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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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About summer blizzard

  • Birthday 06/02/89

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    Male
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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Now at 52 days beating 2010. Next target is 2006 at 70. The last solar cycle was originally forecast to be around the same as 01 but was heavily revised because of the depth of the minima we saw.
  2. It's probably also worth adding that there is a monster of a Kelvin Wave crossing the Atlantic in early August. This may suggest a period of tropical storm/hurricane formation so watch for those systems to start playing with the models.
  3. Fading memories of 2010

    A truly exceptional set of winters and one that many are probably lucky to have experienced in their lifetimes. For me aged 20 at the time, the winter of 09/10 was by far the snowiest and most persistently cold winter i have experienced in my life. I recorded snow on the ground for 30 days consecutively and a peak depth on the 6th Jan of 29cm. For that to be followed by Dec 10 was exceptional, this was a month which saw rivers freeze over (something i'd not experienced) and for much of England the nights were bone chilling. Bar that spell in the middle (sadly) it would have been perfection. Fortunately at nearly 200m asl the snow on nearby fields did make it between the periods for a duration of 25 days on the ground and a peak depth of 23cm.
  4. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    16.4C for me. Although it looks like July will finish a little above average i am hopeful that August will be the month to break the mold. Not least when one considers that normally the second half of the month is noticeably worse than the first.
  5. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Now at 50 for the year At current pace we are looking around 90 for the year. 2006 had 70 and 2007 had 152 so it looks like we are tracking between the two.
  6. I'd be wary of the long range Met Office thoughts because i imagine they are based largely on the Euro ensemble suit and your always going to see a reversion to the mean (i.e. the longer the model goes out, the more likely it is to want a more N/S average scenario).
  7. As giddy as some are getting at the prospect of 25C in the south east it's worth saying that the models continue to be very unsettled and that if we don't get a sufficient pressure build then all a trough orientating SW-NE will do is pep up the rainfall intensity. Still, for those of us who prefer our heat early the outlook is pretty good.
  8. Can't really predict the effect of hurricanes because where they form and how strong they are differ so much.
  9. GFS is no better..
  10. I'd not include 2014 for heat lovers because of the August but 2013 saw a nice to good June and August with an exceptional July that was every bit as good as many of the hottest months you remember (no rain for 3 weeks, sunny, hot).
  11. It's simply not going to happen this year for proper heat lovers in my opinion. The GFS is trying to push some westerlies in the tropics (good for us) but you can see that heat lovers have been screwed by a significant trade wind burst near the date line which has overpowered the said positive sign. With no real sign that the easterlies will abate, i suspect that a N/S split is as good as it gets. Of course that's not a bad thing for me since as we enter August i switch to wanting a cooler and more unsettled pattern.
  12. All i can say is thank goodness. The Euro is thankfully relatively unsettled and relatively cool and much like late June/early July.
  13. Autumn thoughts

    In terms of Autumn it's probably worth saying that the teleconnection with the highest amplitude (and therefore potentially largest effect) may be the -QBO which is strengthening in the lower stratosphere rather rapidly. With the PDO and ENSO pattern somewhat neutral/weakly warm it's interesting to ponder what a strong -QBO signal means. Looking at Q4 periods with a -QBO that was strengthening and at least month with a -1 deviation since 1980.. 2014 2009 2005 (peaked in Q4) Not a large sample since i imposed a few restrictions but at any rate 05 and 09 are not bad solar matches and 05 and 14 are not bad ENSO matches too. Strong blocking signal with the trough near the UK moving progressively east over the period (blocking signal is strongest in Oct and Dec). September sees a polar opposite with a strong Azores Ridge over the UK and raging +AO, so probably quite warm.
  14. I'm a little wary of this list living in Huddersfield myself, especially when you places like York as pretty dry and i think statistically Leeds is drier too. It's possible this is genuine and i'm just not noticing all those extra showers from westerlies or the enhanced rainfall rates but i'm more wary about how this was calculated. If for example they are basing this from Emley Moor then that is the better part of 200m above sea level anyway.
  15. It's one part bad luck and one part over-optimism if you ask me. We did get the response in the tropics (the red near the left is a burst of westerlies near Indonesia) that led to some calling for much better fortunes.. but you can also see that like an elastic band there is a strong easterly surge (the blue) which means that our window is shorter and that the Nina like imprint that has held back this summer, may return. This summer reminds me all the more of 2010, perhaps the August will too.
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