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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. Euro aside that seems the more likely outcome this morning as all models essentially delay the Wednesday attack and just dissolve the high as it shifts north west. The end result being what I would assume is a cloudy cooler flow from the east until a low finally moves up.
  2. Notable that both the GFS and GEM bring the start of the breakdown forwards a day.
  3. Day 9 chart again does suggest the breakdown so it does look like like next Thursday is the day to monitor.
  4. Although there are differences in how it happens it's interesting that the models today fo shift the high by day 9 so what breakdown we get has moved a day forwards.
  5. Doubt we will challenge it at any point but can we confirm 2018 to the 15th and 20th. Obviously the first third won't have beaten.
  6. Out of interest with all the changing domes has this volcano actually increased height from before the eruption or is it just filling up the sorrounding valleys.
  7. Variations upon a theme tonight but the GFS, GEM and Euro operations all once again try break the pattern around day 10 albeit the GFS does not strengthen the primary jet the same way as GEM/Euro.
  8. Be wary in the long run. Note at day 6 the UKMO is sending the jet energy south much more akin to the GEM.
  9. As per June 20 the north west can do very well if the flow ahead is from the south east rather than south west.
  10. Still a tad early to say with the final third mostly unmodelled by anybody but the GFS but yes a CET similar to 2014/2019 is probable right now, possibly rivalling 2013 should we maintain the upcoming pattern.
  11. Certainly a much hotter outlook in the ten day timeframe with 30C likely to be broken. Euro and GEM suggest that pressure will fall and so we get a thundery plume, GFS maintains much stronger pressure. Moral is that there will be an upper trough somewhere near Biscay, how connected that is to the primary jet stream is another question. Would suggest as the middle ground that the Euro is most likely as things stand.
  12. Showers much more widespread now from about north of Leeds. More optimistic.
  13. Showers are developing around here and moving more or less north but a bit too sporadic.
  14. Pressure builds in around 4 days albeit models do suggest pressure will gradually fall in the 8-10 day period. Possible thundery interest.
  15. The warmth at night is driven by the fact that we've maintained weak areas of low pressure over us rather than moving through. As horrific as 07/11/12 could be the lows generally moved even if via the channel/southern England. I've found this summer surprisingly muggy myself especially at night which is probably also explaining why the CET has held up despite very little actual heat.
  16. (Credit to Matt Hugo for posting the charts on his Twitter feed). Latest Euro tropical convection forecast shows progression east until the final third of the month when it retreats to the Afro-Indian sector and Pacific trades strengthen. That suggests our window is basically out to the end of the month (though no guarantee of course).
  17. La Niña watch issues - 55% confidence.
  18. Not in the ten day timeframe, potentially afterwards.
  19. 4/10 here, unexceptional. June here was warm and dry overall but the warmth was driven by minima during the main warm spell and since then June and the first third of July has been unremarkable, probably a little cooler and wetter than normal. The most notable thing is the lack of 25C+ days here so far.
  20. NOAA discussion of most interest for me. For days 6-10 they ignore the GFS operational and go with a blend of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro operational. The reverse is true for the day 8-14 outlook where they punt on the operational GFS and Euro ensemble mean.
  21. Rolling CET rose to 9.88C for the July-June period.
  22. Standardised QBO value went easterly in June for the first time since May 2020. June PDO was the most negative for June since 1999. Strangely June had the most positive AO value for June since 2006.
  23. 30JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.1, Niño 4: 0.1 June ONI came in around -0.1. AMJ ONI came in at -0.5.
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