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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. Euro and GFS May differ on spec but both do agree that the Atlantic probably wins by day 9. 18z has the Atlantic motor firmly switched back on by then.
  2. I'm a big fan of July 2013 despite normally siding with cooler summers. June was dry and cloudy and cool but around the end of the first week high pressure built in and stayed for three weeks straight, sunny, hot but low humidity which for me made it preferable to 2014, 2018, 2016, 2019, 2010 and other warm ish July's this decade. Looking at the charts it was simply a very northward displaced Azores High so I guess sourced from the west rather than east.
  3. As much as i would like that (not had a sub 15.2C July since 1988) the Euro was not supportive this morning so heatwave or just a bit warm i tend to discount that. The more likely landing zone if we return to the Atlantic is the 15.3-15.8C requirement for the coolest July since 2012.
  4. Not a fan of warmth for sleeping either. Anything above 15C is usually an irritant. Past week or so has been wonderful for sleeping though.
  5. We should beat all those first thirds (do you have the 1st-10th figures for 07, 11, 12?) although we can't guarantee beating 2016 for the first half.
  6. We've probably had some recent ones that I've forgotten but are there any July's since 2012 that had sub 16C first halves or first thirds.
  7. The answer here is not that recent August's have been historically poor (bar a handful) but that 83-04 period especially inflated the average.
  8. While bad I think some are OTT, it's a bit early to call July akin to 07, 11, 12 and June was better than last year (people forget that the first 20 days were comparable to 07).
  9. I've seen a few recent tweets about the QBO and the lower bunch of easterlies. Was wondering what your thoughts are since the normal values are 10-50hpa.
  10. The Euro and GFS both demonstrate different ways of doing it (the Euro just dissolves the high while the GFS has it absorbed by one over north west Russia) but the net result is the same with our settled spell essentially reduced to a 3 day affair at days 5-8.
  11. GW in the other realm is estimating around 16.1C to the 19th albeit that requires a more or less sustained warm up from the 12th as modelling currently shows. The final third will certainly be interesting.
  12. Thanks to the horrific early errors from me I'm only up to 38th, granted not following the crowd may do me some favours this month.
  13. I feel the need to point out that a -AO does not require a SSW and one in early December is statistically unlikely. I will say that we will be in the top 10 spotless years again which is statistically favourable.
  14. Leaf colour seems to have more to do with Autumn sun and night temperature. The May-June dynamic seems to have generated great berry growth though.
  15. 4th day of July and will believe I may have achieved my first sun hour.
  16. Only the CFS was wrong, the Euro absolutely crushed it on -AAM.
  17. It's not that abnormal to be fair. Although the assumption was a quick flip (some events literally drop by 1 on the Oni scale in 3 months) there are plenty (95, 05, 07) which slow burn the transition. Strictly speaking a weak Nina is also much better than a proper event for winter anyway.
  18. You've just suggested that we are overdue an August comparable to the 5th and 1st hottest August's in over 300 years of records. By definition we are not overdue. What we are more overdue is an August exceeding 17.4C so something like last July.
  19. Yes, we've got a strange situation where all the cold has concentrated east of 160E. The daily values in 1.2 are below 1. The outlook in the Pacific does look like producing persistent trades over and west of the dateline though so we may see 3.4 cool back down. Never underestimate the ability of the weather to try screw you is the lesson.
  20. 1.9C above average being fifth is very indicative of just how warm the August average has probably become relative to prior averages.
  21. To be fair there’s been no August more than 2C above the 1981-2010 average since 1997 either.
  22. There is no strong summer to winter correlation.
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