summer blizzard

Interesting. Despite the reflecting effect of Sulfuric Acid, could it not be that there may have being initial stratospheric cooling?

GFS ensembles say a ridge at day 9 which develops into a much more substantive high for us at day 13.

Do you know what the winter/summer were like? When Laki had its major eruption for months we got a warm summer and then cold winter.

Interesting goings on and the potential for some activity even. 1) In recent days ECWMF has put increasing definition in a cut-off low near the Caronlina's at day 5 now, GFS however has none of it although it's not an uncommon way to get genesis. 2) We should see a Kelvin wave increase the easterly trades from day 5 which could stimulate some development, the GFS18z of course opts to put on a show for us with a strong Tropical Storm headed for Cuba...

A poor outlook on the whole with a cool and unsettled pattern. The one crumb of comfort is that both the ECWMF and GFS ensembles suggest a ridge at day 10.

I live in an apartment which no doubt is made of metal bits, as such so long as the sun shines the temperature goes above 20C. Far too warm for my liking. very humid.

The worst thing is that my usual method suggested 10.7C, but i got all cocky and ignored it with some of the data looking warmer at the time.

Nothing from the 12z either.

No chance of an early suprise from the ECWMF. Looking at the GFS it's very similar although it tries to form a tropical depression off the coast of Belize near the end of the run.

Aye, 1997 and 2004 have held on the longest for a few months. Barely, it will almost certainly go negative this month as well.

Interestingly it seems as though the means and operational runs have all come up with a more settled picture from the west, warm but potentially cloudy in the east.

QBO (Neutral-Positive) 2011 2008 2004 1999 1997 1995 1991 1990 1988 1985 1981 MEI (Neutral) 2012 2009 2004 2002 2001 1997 1985 1979 1972 1965 1961 1960 PDO (Neutral-Negative) 2011 2002 1989 1976 1974 1969 1963 1959 GLAMM (Neutral-positive) 1981 1979 March-April 2011 2004 2002 1997 1985 1981 1979

Just too moist an environment perhaps.

1 in 3 chance of rapid intensification! Look at the core on this babe! Welcome back cane season!!!!!! This is why i love the weather!!!! Such beauty, such strength!

A FISH seemingly.

Not bad again....

The GFS18z operations is a very interesting run to me and one with hidden gems. Firstly we get a low on Sunday from the east which is weird in itself but weirder still is that it introduces and leaves behind warmer air, in any sunshine from Monday we could be looking not far 20C. Afterward we essentially see a similar picture with warm upper air but the high to the west ridging over the UK which keeps things dry and fairly warm all week...

I would not worry too much. We know there will be a high amplitude MJO wave moving through around that time but that's guarantee of development itself anyway and the hottest part of the basin is south of Jamaca and storms at this time of year are more likely to take a more westerly route than north (though possible). ............ Not the thread for it per say but the East Pacific is coming alive, several models have a tropical depression forming in the next few days.

What was summer 1981 like?

Some very interesting goings on... Firstly it appears as if movement is actually towards La Nina now rather than El Nino but at any rate we will be seeing a close to neutral Pacific setup. The AMO is pretty high, the tropical Atlantic is really heating up. Great video... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical384.gif ....... Perhaps most interesting though is the predicted forecast of the MJO in around 20 days forecast to be a high amplitude phase 7/8 wave which in the first ten days of June could lend itself to an early start, infact both the GFS and GEM ensembles have both gone for some south Carribean activity and the GFS operational tonight actually went bonkers (encouraging to see this early though)... I would also add that looking at the data i have high optimism for this hurricane, especially a more USA prone pattern.

I'm surprised you have not mentioned the dual outflow channels being generated by interaction with the tropical cyclone to it's north, a rare setup.

Still looking to day 15-20 (25th May onward) for a pressure build to the north and east of the UK in my opinion for any attempt at warmth. At least the Jet Stream is pretty weak though, just in the wrong place.

Have we ever had a summer with frequent pressure builds from the east? Looking at the ensembles and anomoly data in day 15-20 i can see an evolution to a -PNA pattern with the trough in the Atlantic backing west but unlike most summers where we see Azores ridging, this could herald a pattern where we look to Scandinavia for our ridges.

Low pressure close to the UK looks the order of the day to me, while the anomaly charts do point to an eventual retrogression of the trough (probably to the south west of the UK) there's also in my opinion a chance of pressure building in the Greenland/Scandinavian region. If we want warmth then we need the trough over the UK to sink south east and fade.

Despite the short longevity i rate this as the best start to May since 2008 for me (though not in the same league).