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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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  1. I should clarify by saying that i don't believe a 1976 repeat is likely (i'm a stats man and a hell of a lot of analogues suggest a front load). Simply that the CET with such an extreme forecast could be in that region for this month.
  2. Unlikely. We'd still struggle to match 1976 for the CET after corrections. Though at 2C+ above average and the warmest in 40+ years it would be exceptional, not least since May felt warmer overall.
  3. That Friday chart is insane. Pressure ~1025mb and uppers above 15C means 30C possibly from Inverness to London. Shades of 2013 rather than the usual lower pressures seen in recent years which cause a humid fest and high cloud when it's that's warm.
  4. Comments around the GFS mainly relate to the post day 10 period when it has been cutting off the warmth and fear of the front load.
  5. Euro would only start increasing the CET from the 24th and you get less movement towards the end so probably not that high, especially after corrections. Should be round about last years figure though. Assuming a finish with a 16C in front of it then only 1785 and 1786 are consecutive years to match 2017 and 2018. They were also yet more examples of the front load, sinking like the Titanic as summer goes on.
  6. summer blizzard

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    As alluded to the cyclonic wave moving across the Pacific in the last few weeks looks to be producing a greater build of pressure over the mid-lattitudes and allowing for some lag should last the first third of July. We should see a flattening of the jet stream afterward albeit nothing that should produce a horror show. Afterward it really comes down the fact that if the pattern repeats then there are another two or three opportunities this summer for pressure builds that sustain for a while. If the seasonal models and analogues are correct then perhaps they believe that convection will struggle to occur outside the Indian Ocean and the trades will enhance.
  7. As expected that burst of westerlies across the Pacific during the first ten days of June (allowing for some lag) will deliver a more settled outlook as we head into the new month (my own expectation is for the more pronounced ridging to last the first third of July) before probably something more ordinary takes hold in terms of the usual N/S split.
  8. Trades and westerlies both weak but setting up on the Nino side of the board (trades over the Indian Ocean, convection over the Pacific) so those looking for a warmer pattern may all things being equal be in look as we move into July. No guarantee of course (summer 2004 and 2009 both saw poor July's during a neutral-weak Nino). Current modelling is refreshingly poor with higher heights finally building north..
  9. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    In theory the frequency should increase the further we go into the year. If we are running at over 50% now, it's not a stretch to push that.
  10. summer blizzard

    Tropical storm Bud

    Location: 18.1°N 108.2°WMoving: NW at 7 mphMin pressure: 948 mbMax sustained: 130 mph
  11. summer blizzard

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    AO value for May came in at +1.1 which is among the highest since 1950. Looking at other years with +1 May values we get.. 2009 2003 1992 1966 1964 1956 Unfortunately for you summer lovers those summers on the whole (looking at the reanalysis chart) see the settled June followed by a second half horror show. Breaking it down a bit.. 2009 had a relatively average summer with June and August a little warmer and drier than normal while July was cooler and wetter than normal. 2003 was of course among the hottest summers and August breaching the 18C mark (5th hottest). 1992 is the classic example of front loaded with a warm June followed by poor July and August. June is +1.2C vs the 1981-2010 mean, August is -1.1C vs the 1981-2010 mean. 1966 is an extreme front load with June being the warmest month of the summer, departures of +0.9, -1.7, -1.7. 1964 was a little cooler than average from start to finish, a cooler version of 2009 in effect. 1956 was a very cool summer with an August that was -2.9C vs the 1981-2010 average .. It would seem from the above then that you guys are rolling a dice (1 in 6) albeit we can probably discount the later two since we are likely to start the summer with a CET somewhere in the 15C's. .. Looking purely at a statistical base.. June: Equal chances of below average, close to average, above average. CET range of 13.1C to 16.1C. July: 83% chance of a value within 1C of average, 1966 discounted. CET range of 15.8C to 17.6C. August: 50% chance of a value more than 1C below average (~33% of a value within 1C of average), 2003 discounted. CET range of 13.5C to 15.3C. .. If the pattern follows then finishes near the high end of those ranges give us a summer not much different to 2010. If we low ball after June and follow the front loaded pattern then something like 15.5, 16, 15 is possible and would dissapoint.
  12. Euro is perhaps a bit overstated in that it's more or less a 3 day ridge in terms of proper ridging from days 7-9 however yes, it does look more like a N/S affair post day 6.
  13. Both highlight the retention of a +AO pattern which is driving the mid-lattitude high development.
  14. Some of that could be down to ice melt possibly. We know that in a lot of years the North Pacific looks absurdly cold for few weeks on the anomolies but it usually clears itself up (obviously looks worse in -PDO years). I would also add for those who believe the Met Office's May SST-Winter NAO link, this is a horrifically awful pattern. The exact opposite tripole to what we want.
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