summer blizzard

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About summer blizzard

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. The last recon found evidence of a pending eyewall replacement cycle so we could see a decline to cat 3 before strengthening on approach to Jamaica. It's a banding feature that just looks a bit odd because the storm was moving SW (may be starting to make the turn northward now) and because there was a bit of SW shear (hence all the extra mass that these systems surround themselves with is all on the east side).
  2. Updated advisory.. 945mb, 150mph. Matthew will be category 5 by morning.
  3. Recon is back in.. 941mb... 132KT at the surface. A few more passes like that and we'll have an upgrade to 150mph.
  4. .. This thing is incredible. Firstly we can visibly see that it's a pretty storm and when you chop off the eastern blob of convection you can see that it has a bit of a rugby ball look to it. This is the look that the Pacific canes get, that Joaquin had and that Earl had upon landfall albeit we sadly never got to see it bomb. Secondly, at about 15mb up in the atmosphere the winds increase to 176mph so if this thing gets deeper those may start to mix down to the surface. .. Those in Jamaca and Cuba will in all likelyhood be staring down the barrel of a cat 4/5.
  5. SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) Amazingly this thing will actually be in an even more moist, warmer sea and lower shear environment at day 5 than it is now so there's nothing to prevent strengthening bar landfall.
  6. autumn

    As we bask in the high pressure next week (though i suspect cloudy for the east) i thought this chart would interest you all showing the cool surface air developing to our east.
  7. GFS and Euro operationals show the system passing east of Jamaca and out to see although there are big differences in speed. Euro ensembles are west of Jamaca and into the gulf. GFS ensembles are with the operational. 75% chance it pounds Cuba (NHC has it hit at 105mph) and then goes out to sea. 25% chance it goes for Florida/the Gulf.
  8. While a direct hit is relatively unlikely if it gets anywhere near the Bahamas it's likely that the atmosphere will be very unstable over Florida meaning that your probably going to spend a few days being rained on.
  9. Euro slams a category 4 into southern Florida. GFS ensembles do a Sandy/Irene. Euro ensemble mean is west of the operational, headed for the gulf.
  10. Interestingly the 18z almost misses the trough (you can see it quite well on the two frames) and this is only days 4 and 5.
  11. 97L now at 90%. Sadly for us however it looks as though after brushing South America it will be caught by a trough and come north (impact in Cuba or Haiti) before it goes up the east coast. Likely to become a strong hurricane then but probably won't get anything other than a weak landfall. You can see the trough here with it's trailing front and below the Euro ensembles.
  12. The wave that came off Africa became Lisa so we'll be 12/5/1 assuming Karl becomes a hurricane. More interestingly though is the wave behind that system which has now come off Africa and been given a 20% chance of development by the NHC. The Euro does nothing with it tonight nor it's ensembles (it did develop this morning) however the GFS is going absolutely gagga for it and has developed it every run for the past few days. Around day 5 the wave approaches the Leewards and gets declared.. By day 10 it's a Caribbean cruiser headed for the Yucatan or western Cuba ..
  13. 60mph with falling pressure. Not far off hurricane strength now.