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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on August 22

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  1. summer blizzard

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    The question of snow or freezing rain comes down to who is south of the triple point. North of it should be snow. It should be easy to see this on radar tonorrow.
  2. 2010 had three technically in Feb and March but none the rest of the year. The others just had the one then the normal final warming. 1998 technically had two (April and December). .. There are a couple of years which provide multiple in a winter but because of how rare Nov/Dec are, there are not many that have consecutive winters in the same year.
  3. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    .. Guys, if we only took the data for Q3 this year then what percentage of spotless days were there (and Q4 so far).
  4. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Yeah, the gradient does actually look shallower on that chart. It's just that out lower starting spot has put us ahead. With us now in 15th spot for spotless years it will be interesting to see how 2019 and 2020 challenge the top years.
  5. Having just had a chance to review this mornings output i consider many of you too despondent. Although it's true that the easterly attempt is a flop the Euro (backed by the GFS6z) illustrates that the jet stream is still more or less headed into central/southern Europe and so while wet the chances of an eventual northerly or easterly once the upper trough moves east of the UK are still relatively high. It's really not a bad place to be in the long run.
  6. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    No idea.
  7. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    With regards to the forecast for solar cycle 25 there is a link between a longer minimum favouring a weaker amplitude to follow but less of a link between a solar cycle causing a lower minimum to follow so it seems the minimum leads the peak. Since we are 30 months in to our cycle and now somewhere near 400 spotless days we are approaching the time where we will find out if this minimum will be what we dream of. Typically shorter and less deep minima see the sharper fall and then quickly rebound (month 33 is average) with cycles like the last one seeing a slower decent. If in 6 months we are still flatlining then chances are we will smash records given that we are running well ahead of 08.
  8. One interesting but unnoticed thing is that the GFS has been consistent until the 6z in saying that winds do not turn to the NE until early Wednesday. The 6z (although it has the Atlantic through quicker) changed that to Tuesday.
  9. Should see snow at day 8-9 inland, day 10 only around the east coast.
  10. Strong likelyhood that this event is near peak now. Sub-surface temperature in both 1.2 and 3.4 fell in November from October and sub-surface maps backs that up especially in 3.4 with primary warmth to the east now at the sub-surface. SON ONI was +0.7 with a November value of +0.9. The surface will carry on increasing for a while but it looks likely that the event should peak this month or early next without a rogue Kelvin wave.
  11. Given that we have (for now) a consistent signal to displace the stratospheric vortex over Siberia in around 15 days i can actually see the logic in high pressure tending to sink over/west of us after a brief easterly attempt such that the tropospheric vortex can drop a Scandi trough. We may have to wait a few extra days but i can definitely see the support for northerly over easterly.
  12. The important thing on todays runs is not so much the easterly attempt but the solid signal for a displaced vortex with wave 2 activity. These charts could suggest a major warming in the final third of December. GFS has more energy in the Eurasian lobe so i suspect would not get there this run.
  13. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Amazing day tomorrow.
  14. summer blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    Still have more research to do but initial thoughts are good in terms of a colder Jan-Feb period. First half of Jan and Feb likely to be the coldest periods of the winter. Feb potentially very dry. December likely to be mobile though not overly warm. March is likely to be relatively blocked near the UK, two of my analogues see 20c+.
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