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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Here in the city centre it changes depending on strength. If we can get something prolonged and heavy then evaporative cooling should do the rest. Larger and heavier shower is inbound on radar within the next half hour. Producing snow in Manchester city centre.
  2. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    At this range modelling is less important. Anything that reaches here should be snow and it looks like after lunch, plenty should reach here.
  3. The interesting feature on the 12z models for me was that by day 9 both the GFS and Euro had the Siberian High at 1060mb (no doubt why some people are open to a pressure rise to our north east). Be interesting to see if the 18z maintains that.
  4. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Regarding today and tomorrow i am cautiously optimistic. The temperature is already at 3C and places like the airport should start to see things turn to snow pretty soon (it's pretty much all snow north of Yorkshire now) and most importantly the showers are actually making it far enough east (keeping strength well until at least York). BBC (no doubt taking from their higher resolution mesoscale models) suggest speradic showers until about 2pm at which point we are guns blazing. Snow watch is officially online.
  5. Personally i am suspicious of any forecast for a developing El Nino now that the 2015/2016 westerlies have been scrubbed.
  6. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    For all the doom and gloom this morning the GFS is still suggesting that Tuesday and Friday will deliver even if shower activity. Generally horrid week in the feel though, wind chill often below zero and fairly strong.
  7. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    GFS seems to think i get 36 hours of snow on Tuesday but as per a few posts up it's reliant on showers and streamers. Folks around Leeds should be optimistic for some snow (we've done okay out of pretty westerly flows in the past, most notably xmas day 04 and 16th Dec 10) but i suspect it'll be occasional showers and no more than an inch rather than anything persistent.
  8. There are three main differences on that chart but while two are a little worse, one is better. 1) The first is that the high is tilted at a worse angle due to more energy to it's north east. 2) The second is that the Atlantic is a little stronger here and so everything is 100-200 miles east however looking at it this seems to be a simple case of the primary low being 10mb stronger rather than anything important 3) The positive - On tonight's run more energy is headed south east with the front across the UK being weaker. This is a good thing if we can get the wave to form a secondary low over southern France/Italy at day 6-7-8 ect..
  9. I'm still not sold on us getting an easterly but statistically speaking the UKMO is over the course of a year, season or whatever a far superior model to GFS. The gap has reduced since 2014 though when the UKMO was just about the worlds best with the GFS getting a few updates since (not sure what the Met is planning for the model). The two keys on that chart are firstly that we can see from the contour line that the easterly has made it to south east England (though probably not too strongly) but more importantly that the kink in that front is over the channel suggesting that a secondary low is trying to form and may be south enough to try undercut.
  10. Probably not something most people have noticed with all the focus on snow but as the models stand there's a very real chance that large parts of the UK will see no precipitation for a good week.
  11. Jan 09 was unique in that it is one of the only upwelling events ever recorded. Essentially if you think of our December pattern and how the trop managed to slow zonal winds further up for a while, it was just more effective. Much like our own event though, after the initial plunge we saw the stratosphere cool (because the higher levels had not been completely decimated) and then by mid-Feb it was all over. GEFS mean does suggest that zonal winds will be no higher than average by about the 20th though so with our kind trop this year, i'd think that even with no SSW we'll probably see a better pattern more consistently into February.
  12. Tendency would always suggest bad in that regard, you'd want to be headed from and towards. 2014 was probably the missed one in that regard.
  13. Statistically speaking the highest chance of hot CET month comes overwhelmingly from warm-neutral/weak Nino though even they are no guarantee. At any rate i would certainly not rule out a multi-year Nina even if not too strong and gappy.
  14. 1010mb is pretty low, lower than average infact. I think the valid concern is that outside the south east corner, most places look like seeing 1030mb pressure values or such and that will mean that they will struggle to see significant shower potential.
  15. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Solid snow in LS12, not a classic event but it is a solid event with full coverage and one or two drivers struggling on. Side roads.