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summer blizzard

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  1. Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GEM Europe 00Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten GEM Europe 00Z Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z Still looking good for the Saturday breakdown on GFS/GEM.
  2. 30C hit around Oxford on Xcweather. 26C here and actually picking up cloud.
  3. Surprisingly I actually feeo less oppressed today and I'm pretty sure last night was cooler than the previous night (had a faster gradiant drop by the time I went to bed and I woke up less). Xcweather has Wales the top spot at 28C so far and Yorkshire a little cooler than yesterday. Currently 24C here so about 2C down on yesterday.
  4. Despite the earlier talk of climate change actually at this time of year (the UK thermal maximum is Aug 12th) and with lapse rates about as high as you can get them (near 15C) we are seeing more or less what we'd expect from such a setup. Remember that even most summers do produce 30C and it just so happens the high center is just north of NI. Very hot, yes but not exceptional for the time of year.
  5. I think your referring to a few days ago when the models pulled the high west, that was supported by the UKMO and kind of happens. It's never showed the actual low moving in before Wednesday though. Well the models have delayed the cold front which doesn't really go until Sunday but they do now all agree that the high gives way to a low on Fri/Sat with a front/storms thrown up even if still warm on Saturday. They may delay a little but I doubt they'll change to keep the high.
  6. Wednesday, pressure holds an extra 48 hours but models do seem to agree on the weekend.
  7. Interesting. Must admit I never clocked that in advance.
  8. According to Xcweather it's still the Vale Of York, Humberside and Wellesbourne at 29C. Suspect the later may get the highest of the day being a little further south with a higher gradient through the afternoon.
  9. The problem here is the indoor temperature is abnormally warm all over the house (though I have a fan) because there's just no wind and even going to bed last night around midnight the room temperature was about 24C. Hopefully a clearer evening tonight will allow a faster temperature drop.
  10. Vale Of York now tearing ahead at 28C. Wonder if Reef is getting his rare heat.
  11. The durinal range was apparently very impressive in Aug 95. Places recording 30C to zero. Likely very low humidity.
  12. Vale of York and South West as things stand. 27C in Newquay.
  13. GFS tonight sticks to the morning script with a day 7/8 breakdown. GEM never properly removes the warm air and has what one assumes would be a humid sweatbox. What they both agree on though is that when the low arrives, it will produce copious amounts of rainfall next weekend.
  14. We have actually seen the passage of the final 10C air pushed from Wednesday to Saturday already albeit the breakdown is a slow and messy thursday-sat now.
  15. So good news and bad news on the breakdown watch front for those of us who want Autumn to arrive early. The good news is that although a tad more aggressive the GFS, Euro and GEM all agree on a breakdown starting around day 7. The bad news is that this looks a little slow and protracted with the proper cold front not through until day 9. The good news of course from this being that we have gone back to a wet and potentially thundery breakdown as we get a front from the south.
  16. Still messy but the Euro and GFS tonight do shift the high for a day 7/8 breakdown.
  17. Surprisingly the latest NOAA discussion does go 60% with the GFS ensemble blends and only 40% Euro so they may move away from such a rosy outlook beyond a week on the anomoly chart.
  18. Just taken a look and the first half will come in warmer than the first half of July 19 (16.8) but will be nowhere close to 2018 (19.6).
  19. It seems the consensus seen yesterday has somewhat dissolved. On the 0z models we saw a loose Euro/GFS alliance persist through day 9 Vs GEM. On the 6z the GFS has joined the GEM in a very agressive shift of the pattern such that in a week's time they say 'job done'.
  20. Looking at the GFS and like the UKMO the angle is much worse for heat lovers such that by Monday/Tuesday there will be a weak surface flow from the north east (and i suspect cloud away from the evenings). After that and it largely fits in with the pattern seen this morning as the high essentially just dissolves over time and an upper low moves up from the south west closer to day 9. Hot and dry over the weekend to mild and muggy seems the order of the day.
  21. Important to note that uppers are still plenty warm before then so 25-30C is still possible/probable somewhere like Cheltenham during the weekend.
  22. 07JUL2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: -0.1
  23. Would suspect that it is wrong given your near enough the center but the center of the high is just to your south bringing a westerly flow and Glasgow is coastal. The models have generally kept the high a bit further west than previously suggested to prolong it.
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