Jump to content

summer blizzard

Members...
  • Content count

    13,953
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

summer blizzard had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

4,572 Exceptional

About summer blizzard

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

Recent Profile Visitors

18,893 profile views
  1. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Sadly it would appear that we will be screwed out of a below average month with a second half that will come in warmer than the first. GFS a tad more progressive in kicking the high away but both the Euro and GFS would see the adjusted figure somewhere near 14.5C.
  2. Hurricane Maria

    Maria's almost at landfall. Outer eyewall is almost completely closed, 18 miles wide.
  3. We have now passed the 150 mark for ACE. Our season is officially 'hyperactive'.
  4. Hurricane Maria is category 5 and and Dominica has just taken the core. Catastrophic damage expected. 

    Next target - Peurto Rico.

  5. Hurricane Maria

    It looks likely to be a direct hit. As it stands, San Juan will likely take the north east quad. Although there are warmer waters around apparently this whole area has the 27C isotherm extending something like 300m deep meaning that you don't get upwelling to any serious degree. The secondary eyewall is nowhere near developed and won't affect Maria until tomorrow. Dominica will take the core in about 90 minutes and i strongly suspect that recon will declare Maria a category 5 before that. The damage Maria will cause, will be catastrophic.
  6. 97L has been declared TD14 and will probably be upgraded to TS Lee later today. It is forecast to get caught by a trough later this week. 96L is the wave in front and also has an 80% chance of development. This wave looks as though it may be able to sit under a high and is the one the models hit the US/Lesser Antilles with. .. I recall some people asserting that we may struggle to develop proper deep tropic canes in the main development region again for a variety of reasons.. it seems this season has answered that in spectacular fashion.
  7. I'd not get too giddy about a cool start. The early winters of 2005 and 2011 were substantially different for example.
  8. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    It certainly does look like we could see an appreciably below average month (at least 1C below the 1981-2010 average) if we see a pattern like this in the final third of the month. Personally i love it. After many mild and dull September's we finally have one which feels like proper Autumn. Cool and windy, reminding you of winter to come.
  9. Autumn thoughts

    A lot of trees now turning and dropping leaves round here. Looks lovely though me thinking its early is probably more a reflection that they've seen no real heat since July and we finally have a seasonal September. I do hope we get a cold and sunny October though. Last year produced wonderous colours.
  10. Hurricane Jose

    Looks like a fish or Nova Scotia hit however the UKMO and its ensembles are still adamant of the Florida hit.
  11. The build of pressure to the east appears to be the lagged result of a surge of westerlies around Indonesia recently. Unfortunately for those hoping it will yield fruit later in the month i strongly suspect that a cooler, more westerly pattern will return based on the fact that we are about to see an exceptionally strong surge of easterlies in the Pacific.
  12. The gulf between models is nothing new, in 2014 the NOAA judged that the UKMO model had performed best that hurricane season and in 2015 and 2016 the Euro rained supreme. It seems then that in the tropics the GFS has been behind the curve for some years. The scenarios where the GFS appears to be more accurate anecdotally are in the northern hemisphere winter and more especially, zonal patterns (it seems to have a good grip on the dynamics of the various barlonic lows).
  13. In terms of ACE 2011, 2012 and 2016 were all comfortably average about the same level (2010 the last to be close to hyperactive).
  14. I suspect the correlation is pretty weak but there is evidence that seasons with high ACE totals increase the amount of Ozone and encourage stratospheric warmings. At any rate this season is certain to be declared a hyperactive ACE season given that we are above the seasonal average already.
×