summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Proof then that the Beeb are notorious for "dumbing down" facts, and at times, getting them just wrong. Slightly off topic, but I'm quite fed up with BBC news atm.
I've been watching it all on Bloomberg myself.
Indeed, there not bad compared to the American media (Fox news for the presidential race) but they do have a left dumb down streak.
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This is Sandy upon NJ landfall, to the left of the circulation (Maryland) is the warm-core of Sandy soon to be extinguished by the cut-off from the ocean. And to the right (New Jersey) is the cold-core, the developing 'Nor-Easter which took advantage of the 'cane.
Thats not how it works, especially since the storm was travelling NW and NE at this point.
That was simply what remained of the eye undergoing extra-tropical transition, in my opinion there is a case for it to have been declared sub-tropical about 36 hours ago given the storms structure.
Well, I believe it was one of their weather reporters/forecasters that was on the news 24 channel spouting forth this info.
I suspect that like their reviews of 1987 they simply don't want to confuse the viewer by explaining the various requirements.
Apparently they are 'discouraged' to mention anything like the Jet Stream as it would turn off the average viewer.
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BBC reporting the Eye of the storm reached 940mB. And that anywhere else, it would have registered as a Cat 3 Hurricane.
BBC is wrong, whilst gusts were in excess of 100mph, at no point did sustained winds approach that.
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Snow has definitely set in at Charleston.
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Snow now as far north as the area west of Johnstown.
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THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
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I really hope Sandy, as an extra-tropical storm will go across the atlantic and slam britain with winds upto 80-90mph and 100mph over high ground. It also may bring much colder weather behind it. It may happen next week. I maybe wrong though.
It prob arrive over here around next tuesday or wednesday. not this week, next week. It is a one to watch and it is quite a threat to us too. behind it will be north to northwesterly winds and it may bring snow to north-west england.
It's not coming here at all.
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Snow potential on Sunday and Monday?
GFS suggesting air temperatures around 2C.
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Exactly the same experience I have even dating back to the old BBC Snow-watch days
I can only assume it was simply the greater range of data available that produced this belief (a belief that I too held during the years you mention)
SK
I started on there.
I suspect it may have verified better in winter when those winters were full of shortwaves which the GFS does best on, it may be that simply ignored what went on outside winter for the most part.
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That -80 doesn't look too promising!
The net effect on the stratosphere would be +4 from the day 10 chart (-4+
) so a small warming but nothing big.. -
http://google.org/crisismap/sandy-2012
Snowbelt is definitely spreading, i do wonder if Pitsburgh could be one to look out for later.
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While we're talking which model is better than the other:
0z's @ Day 6:
http://www.emc.ncep....0_G2NHX_00Z.png
1. ECMWF
2. GFS
3. UKMO
4. GEM
5. NOGAPS
12z's @ Day 6:
http://www.emc.ncep....0_G2NHX_12Z.png
1. ECMWF
2. GFS
3. UKMO
4. GEM
5. JMA
6. NOGAPS
The ECMWF remains supreme at this range.
In terms of 0z vs 12z, the 0z's are correlating far better than the 12z's, perhaps suggesting that we should be paying more attention to the overnight runs. For example, both the GFS and UKMO are proving 5% more accurate in their 0z runs, and even ECMWF is at 2%.
Over a longer period of time:
http://www.emc.ncep....H500mb_day6.png
You can see that even as far back as 2000, the ECMWF has consistently remained the most accurate performer at day 6. The Ranking over the last year is as follows:
1. ECMWF
2. UKMO
3. GFS
4. GEM
5. NOGAPS
(note as this data is only available from the 0z runs, the JMA cannot be compared)
So two conclusions I personally draw from a data perspective:
1. ECMWF remains king, and has done for some time.
2. 0z runs should be taken more seriously perhaps than 12z runs for day 6 projections
3. GFS/UKMO seem fairly interchangeable for the position of runner up, and, to my mind, should perhaps be considered =2nd
SK
Very surprising, i joined in 04 and right upto 07 the consensus was that GFS was superior.
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Although Explorer of the Seas is still chugging out there..just north of Ocean City
ATM http://www.marinetra...ddate=lastknownAdmittedly she is supposed to be going towards bermuda and I wonder if she heads to port for a little bit?.....
It will be rough but the wind should be behind her.
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Large area of snow just south of Charleston.
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Cincinnati now reporting heavy snow!
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6.2C for me, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.
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Here is today's map - not much change in the ice but snowfall across parts of Europe and Western Russia has exploded! I've also posted yesterday's map underneath for comparison.
Christ, we've got the largest October snow extent on record!
This is great for winter.
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Anyone remember a heavy October fall in recent years?
Anyone remember a heavy October fall in recent years?
2000.
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Snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I'm probably alone in not envying you one bit, it must be such a long winter up there.
I imagine there is constant fall then melt scenarios.
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Great agreement on a cool and unsettled pattern..
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Just comparing 2010 to 2012
In 2010 there seemed to be the perfect set up now leading into winter for the UK getting early snow with incoming snow taking a high and focused move from Siberia then Russia and into Scandinavia etc
It looks that already 2012 is a little behind that and the shape is looking like its more flatter rather than pointing at Finland, so will be interesting how that is shaping up over the next week.
Iceland has got a good covering of snow compared to yesterday and more due over the next 7 days, http://www.yr.no/pla...eyri/long.html
so its looking more 2010 again some very cold temps tonight inc http://weather.glads...y.net/site/BIAR
If the snow heads early for New York,Oslo and Reykjavik I'm thinking we would be unlucky to have to wait till after Xmas for a decent UK covering.
The US and Canada had a very poor winter for snow last year, well it looks like it has a chance this one!
There are lots of ways to have a winter but a weather child of winter 2010 would please a few people i think.
2012 is much better, a much more solid snowpack and more in Canada.
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Anybody got todays chart?
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Small improvements with the stagnant low being a little weaker today, this has the effect of keeping cooler air and increasing the chances of a sunshine and showers setup.
) so a small warming but nothing big..
ATM 
October CET Value
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Looks like we shall be over 3C below last October and even below last November's value.