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summer blizzard

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  1. 144317_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    INIT 02/1500Z 13.5N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

    12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

    24H 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

    36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

    48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

    60H 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH

    72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

    96H 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W 115 KT 130 MPH

    120H 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

  2. On another note i was quite happy with my summer forecast (based on expected ONI, PDO and QBO conditions and taking into account the spring tropical convection timings. I called for a little cooler than average June and July which was wrong but the pattern turned out correct (warmth in early June and late July, cool and unsettled between) so more an amplitude issue. August to be cooler than average (though i also went wetter). 

    So not full marks and with micro scale errors but the macro pattern was correct pleasingly.  

  3. Until earlier the mid and low level vortex were displaced and the wave axis tilted and broad. The mid level vortex today has essentially developed sufficiently to push down the atmosphere and become the primary center. Since the mid level vortex was close to the northern trough axis this has resulted in the models (which base their forecasts on where they think the low level vortex is initialised) having to adjust north and therefore east at landfall.


    Update - NHC will upgrade to TS Ida at the next advisory.

  4. NHC have declared TD9. Forecast to develop rapidly and could hit the Gulf Coast as early as Sunday after a trip over Cuba tomorrow. UKMO, GFS, Euro operationals range from about 950mb to 980mb however HWRF (specialist intensity model for the tropics and highly accurate according to the NHC) has been punting in the 930mb range. 

    Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity. The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.



    INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

    12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

    24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

    36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

    48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

    60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

    72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

    96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND


    For a first advisory i don't most of you will be aware of just how agressive that is. The NHC are normally very conservative in their initial forecasts.




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  5. 53 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

    Does the MJO always move through its phases 1-8 ,numerically, in order, or could it go into phase 1, then into 8, back to 7, 6, 5, then switch again back to 6,7 etc? If you know what i mean 🤣

    It usually moves sequentially but not through all the numbers so it may start in 3 and go to 8 ect.. You have to think of it as a clock.

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