summer blizzard

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_10_2012_merra.pdf Can anybody explain whether we should expect the stratosphere to fall into line given that we are close to record lows at 10hpa or whether the troposphere will continue to override this signal.

I'm a little surprised how little mention of the lack of precipitation there has been on this thread, both models indicate at least here that we will be odds on for 3 weeks with less than 10mm of precipitation (only one front from the north to come in about a week before pressure builds again), that's pretty exceptional. At a guess we probably have to go back to Feb 06 for such a dry spell.

Anybody have an update as to the ground water levels and reservoirs as we go into the 'dry' season?

Also, no month has been more than 0.2C above the 1981-2010 average since last March.

Interesting month it was.. Around the 3rd (going by TWS dates) there was a surprise occlusion because two troughs and formed in the Irish and North seas and the precipitation had joined into a small but intense band which moved south over most of the country. We then had 6cm on the 12th (Glasgow got upwards of 9 inches) and then freezing rain and snow on the 14th. The last week was one of the wettest i can remember, low to the south west with multiple shortwaves.

Forgot about this thread.. http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/billions-of-earthlike-planets-found-in-milky-way/ Essentially it is now believed that ther are 17 billion rocky planets similar to Earth with 20% in the habitable zone (3.4 billion) and that red dwarfs also have planets. Based on the size of our galaxy this suggest a habitable planet may be every 10 light years roughly however when we take into account that we are in a denser stellar neigbourhood we have a red dwarf 5 lights years away and another G type star with confirmed planets 10 light years away. We are almost certainly not alone.

Neutral. I'd lean on the positive side personally.

Agreed, i'm in spring mode now.

GFS suggests its sunny until Saturday pretty much (bar tommorow morning) and its being pretty good so far.

I doubt the sun was still producing daylight at 6pm last night, it was probably just the extremely clear sky. Yes, i woke up at 6.45 i think and the sun had risen and was level with my window, beautiful. .. Looks very likely we will have gone 2 weeks with no precipitation now. Hosepipe bans for the summer anyone?

The recent summers have been caused by very low GLAMM, if we can get close to an El Nino with our +QBO then we are good to go. With the milder uppers i suspect fog would be a bigger issue than very low minima but i'd expect say -5C in a Scottish valley, perhaps a few degrees below in the Vale of York. That's true but at this range the resolution isn't nearly good enough to take the models at the word for cloud amounts. I'd expect there to be more cloud along the east and south of the Midlands but i'd expect inland a lot of places to see the cloud burn back.

Lovely and sunny.

A beauty. I'd expect with such pressure and a strengthening sun inland you'd probably see the cloud burn back.

Having not got up until 1 i just assumed it had been sunny all day.

My memory of March must have overwhelmed any memories of sunshine last February.

Another lovely day here. GFS high resolution takes us to day 13 with no precipitation.

A dry and blocked month on the whole but the high may be west enough to produce inversions in the first half before it drifts south east in the second. 7.1C for me at this point, 0.5C above the 1981-2010 average.

I guess that's our target then.

When was the last February to breach the 100 mark?

I'd hate that minima but i'd be happy with that maxima if i could just lounge about. I have to say that the 3rd August chart is probably the most synoptically perfect chart i've seen.

In all honesty there's no guarantee, this year could follow one of the analogues or a mixture and they will change over time. One area of success i have had is using them for a percentage based forecast and also for the hurricane season.

I agree, its bringing back memories of last March which is getting me all happy. Looks sunny to me does the forecast though not as warm. As the high resolution output goes i'll be at 12 days with no precipitation which is a feat.

We may want to look at the GEM in future... MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS- VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE: - CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC RUNS. OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO 3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.