summer blizzard

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About summer blizzard

  • Birthday 06/02/89

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. 2012 was the last time August was the warmest summer month.
  2. Looks more normal again now..
  3. 1.2: 0.5 3.4: -0.5
  4. Went in and found 55mph winds however the center is somewhat exposed so the NHC won't declare. It all comes down to the durinal minimum.
  5. A very poor state of affairs (anomalies of 0.6, 0.2 and ~0.6). Only the second half of July really had enough warm weather to warrant such a feat. Consistently unspectacular is how i'd describe it.
  6. 99L has improved somewhat overnight becoming a single blob and you can see evidence of winds from the S/E/N so we're just waiting for the circulation to close. Google maps suggest this will probably happen today if things hold up. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-50.71,16.42,3000/loc=-61.497,17.006 Euro loves it again.
  7. Recon were unimpressed as suspected and i still think the circulation is quite broad (though it's probably not having a problem closing, i think the main problem is it's lack of definition) however it does look fairly stacked (so no speed/shear issues). If you look below then the center is more or less where the deepest blob of convection is but over a larger area, the top half of the storm is probably going to make it look like a Sonic the Hedgehog type system if it actually develops. Speaking of.. the Euro went nuts again..
  8. Circulation is too broad and not really closed off. It won't be declared tonight however it's making progress.
  9. Not a cane (no real eyewall), just a very well defined circulation.
  10. 99L appears to be getting some model support for development, the last Euro's especially have had the panhandle seeing a cat 2/3. It's also firing -80C cloudtops this morning. Currently we do have a broad low underneath the convection and now a 60% chance of development. Looks like dry air is the main problem as well as Fiona's remains.
  11. Just tomorrow (and possibly Wednesday depending on front timing) to get through here then there's every chance that for all intensive purposes, summer will be done.
  12. Ha. 2005 was the most active season on record with more than twice the average named storms. 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were all above average. The season to date looks on track to match the NHC forecast of the most active since 2012, by the time August is out we may have seen our first major. .. You may imagined the other seasons being poor due to quality, 2012 and 2013 failed to produce even one category 4 and the last seasons were on the lower end of average (though the quality went up markedly).
  13. 3 of the last 4 GFS runs have had 99L in the Gulf.
  14. GFS18z is an east coast hit at 979mb (cat 2). GFS seems to have decided it wants development, the question is how strong the ridging is. Of course the Euro kills it.
  15. As much as some seem to love to the idea of a plume i have to say that this week has been lovely, especially outside of the sun. As such i'm hoping that GEM is closer to reality..