summer blizzard

12.4, 54mm. For the first time in some time, i see an anticyclonic pattern. Blocking over the UK and to the north and east. Shades of last May.

Something to watch but signs of a WWB progressing east into May which may generate mid-lattitude blocking closer to mid month.

17APR2024: Nino3: 0.5, Nino3.4: 0.7, Nino4: 0.8

B87 Strong trades around the dateline (easterlies) typically strengthen the mid-lattitude jet in response (stronger westerlies) and suppress AAM. It's why a lot of people tend to think that La Nina produces less favourable summers for the UK.

Anecdotal but for a lot of recent developing La Nina's, it's July that the trades in the Pacific suddenly pop up raging. Probably related to the timing of the monsoon season or something creating a downstream wavelength that can be amplified.

SqueakheartLW Current warmth is surface level and looks likely to be replaced.

Without defining what we consider dissapointing we can't really say. A lot of these type of questions are anecdotal and depend on subjective assessment. If we look at 2013, 2018 and 2022 as producing the 'proper summers' then actually spring 2013 was persistently poor, spring 2018 was essentially a flip and spring 2022 was mild and dry but i had to look it up which suggests the weather experienced was somewhat forgettable. What we know of March and April is that they will both come in fairly warm and wet so a more objective assessment would be to look at comparable years. March above 7.7C and April above 9C yields... 2022 2019 2017 2014 1997 1961 1948 1945 1779 1734 March and April above 100m yields.. 2001 1818 When we take out subjective anecdotal evidence, those are our best matches.

10APR2024: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.9, Nino4: 0.7

Is this hail or is this snow because it looks and feels like snow.

Sun Chaser Sadly I think its easier this time of year. April 09 was a cloudy and humid month here. March 17 and 24 were both unexceptionable. All have very warm CET's such that people probably won't question them in a few decades. July 22 is another example, for Yorkshire and Manchester barely more than a 2 day wonder.

In our hunt for an anticyclone it's worth saying that the Euro0z had 1020mb+ over the whole UK from days 7-10.

Before anybody gets overly excited it's worth remembering that the AO values are normally close to neutral in summer and that +/-1 months are rare. The polar vortex is net easterly regardless of what happens until late August.

Summer8906 I would hesitate to put 2022 on that list. The others produced nationwide summers, while by the time your as far north as even Leeds and Manchester, July 2022 was mediocre outside a handful of days. The two week spell was restricted to the south unlike the others. August 2022 was worthy of course but an individual month.

May 2020 was delightful and the trees here in full leaf.

03APR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.2, Nino4: 0.9