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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. Radar looking better than I expected for this time albeit not so much excitement here.
  2. Euro and GFS out to day 8 do broadly support a continued cyclonic pattern before the Euro joins GEM in supporting a more ridge based outlook. vs
  3. AAM convection forecast keeps the convection in the west pacific during July even if strong. Suggests we should we looking for Azores ridging rather than Scandi (albeit at that amplitude even a very displaced Azores High would be golden for heat lovers (drove summer 03 and 13 primarily - 06, 95 and 18 being more Scandi based).
  4. I'm not trying to play it down. It has not had the sunshine of other halves nor the Maxima (not actually sure we've breached 25C here) but yes, we are judging it against mostly second halves which makes it a little harder to compare. If it does drop below 15.9C then that probably reflects the feel here.
  5. Here in Leeds i'd consider it non-exceptional and likely forgettable albeit it's more difficult to compare it as a warm first half because they have been less common over the past two decades. Certainly 03/05/06/17/18/20 all produced better halves for me.
  6. Flow is cyclonic out of the east or even north east away from a small corner so i'm not certain it would. That also assumes we don't have precipitation in the area which with a cyclonic flow is not unlikely. Regarding the 12z models and both the GEM and GFS do agree on some kind of cyclonic flow persisting through day 7 however in a departure from this morning they do then both rebuild pressure through days 8-10.
  7. 02JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: 0.0 This month is likely as warm as it gets, sub-surface is about to go net negative again.
  8. UKMO12z is certainly of interest but not yet supported by the 0z or 12z models. Looking at the 12z GFS and GEM today we do see support for a cyclonic pattern however while the GEM has a strong jet stream, the GFS stalls, weakens and absorbs the low near us.
  9. The GFS run is certainly notable but more so for the rainfall it produces. It starts then simply does not stop.
  10. I still favour a short one personally. We saw in the last cycle a strong surge to a 2011 peak before a stable final peak in 2014. Nothing I have noted yet suggests that this is much different.
  11. The Screenshot has full predictions for all groups. I stated the player, Mbappe. France.
  12. Mbappe to be top goal scorer and player of the tournament. For everything else i'll go with this. "GOALSCORER"/"SUPER STRIKER" SELECTIONS “GOALSCORER” 1. - **Kylian MBAPPE** [Fra]. “GOALSCORER” 2. – **Romelu LUKAKU** [Bel]. “GOALSCORER” 3. – Ciro IMMOBILE [Ita]. “GOALSCORER” 4 – Timo WERNER . “GOALSCORER” 5 – Alvaro MORATA [Spa]. “GOALSCORER” 6 -Robert LEWANDOWSKI [Pol]. SUBSTITUTE 1 - **Harry KANE** [Eng]. SUBSTITUTE 2. - Federico CHIESA [ITA].
  13. GFS12z really suggests we might need an arc with its handling of the weekend low (more like the GEM0z) - self interest though, wet French GP potential. GEM12z is very similar to the GFS/Euro 0z runs.
  14. Essentially a shortwave that forms to our south sometimes during a breakdown and moves north if the primary low is sufficiently stalled.
  15. I am fairly sure this bookie is biased making England favourates. £3 on Germany to win £2 on France each way
  16. With regards to the 0z runs a good point was made above that in all the breakdown excitement many of us missed that the second low for wednesday has slowed down, drawing up 10C+uppers ahead of it briefly. The GFS and Euro then move the low through while the GEM dissolves the low and stalls the breakdown (though they all slow the low approaching at the weekend). vs (entirely different setup as a low forms from our south) The GFS6z did also move a little towards the GEM in stalling that breakdown to Thursday before then moving back inline with the Euro for the weekend
  17. GFS18z continues its recent trend of developing a low over England around day 10.
  18. 12z GFS coming out now with details of its breakdown. At day 4 we see a dead cold front moving through bringing cool air. At day 6 we see the second low move through with low pressure in full control from this point. By day 10 most heat lovers are on the valium as the 12z does its best 07/12 impression.
  19. Yes so we obviously never made it through May without development but there's nothing for the next few days forecast despite a favourable convection passage. 2018 and 2019 actually managed to get to July before their second system.
  20. Looks similar to the GFS evolution around day 10 mb.
  21. Yes, all horrifically warm. Interesting the QBO should bar a stall turn negative this month on standardised values and the May PDO value at -2 was the most negative since 2012.
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