summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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About summer blizzard

  • Birthday 06/02/89

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. I'm just curious as to what impact the trades strengthening over the Pacific will have and what will happen if the current MJO wave lacks the strength to push those aside.
  2. CFS has all but abandoned Nino.
  3. Well, with a few lows zipping across the south it looks like the drought concerns should ease..
  4. Ha. Just in time for summer. Personally i see our current move to weak Nino as more residual due to the lack of Nina rather than ocean driven like 2015 so it is my belief that it's the type of event that could suddenly collapse were the sub-surface to move against us. That said, i don't see a threat right now and so would take those trade surges as intermittent.
  5. Solar activity this year is going to be between the level of 2010 and 2007 (08 and 09 were completely dead), we have an atmospheric weak Nino (i say atmospheric because i think it's more down to the lack of a Nina rather than a massive ocean driven event in 2015) and if we can end up with a -QBO by winter then actually things would be pretty good looking i think.
  6. Euro could produce several hours of heavy rainfall as well.
  7. Sadly i forgot to actually post a prediction (was leaving it late in the month) but would have gone for the 1981-2010 average at 11.7C. Unlike last year which turned the heat up as we came into May it looks to me as if modelling wants to keep high pressure west of the UK bar early next week so actually those who went close to average will probably be happy.
  8. I hope to live to 100 myself when i can be cryogenically frozen until such time they can cure aging. I suppose though that if i could die on another planet (outside our solar system) i would consider that a sufficiently breathtaking achievement that i'd be happy to accept death.
  9. 8.5C. I go by the 1981-2010 average.
  10. I hesitate to say it but current operationals do give us a real chance of a below average month. Euro would have the CET in the mid to high 8C's by day 10 and from there the 0z GFS was pretty awful for warmth. Below 8C is probably asking too much but below 8.5C a real possibility.
  11. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2016_merra2.pdf Slow progress on the QBO but the final warming has occured.
  12. I don't buy the super Nino talk. The evolution of most large Nino's sees warm water move west to east at the sub-surface then slosh back at the surface (2015 being a classic example). This one sees persistent trades in the central pacific and weak oceanic heat content anomalies. Nino may win out but i can't see it being more than weak.
  13. Federer wins the Miami Open 6-3, 6-4.