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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on August 22 2018

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Best/Worst Q1: 2010/2014 Q2: 2018/2019 Q3: 2017/2016 Q4: 2010/2015 Jan: 2010/2014 Feb: 2018/2014 Mar: 2012/2019 Apr: 2011/2012 May: 2018/N/A Jun: 2018/2019 Jul: 2013/2010 Aug: 2017/2016 Sep: 2017/2016 Oct: 2016/2011 Nov: 2010/2015 Dec: 2010/2015
  2. On the solar point there may only be a weak winter link overall but the signal for top 20 and top 10 spotless years is quite strong. Looking at the top 10 years for example.. December: 20% at 5.6C or above, 50% at 3.6C or below, 30% between January: 50% at 3.4C or below, 50% at 3.5-5.3C (none actually warmer than 4.7C) February: 20% at 5.4C or above, 40% at 3.4C or below, 40% between. Top ten spotless years strongly favour winters close to or below the 1981-2010 average.
  3. There's no real pattern to the timing of it all and there's not always an easy way to tell if we already have a 'kind trop'. In my anecdotal experience there is usually a fairly quick atmospheric 'jolt' which can produce but in many cases we have had to wait a month before a sustained spell followed. In 2018 we had to wait around 2 weeks for the cold spell to arrive and the cool/cold conditions largely sustained until mid-april. In 2016 we had the strange warming/final warming and saw a similar timeframe (March and April remaining cooler than average) while in 2013 we saw an easterly about 2 weeks after but most of February was high pressure dominated and non-descript before another attack from the troposphere finally kicked the trop vortex. But in 2005 and 2012 for example it was the better part of a month before a pattern change occurred, indeed we did not get a massive kick last year albeit it changed the pattern. I guess what it highlights is that you need a quick downwelling to the troposphere to recieve a quick impact and then you need probably a second bout of wave activity to finally kill it. In cases like 05, 12 and 19 the downwelling took a long time and was patchy and thus while there was a response it was not sustained for long. You also have the danger of years like 09 where we were already quids in and the stratospheric warming changed the pattern in a negative way for us.
  4. Q3 and Q4 to date would suggest over 280, 281 is what we need to take third in the all time spotless years.
  5. Yes, as much as a part of me wants to give in and ramp as I used to the model thread during hot and cold spells becomes far too full of confirmation bias with people telling each other what they wish to hear. I much prefer to read a normal thread free of much bias.
  6. The Romania picture is stunning. On the later picture it’s worth saying that it’s the strongest low to hit Oregon and California in about 40 years with 100mph tales and 3 feet of snow.
  7. I’m talking Jan-March CET means. Current analogues suggest means of 3.3, 3.9 and 4.8. 37.5% chance of a Jan SSW between 4th-18th Jan. Some may not like protracted cool to cold weather especially since October and November have lacked many mild spells but that suggests a good chance of snow in Jan and March. If I had to punt I would focus on the 10th-30th Jan and 20th Feb-20th March as the two coldest periods of the winter.
  8. Reading this thread in recent days the despondent feeling is amusing and indicative of some not allowing their earlier thoughts to remain measured. I have been saying for some months that I don’t expect a change to cold until Mid-January and I still remain somewhat confident.
  9. 4.6C. A relatively wet and westerly month of the more normal n-s variety (trop-strat coupling looks like occurring). High pressure should build over the UK for the final third of the month.
  10. All three Autumn months above 100m then and two above 150mm.
  11. Looks like we will now avoid taking second in the all time spotless list but we remain on course to finish third.
  12. Gavin in the other realm is estimating 6.33C as the closing value.
  13. I'm pretty suprised at that. I was in Morley for winter 2010 (so other side of the Pennines) at around 150-200m but i had snow on the ground for 30 days with a maximum depth of 29cm (both records for my lifetime). I'm surprised the west of the Pennines struggled (perhaps more sun). And remarkably still not at all what i would consider stormy. The remarkable lack of warmth since early October has been stark round these parts. Minima have been nothing special (probably beaten in 2016 and even last year) but i don't ever recall a November where we are half way through and have not hit a 10C maxima yet (so far as i know). It reminds of me of winter 06 which while not notable for cold was notable for just how long we avoided any real warmth.
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