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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on August 22 2018

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Looking at the 0z runs today and only a small amount of progress has been made with regards to the cut off low causing confusion. So the movement today has essentially been from the GFS and Euro (not GEM - that keeps the status quo) to shift the upper low east of the Azores which is different to a few days ago. What happens afterwards is essentially one of three solutions which we currently have no consensus on.. 1) As per GFS0z if the upper low gets picked up east of the Azores then it just strengthens the low while it's near western Europe. 2) As per Euro if the upper low sta
  2. So we did end up with the warmest opening third since 1982, the warmest first half since 2004 and the warmest first two thirds since 1970. Current models would suggest a steady drop though towards an unremarkable figure.
  3. A very strange and difficult setup coming for the models to resolve. So essentially in a few days we see a trough become cut off west of the Azores which attempts to build an upper ridge above it (hence the northerly solutions) however to complicate matters the models also indicate that a low will become cut-off near the UK. Now on the Euro and GEM this upper lows tracks west and merges (the further west the stronger the retrogression, the further east the more conducive for summer weather) however the GFS never really has that upper low move much (eventually another trough arrives hence
  4. We are looking at about 6C. Biggest I would guess at without looking deeper is 6.8C in March-April 1895 ran close by 1956 and 1963.
  5. Your posts will get moved anyway but a - + - Tripole is alluded to typically a +NAO signal. Albeit it gets a little more complicated because current anomolies push quite far south for example and if it can form a -AMO then that's not a bad thing for a -AO. Moral of the story, don't get excited.
  6. People appear to be a tad too focussed on the what and not the why. First the reason the Euro differs from GEM and GFS is simply because it has a better developed upper low near the U.K. so it hangs about a little more instead of shifting like the GFS/GEM. The key feature that is confusing the models afterwards is an upper trough which becomes cut off west of the Azores at day 5. The initial reaction is that it’s too far west and so we get something of northerly (a strange warm, dull north westerly most likely) however it looks like around day 9 the upper low begins to interact with
  7. Since we are going to be above 16C to the 20th, do we have any recent years that were above the level by then.
  8. Outlook to day 10 a little odd with an upper low generally dominant but not up to much. Out to day 8 this looks like a generally cool setup before pulling some warmer uppers further out.
  9. Looks like the warmest first half since 2004 then. Not sure about opening third which i missed.
  10. 12z models starting to roll out now however looking at the 0z models the outlook to day 9 was pretty dire before divergence albeit the GEM model had a more unified trough.
  11. Due to wavelength changes the UK typically sees an increase in westerlies from mid June despite the lack of a net positive vortex. Suspect it relates to late spring (lots of easterlies and northerlies) seeing stong melt in Siberia and Canada which may promote any residual vortex to be displaced due to the thermal gradiant. When that falls back and the whole hemisphere is warm perhaps Greenland draws it back. (As a mean average of course).
  12. The QBO in summer 2018 was in a mature easterly phase against the backdrop of a Nina to Nino flip. The QBO this summer has just turned negative but is essentially near neutral with upper ocean heat content looking like it may turn negative again. Not comparable even before factoring in the PDO being much more negative this year.
  13. Pleased with the stuff near Exeter and Cardiff, could get further north eventually.
  14. Radar looking better than I expected for this time albeit not so much excitement here.
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