Jump to content

summer blizzard

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


summer blizzard last won the day on August 22

summer blizzard had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

5,214 Exceptional


Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

Recent Profile Visitors

24,829 profile views
  1. Euro is more settled however the GFS from day 9 through 16 is highly unsettled.
  2. Seasonal models are generally useless.
  3. Gavin is forecasting a CET of 13.7C so below the 1981-2010 average.
  4. System may develop near the Azores in around 5 days. Keep note as this will influence our own weather, forecast to drift west in no mans land.
  5. Stick me at 10.7C, bang on the 30 year average. Although i do not enter the precipitation forecast i expect an extremely wet month with 100mm+.
  6. Can't speak for the south but GFS is actually cold here fri-tues with average maxima of 12c and average minima of 7c. That one crept up on us quietly.
  7. I did think the Atlantic SST profile might produce a stonking thermal gradient this year but i muat admit its all a month earlier than i thought. Beauty of a September storm.
  8. In theory this minimum should be as deep as any in recorded record.
  9. My data backs him up. I looked at the CET for winter in top 20 spotless years (that includes 2007 - we are headed for about 15th this year) and the chances of sub 3.6, 3.4 CET in Dec and Jan are 55% and 40% respectively set against 5.6, 5.4 chances of just 20% and 15% (1C above or below the 1981-2010 average). Now my list does not include the winters of 2011 or 1963 i should add. The years in question are below.. 1855 1856 1867 1876 1878 1879 1889 1890 1901 1902 1911 1912 1913 1923 1933 1954 1996 2007 2008 2009 Interestingly if we do hit 200 sunless days then we actually push 2007 in 20th out of the list and cool the series a little more.
  10. After two days of rising making me think we had hit minimum on the 11th, sea ice has fallen the past two days.
  11. summer blizzard

    Autumn 2018

    Although i do not disagree with what they show i would remember that seasonal models are generally poor. Rarely do they repeat any success year on year suggesting poor skill.
  12. summer blizzard

    Hurricane Florence

    ACE is higher than 2013-15 (more on par with 06-07) but yes, still below average.
  13. summer blizzard

    Hurricane Isaac

    You can see Issac well in the image below. Low level center is clear but little convection to the west with everything being blown off east due to shear and speed (21mph). You can also see how large Florence's flow is. For this morning the GFS kills it within 4 days, Euro has it hang on and hit as a Hurricane in Texas.
  14. summer blizzard

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    At 4625 we just dipped under last year.
  15. Certainly the most unsettled 0z GFS for a while. From days 6-16 we get low after low.