summer blizzard
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Posts posted by summer blizzard
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Down to -5 at the sub-surface.
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damianslaw I don't think one can ever really tell what the summer will be like from the spring.
Spring 2012 saw the brilliant March and a glorious final third of May but still went for the jugular.
Spring 2006 I believe had the latest 20C since 1996 at the time but a few days later bumped to the high twenties.
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Was wondering if there’s a record of average strength at 10hpa over winters as this would have to be on the weaker side.
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My general rule with the CFS and most ENSO models is to ignore actual values since they tend to amplify the sub-surface too much when it's rising and falling.
If we look at first year peak values though we get..
54: -0.9
64: -0.8
70: -1.4 (peak in Feb 71)
73: -2.0
83: -1.0
88: -1.8
95: -1.0
98: -1.6
05: -0.9 (peak in Jan 06)
07: -1.6
10: -1.6
16: -0.7
20: -1.3
So the range is -0.7 to -2.0 with a middle ground of say -1.4.
Worth saying for winter that a weak La Nina is probably preferable to a strong one.
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9.2C, 53mm.
Relatively settled compared to recent months with a -AO and the UK seeing somewhat transient ridges between slow moving Atlantic and Scandinavian Lows.
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Going, going, gone.
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13MAR2024: Nino3: 0.9, Nino3.4: 1.1, Nino4: 0.8
Sub-Surface down to -4.
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Just looking at transition speed from those who developed a La Nina as forecast and we're at least moderate at peak.
63/64: +1.4 to -0.6 was 6 months.
73/74: +2.1 to -0.5 was 5 months.
83: +2.2 to -0.5 was 8 months.
87/88: +1.7 to -0.9 was was 9 months.
94/95: +1.1 to -0.5 was 8 months.
97/98: +2.4 to -0.8 was 7 months.
09/10: +1.6 to -0.7 was 6 months.
15/16: +2.6 to -0.5 was 8 months.
Closest decline thus far is 1998 and 2016. We are tracking about a month ahead of 98 and 2 months quicker than 16 given the same pace but lower peak.
So current tracking suggests 6 months which is at least -0.5 in MJJ.
First year Nina's declared by MJJ are 54, 64, 73, 88, 07, 10.
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Addicks Fan 1981 Current modelling suggests we flip much quicker and harder. Think 1998 or 2010.
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raz.org.rain Probability is not guarantee.
I personally do believe that transitions do impact our climate however we must remember that in any given year there is a 33% chance of a cool, warm and near average outcome. That transitions may tip the scales does not mean that the likelyhood falls below say 1 in 5. You would not bet your car on it, but neither would you be shocked.
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SqueakheartLW Yes, indeed. While i'd ignore model strength for now as they are poor, the inability of this Nino to form a sustained standing wave means that it appears likely to collapse pretty quickly even if sub-surface SST's are only -2 or so.
I think it's more the case that since ~2002 we have arguably been in a multi decadal Nina/-PDO pattern, hence why we are seeing this Nino get sandwitched like 1972 and 2009.
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06MAR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.4, Nino4: 1.1
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Derecho Current SSW looks like it won’t downwell enough but we might see a more diluted weakness make it to the troposphere and wave activity can always enhance this.
So I’d say we might get an impact but late in the month.
Just in time to ruin April perhaps.
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Given the change in outlook, do we have any rolling annual precipitation comparisons.
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21FEB2024: Nino3: 1.4, Nino3.4: 1.5, Nino4: 1.2
28FEB2024: Nino3: 1.3, Nino3.4: 1.3, Nino4: 1.1
Feb ONI fell to +1.5.
DJF ONI fell to +1.8.
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And another which looks like it's struggling to downwell effectively.
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Canadian High further east than normal, we might have had more U.K. or Scandi blocking if we had a normal Nino +PNA and Alaskan Low. Likewise, second anomaly with high over Russia results in a cyclone near Greenland and a trough near us.
A broadly unkind winter.
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Sleet. Cold, heavy sleet.
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7.3C, 74mm.
High pressure to the east, low to the west. Probably more potential for warmth than cold given that it's rare to have a March cooler than Feb and Feb was mild enough that to be warmer is actually quite warm in March. Not especially dry as we may see an undercut attempt or two.
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I'd keep March 12.
I'd swap for April 07 (it felt a much more impressive month though I'm not sure if that's bourne out by maxima and sunshine).
I'd keep March 20.
I'd swap for June 18 or 06 (the final third of last June was horrifically humid).
I'd swap for July 13. June 18 became humid in the second half.
I'd keep August 22.
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Better down welling as we head towards mid March on this one.
https://twitter.com/MetRyan96/status/1761082180615221332?t=6IU6Ui2A0UAqr3Bc4XD5ZQ&s=19
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raz.org.rain The theory goes that flip years are disproportionately bad because of tendancy but like El Nino flip years (including 76, 06, 18) it doesn't guarantee the outcome. The link is far from clear cut here.
It may be worth splitting flip years by strength.
Years that made it to weak or neutral cold by years end are 1954, 1964, 1992, 2005, 2016.
Years which made it to moderate are 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2010.
Only applicable if the year started as El Nino and ended south of neutral.
Pace may also play a factor.
Years which saw a declared La Nina before July were 1954, 1964, 1973, 1988, 2007, 2010.
Years which saw a declared La Nina after July were 1970, 1983, 1995, 2005, 2016.
Would need to check the stats properly but it looks to me like pace may have more impact. The years which develop slower are the warmer summers from memory.
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14FEB2024: Nino3: 1.5, Nino3.4: 1.5, Nino4: 1.1
General summer chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
July 23 was a humid month while July 20 felt cool. I prefer 20.