summer blizzard

August-October is peak season though recent years have produced nothing major for Florida.

Greetings. It may be on the early side (2 months until the official start) but i thought we discuss the coming season and people's thoughts. I'm personally leaning towards a reasonably active season but with quality over quantity when compared to the last few years, 2004 and 1990 are potential analogues. Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the tropics are well above average.

Most models going for near neutral recently with the CFS trending towards neutral-negative. I however am going to be a bull and suggest that neutral-positive is what we will see in the coming months.

Given that the climate is measured ove I don't know where he's getting the hurricane figures, we've just had 3 of the most active seasons in a row even if they were full of TS rubbish.

Summer 2005 was a summer of two halves. The first half was much warmer, drier and sunnier than average (the second half of June was the hottest since 1976 and the mid-June-mid-July period averages close to 18C i believe) however the second half of summer 2005 was pretty dank and depressing.

I know it's not strictly the right thread but i have a question and did'nt think i needed a whole new thread for it... I recall that the massive extinction event which gave rise to the dinosaurs was caused my mass warming and a slowing of ocean currents leading to stagnant water and the production of large amounts of Hydrogen Peroxide. My question is therefore, if the ice melts at the North Pole and no sinking occurs could this theoretically happen again? What time scale would be needed to produce similar disastrous effects? How much warming would be needed to achieve this? Is this even a forecast-able realistic scenario?

In terms of the ENSO and QBO phases i am inclined to believe that we stand the best chance since 2006 of a warm summer, with that said however the caveat here is the persistent -PDO phase and it's correlation to the AO would indicate a summer more in line with the 2007-2012 period. All to play for at the moment.

Good to go on that one.

Amazing sunshine, cloudless skies.

Wednesday. From the 13th Feb we went a total of 22 days with less than 5mm of rainfall in Leeds and modelling suggests that bar a surprise snow shower we could be going for 2 weeks or so.

What we got for the rolling CET?

GFS6z is still fairly cool for the most part with a lack of tropical air within the high however it would be fantastically sunny and dry with high durinal ranges.

Here on the edge of Leeds City Center i can just see two very small patches and one larger patch. All highly shaded from the morning sun and the bigger is shaded from the afternoon soon mostly by a tree.

You moved from the wilds of Cumbria?

Interestingly i've just being looking at hot months and their frequency since 1700. If we define a hot month as 16C+ in June and 18C+ in July and August then with 31 full decades the average frequency for June and July is actually only 0.7 per decade or to put another way over a 30 year period if you only had 2 hot summer months by this definition then you would essentially be around average, to contrast this between 2000 and 2006 we saw 2 of these months (June 2003 and July 2006 - June 2006 was 0.1C out). In August the average is even worse at 0.3 per decade. The exceptional statistics are yet to come however.... 1) Of 9 Augusts with a CET at or above 18C just 1 occurred before 1911 and 4 of these have occurred between 1990.and 2006 (more than 6 times the amount that would be expected). 2) Of 23 July's above 18C, over 20% of these have occurred over the past 30 years (more than double the amount that would be expected) 3) June is actually below trend, between 1940 and 1976 there were 5 'hot' months (a little above trend) but one since so one could say that upto 2016 we are overdue 2 hot Junes to add to 2003. 4) The only months in the year not to have a month from this century in their top 10 warmest are May, June and December so again one could say we are due a pretty exceptional June based on trend. I have to say, the thought of a hot May and June period (with the highest sunshine) fills me with joy.

No drought obviously however the GFS output would put some people on for around 2 weeks without precipitation, not long after the three weeks without spell.

Lovely output.

Not sure if you were talking solely about your location but actually we've seen at least one very hot short spell in summers 2009 (late July i think, horribly humid), 2010 (June was actually a great month), 2011(opening days of summer were terrific) and 2012 (late May and late July). I think its rather that what we want is a sustained spell which only June 2010 really even comes close to. I'm a newbie to gardening too, get to the gardening thread in the lounge.

One thing that may have passed us all by is that with you suggesting the opening week is to be cold that means a pretty to very warm second half is expected by most.

If were to take the 2.9C against the 1981-2010 average then bearing in mind that the 1981-2010 averages for February and March are 2.2C warmer then had this occurred in January or February it would have potentially yielded a CET of 0.7C. At the very least its the second most anomalous month this century to date (along with December 2010 perhaps the most anomalous months since February 1986).

I'll take June 2005, July 2006 and August 1995 please. I'm not a fan of heat but i am of extremes and the sun most of all so i'd love such a true classic.

Another beauty of a sunrise, all red/orange in the horizon.

Most models still go for warm-neutral conditions, at this range i wouldn't put faith in any but i don't see negative conditions coming back until late Autumn/winter if they do.

Not to toot my own horn but i did suggest that we'd move towards a warm-neutral/weak El Nino signature as Spring progressed and if things keep up i will be correct. The Atlantic is where we should look though, coming towards the hurricane season (only 2 months or so) those waters are very warm.

What a beautiful start for a change.