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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    That's a pretty poor example though. When it comes to the actual timing or location of a front there's a good margin of error and i pretty much ignore most non-met stuff. This is a much more simple "where will the high end up" and whilst complicated to a degree it is'nt nearly as complex as that setup.
  2. summer blizzard
    Indeed. Do you have the ECWMF ensemble spread? The mean may be in agreement with the operational but there could well be a bigger spread on the up and downside?
  3. summer blizzard
    There will no doubt be some GFS runs with a higher ensemble spread but in 6-8 days (19th-21st) i will put a virtual pound on the isotherm being above 0C.
  4. summer blizzard
    I'm really not sure how the cold front tonight is supposed to hang around, it looks pretty thin.
  5. summer blizzard
    It's possible but with not a single stray run it is in my opinion unlikely, i disagree on the whole they are often great indicators. Meant 'now', have edited.
  6. summer blizzard
    Having observed the models over several days i'm now ready to state that i am backing the GFS. Ensembles have moved into excellent agreement is my primary reason.
  7. summer blizzard
    There's nowhere near enough wind and its nowhere near heavy enough. .............. Small flakes but heavy.
  8. summer blizzard
    Personally i think the GFS12z is a pretty good run. Rather than being a trend towards a cold outbreak the clear trend in recent days has been for higher than average pressure over the UK with any real cold being well out. I suspect many people are looking with rose tinted glasses and whilst it may well evolve into a cold spell i for one am looking forward towards sunshine and dryness.
  9. summer blizzard
    They were both dry though Autumn 2011 and Spring 2010 weren't massively similar in temperature. If you know the link to that site where you put the years in and produce monthly maps (GP and the like use it all the time, noaa or cpc or something) then i can plot it.
  10. summer blizzard
    Warmest PDO value since May 2010. Weakest -QBO value since November 2011.
  11. summer blizzard
    A lovely spell of weather forecast by the GFS18z once Wednesday is done with, sunny and dry with temperatures in Leeds City Center pushing 10C (urban heat effect).
  12. summer blizzard
    I'd still expect freezing rain were that the case. The only potential analogue i can think of would be 27th December 2010 which saw temperatures below freezing and heavy rain but that was an all rain event, not a snow to rain.
  13. summer blizzard
    Strange one on Wednesday, temperature forecast to remain below 0C throughout but forecast to be snow to rain.
  14. summer blizzard
    The bit we have now is making terribly slow progress and so won't be here for hours and won't produce much anyway. The band we want is over Wales.
  15. summer blizzard
    The monster storm was late October 2000.
  16. summer blizzard
    Worcester just about to see the sun, for the higher ground with the massive totals it's pretty much over now. Northbourugh and Worcester at 28 inches, pretty much final totals. Boston still snowing at 21 inches, will probably break the 2 foot mark.
  17. summer blizzard
    Coming close to the back end of the front now.
  18. summer blizzard
    Just under 500,000 without power.
  19. summer blizzard
    Ah, i was watching a different feed. Looks then as though upstate New York is the big winner again.
  20. summer blizzard
    17 inches in Easford, Connecticut.
  21. summer blizzard
    5 inches per hour in the heaviest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  22. summer blizzard
    South Natick leading at 13 inches at the moment, heaviest snow seems to be west of Boston inland near Worcester, Springfield and Connecticut (possibly high ground at the Appalachians or whatever there called). Boston at 6-8 inches at the moment and predicted to get 18-24 inches at the moment with over 12 hours to come. Low center is coming close to being east of NYC Norwood looks like a proper white out. Got to say that response is great, plenty of ploughs going past. Over 190,000 out of power.
  23. summer blizzard
  24. summer blizzard
    Yes, 2011 was a result of a +AO but zonal winds remaining weak like March 2012. This is essentially what i foresee repeating (not solely based on the stratosphere, this just confirms my initial thoughts in the past few months). Essentially i expect a dominant high pressure south and west of the UK (probably very close) from late Feb, being pushed further east through March (the result either being much warmer and drier than average or a more typical westerly N/S split).
  25. summer blizzard
    Not from the top to my knowledge. I don't expect the effect to feed through until late Feb anyway.
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