at least one 'hot' month however you can also see that the infamous summers of legend are very much in the flip set (76, 06, 18).
2024 is either in the stable set or the Nino to Nina set and i don't think you need reminding that the later is not often good.
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I'll admit that my hopes were raised last night by the Euro but I'll remind you all of two days ago when I said that arguably the biggest combined impact on any downwelling zonal wind weakness and progression of the tropical convection is likely to be around the 20th. What we are seeing now is more the lagged impact of MJO movement during December.
Moral of the story, we may need two or three bites from a UK high cherry but the medium term signal is likely to get better rather than worse as the month progresses.
To keep a bit more on topic, I think the Euro is a good shout.
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55 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
nice... I wonder what is causing this split as progged currently? over christmas the model were forecasting a SSWS that would have spilt the vortex, however the SSW was removed from forecasting and we went through some relatively poor modelling - seems to picked up again and I guess thanks in no small part to the split vortex forecast.. can we trust the split this time in essence...
An official SSW just means that the vortex is sufficiently displaced or split to generate mean easterlies.
Essentially we are still getting the thump and enough of one to split the vortex, just not one that will knock the main vortex chunk away enough to count as an official SSW.
So same thing, just technicalities.
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4 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:
I've seen a few confident tweets mentioned in Amy Butler's feed about colder weather in Northern Hemisphere not requiring a SSW.
I think 2006 was the last time , cold dry Jan and Feb, after a really wet and stormy first half, March and April then was really snowy. It can and does happen.
Winter 2006 was cool and dry throughout after mid-November. Not sure April was snowy either.
You may be thinking more of Winter 2008 which was zonal and then had a cool spring until May.
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2015 and 2012 were the other cool ones (6.2).
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7.4
5.5
2.4 - 2021
7.5
5.7
4.8 - 2018
5.2
5.1
6.2
6.2
4.7 - 2013
6.2
5.2
-0.2 - 2010
Took a look at the first halves to Jan given the cool outlook be that UK High or Scandi High.
Not many cool first halves means it's not difficult to rank well although we are unlikely to surpass 2021.
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Euro tonight has moved to mid-latitude ridging from day 6 onwards. Not entirely surprised and the vortex while weak, will take a while to push down the main thump from the attempted SSW even if it’s failed (tropospheric vortex is much less hostile to weakening than last year so I don’t think it matters that it’s failed - Euro indeed does split to 50hpa).
The combination of downwelling weaker zonal winds and the location of tropical convection could produce an exciting second half.
Moral of the story, we may need more than one bite of the cherry but I think we go from a U.K. high to something better rather than worse.
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1 hour ago, snowray said:
Looking at your list there, can I ask, has there ever been a 7c December?
See the post just above yours, yes.
With 14 out of ~300 years of records it's about once every 25 years.
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32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Someone mentioned comparisons with winter 12-13. There was a SSW I think 3 Jan.. a cold spell developed about 13 Jan until 26 Jan , but I don't believe this was attributed to the SSW, but the March cold was?
Just interesting to see thoughts about how the affects of any SSW this time round may impact the UK, given the same timescales.
The Jan spell was almost definitely the SSW response. The timing is about right and you can see even on the European archive that there's a -AO which develops, just not near Greenland as much. We also saw a very blocked February around the UK which is again very common in weeks 3-7 for the UK after a SSW.
The stratosphere was not especially weak during Feb/March which suggests it wasn't directly responsible albeit the tropospheric vortex may well have still been shredded from it.
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:Can anyone see what may have changed over past 36 hours ? The 00z 26th data led to mean reversal. The data beyond that hasn’t. Given that modelling in the strat is supposed to be more reliable, surely something must have changed in the trop around the 31st ??.
It's not a radical change in the overall forecast, comparing the charts it looks like we've simply lost the very deep SSW forecasts and so the mean has risen a little higher.
We are also seeing the warming right now so it's perhaps a little weaker than expected.
General summer chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It's always interesting to think there are now people here who don't remember 07-12 and can only reference statistics (for those of us here back then, it sticks in the memory like 09-10-13 does for summer.
But yeah, 07 and 12 were basically a dream for those of us who dislike summer and we're truly horrific for the majority on here. Akin to winter 2014.
Summer 2008 was horrifically dull and generally wet and cool. Summer 2011 while dry ish was the coolest in about 25 years and basically devoid of heat after the opening days of June.
Summer 2009 is remembered by those who only look at statistics as being okay but in actuality it was what we can call a plume fail summer. Basically in June and August it tended to be humid but outside the south east it was barely memorable as the heat would always plume to our east.
Summer 2010 is the one people forget most and glorify but in reality June was about as average nationally as you can get and from about the 10th July, summer was basically done north of Yorkshire, August was pretty cool and wet and I recall Scotland recording some abnormally cool temperatures. It gets glorified a little because from mid June to mid July the south east did get a great 25C period but here In Yorkshire the frontal boundary basically just sat north of us so it was a cloudy, humid month and north of us completely forgettable. Essentially a summer of 2 halves but with the first half at maybe 6/10 only nationally.
So basically very poor summers generally with perhaps only summer 2009 trying (and failing) to produce something consistently warm.