raz.org.rain
Sub-surface anomalies are pretty nuts currently so as soon as they surface we are going to see a stonking fall. We are likely go beyond -0.5 between July and September based on pacing from 1954, 2007 and 2010 which are good matches overall (a little ahead generally).
1959, 1966, 1984, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2016 and 2020 finished Q2 neutral after Nino events finished.
1998, 2016 and 2020 did move to La Nina by the end of Q3.