summer blizzard

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About summer blizzard

  • Birthday 06/02/89

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. What day did it last rain on?
  2. With regards to the northerly shown by the Euro and GFS it's probably worth saying that pressure looks relatively high (the bulk of the action is too far east) so that and the wishbone effect will probably prevent anybody outside north eastern Scotland from getting any snow out of it. That said, we should get frosts and it will feel absolutely freezing with a very cold, dry airmass.
  3. The winters of 09 and 11 both saw +QBO and both went for it early so one cannot draw the conclusion that we should all leave the forum for the winter purely on that basis.
  4. Allowing for lag before the troposphere fully responds, that could suggest one hell of a response as we head into mid-November.
  5. SAI index running at second highest level to date.
  6. Which date holds the record for the first ice day. Also, does Nov 10 hold the date records for the last week.
  7. With regards to false dawns do we have any data for 2002. I seem to recall that we saw a lot of northern blocking that Autumn which came to nothing come winter.
  8. While some people over the years have been critical of the points system i've always been a fan and think that comparing relative performance season to season is a good metric. It does at time amplify too much (Djokovic led by ~8000 points last year) but for the most part its good. My own thoughts on Murray were that he may win the US and Australian Opens but never Wimbledon or the French and that he may become world number 1 as the power vacuum develops so he's actually done a little better than i thought. Perhaps he could grab it.
  9. Rapid snow gain south of 60N in October is correlated with a -AO in winter.
  10. The GFS at day 11 shows us how we're just 6 weeks too early.. Uppers for inland areas like me less than 5C too high.
  11. I think people forget that day 10 verification right down to about 7 is still less than 0.5. We're still not advanced enough that we can guarantee the weather that far out. I agree that the winds are SE there (though the SW would still risk an onshore flow pushing up the dew point but it's worth noting that the uppers are not the be all and end all in terms of snow. In the midlands for example a SE wind is very important for snowfall quite often because it indicates that cold surface air is undercutting the occluded front even when a look at the ordinary chart may show a southerly wind. That situation come December would be a classic M4 event i feel with snow anywhere between there and Birmingham.
  12. The GFS model can be incredible at times. At day 10 we have a well formed surface cold pool over Europe.. At day 15 we have a completely dead Atlantic with no sub-1000mb low and a northerly..
  13. I thought cat 4 was 135mph or did i miss an advisory.
  14. At the strength we are at i'm not too concerned about west/east based since it's not going to dominate the global pattern and indeed weak Nina generally is good for us in terms of the analysis i did (high to the north, low to the south). My biggest concern right now (putting the QBO aside) is that we are looking at a neutral PDO at best and a not very +EPO.
  15. I find it interesting that the GFS does very little to remove the surface cold pool to our north east even a week or so from today.. And of course the GFS produces a pretty frigid northerly to end the month (probably some snow showers for Aberdeen)..