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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. As per my gif above and another zoomed in version net sub-surface anomolies are now negative again in the ENSO region and down to circa -3. Upwelling is already starting to occur east of the dateline. I believe the appropriate term for the coming weeklies will be 'geronimo'.
  2. Like the UK Ireland likely has Victorian plumbing and if they've not done any more replacement work than us it will generate huge leakage as ours does. Being wetter they probably also don't carry as much spare capacity
  3. Worth saying that the anomoly charts are not automated and can be clearly seen when reading the prognostic discussion. They are basically just global FAX charts so the human element will usually smooth out bias.
  4. Hottest spots so far seem to be south west England and north Wales at 30C. Here in Leeds it's 26C. Sme showers now starting to crop up.
  5. Surprised 2006 ended up so much lower than 2018 even with August. I recall it being pretty much as glorious.
  6. Can also confirm that the first two thirds beat 2019 but not 2018 (19.2C).
  7. The June was probably as notable as July for day to day experience. I enjoyed the summer a lot. The June was drier and the most anticyclonic on record.
  8. With regards to humidity it’s worth saying that July onwards does tend to generate high values. While they were low in 2013, 2006 and early 2018 it is a month that tends to have notably more humid hot spells than June.
  9. 14JUL2021 - Niño 3: 0.1, Niño 3.4: -0.1, Niño 4: -0.4
  10. Solid agreement out to day 10 from Euro, GEM and GFS with a cyclonic, cool pattern taking over from 27th/28th.
  11. Here in Leeds we were forecast to hit 28C by 16.00 however actually thanks to cloud only now breaking we’ve been stuck around 20C.
  12. Do we know what the maximum temperature of this spell was thus far. I note that the UKV dropped its lavish 34C idea.
  13. Very low confidence this month as my methods basically conflict punting for 15.4C and 17.5C. I shall pop in the middle and go for 16.5C but 110mm.
  14. Credit to Matt Hugo’s Twitter feed which you should all check out. Essentially it does not mean that we will have a 2014 horror of an August but the latest Euro tropical convention forecast shows the trades dominating the Pacific east of the dateline throughout August and a standing wave in the Indian Ocean. Not a typically good background signal.
  15. Seems unlikely, even the Euro has removed the 10C uppers by the 27th.
  16. Still coming out but closer to GEM than Euro this morning. Surface trough forming near our east in around a week. Cyclonic, cool and showery.
  17. 2006 was especially notable because on the day the July record went I remember people posting here that the dew point was only 8C. July 13 also had humidity in the 35-39% range quite often which did not feel oppressive (this one seems to be close to 50% but there’s zero wind too making it worse). Here in Leeds the wind is forecast to back from the East from tomorrow evening so while still very hot on Wednesday and Thursday I’m hoping it may feel less oppressive.
  18. So high amplitude that I don’t think one could ever draw upon it much. We are further ahead in the solar cycle and that saw a very strong Niña though so I don’t agree with the comparison.
  19. Rather weak signal right now for me. 74, 08, 55, 71, 84, 99, 11, 17 are Q4 analogues to pencil.
  20. Gavin in the other realm estimated 17.95C last night, warmer in tonight's models. We could end up with a 18C+ month thanks to the first half creeping up despite feeling no better than average.
  21. Wellesbourne hit 31C for our highest official reading I believe.
  22. More of a Channel Low type setup than just storms so a front will drench most of England.
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