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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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  1. Euro this morning has a somewhat messy break (i suspect dry and cloudy) next Mon-Weds. GFS largely abandons it..
  2. The current setups we are seeing are probably the result of an MJO wave which moved through the western Pacific in late April and was followed by enhanced trades in the Indian Ocean (Nino like). Current output does suggest that we may see trades strengthen in the central Pacific again (Nina like) so look for a potential bout of westerlies into early June should that occur.
  3. Quite a subdued pattern on the horizon.. Out to about 6 and high pressure over the UK should deliver maxima around 20C with more or less clear skies (the good thing the lack of a southerly component should produce cool nights).. After about day 6 both the GFS and Euro do agree on a progressive breakdown but it looks slow so i suspect we'll just see a lot of cloud before the low finally pushes through.
  4. Although Nina does support a stronger than normal sub-tropical high it's definitely not the norm to cool the Atlantic as a result so i suspect what usually happens is that once we get to early summer and everything shifts north, any enhanced trades during winter/early spring also shift and so by August-October the MDR is nice and warm albeit the impact of shear vs SST's is interesting. As i posted in the hurricane season thread the North Tropical Atlantic values are consistent with developing Nino seasons in 2014, 2015, 2012 and 2009 although of course, two of those flopped.
  5. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/NTA_ersst.data This is an interesting index, the North Tropical Atlantic index which essentially tells us how warm the Tropics are. Now looking at this i get the impression that there may be some correlation to hurricane seasons and that both early season values and tendancy are a factor (03 for example came into the season poorly but had a fairly large rise), last year for example came good at the right time. This years value looks similar to similar to 2014, 2015, 2012 and 2009 with Q1 seeing fairly cool values (indeed negative in March) and a negative trend. This should not be a shock given that like the years above the spring saw signs of a developing Nino albeit 2014 and 2012 were essentially flops in that regard. Will be interesting to watch albeit the last SST's do look pretty negative. I would of course remind you that a less active season does not impact quality. 2014 was the best season for quality in years at that point and 2015 had the magnificent beast that was Joaquin. 2014 aside i would not be holding out for a hot summer if that data were correct.
  6. Barely a week, the ensembles even are notably unreliable in the tropics. From a climo point of view October does favour the Carribean/Gulf but storms are more likely to be headed north (so less of an impact for Cuba than say a Gustav 07 track) and also less likely to be cat 4/5 although Wilma shows that's still possible.
  7. GFS with a pretty strange forecast for tropical anomolies. Stronger easterlies around Indonesia but stronger westerlies around the east Pacific.
  8. The current spell of good weather is probably being driven by tropical westerlies which moved across the Pacific over the past month (from the Indian Ocean to around the dateline) and look to largely filter out to neutral. Whether the atmosphere generates another wave or enhances the trades (as happened last summer) will to some degree be a good guide of what to expect this summer in terms of amplication vs a zonal pattern.
  9. Since 1997 the only other years which have achieved an NAO value of +1 or greater for the first half of May are 09 and 15, neither was stunning for the summer.
  10. As much as the current spell will bring back memories of 2003 and 2006, both of which had a pretty warm May.. 2008 and 2012 also had notably warm spells.
  11. Apparently a leading Labourite suggested that the royal birth was a plot to distract attention from the government.

    Once again, the party appears to be a literal walking meme.

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. Nick L

      Nick L

      Indeed. Key word here being "apparently".

    3. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      What's all this Abbot....

    4. lassie23

      lassie23

      abbott and costello

  12. Outlook improves a little at day 8 with some transient ridging however the pattern generally is cyclonic and not especially warm.
  13. Tri-monthlies will probably make F-M-A the last Nina month however on the weeklies Nina has ended in 3.4. Nina 1.2 however is still roaring away thanks to persistent trades and looks to be the coldest April in 1.2 for 20 years. March PDO was also negative. Although we may get to weak, i stand by my belief that this Nino will flop for the most part.
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