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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Only three 19C months have occurred and all since 1983. The link to solar activity is relatively weak (July 2013 for example was near the peak of our cycle).
  2. 06 was about on par with 16/17. Near the start of a minima. 95 was about on par with 16/17 since the 96 minima was not all that deep (there's a not unreasonable chance that 2018 beats 1996). 83 was not close to a minimum and the minimum of solar cycle 21 (1986) was so poor that it is not in the top 25 years for spotless days. .. I see what you are getting at but 2018 has more in common with 07/08 in terms of solar activity (we are running between the two to date) than any of the other years albeit 06 and 95 were similar (mainly because the minimum of 96 was pretty weak).
  3. Looks to me like we are in limbo but with a lean towards abnormally weak Atlantic due to +GLAAM due to the Pacific pattern. You see here that strong westerlies in the Pacific during April and then followed by an even stronger event during May (this event went through the entire Pacific) created a strongly displaced mid-lattitude high signal. This tropical forcing however has now abated with a fairly benign picture forecast.. Although the background pattern is one of positive GLAAM as Tamara has pointed out (hence why her thoughts are for the trough to remain west and produce a ridge to the east) that is ultimately just a holding in my opinion (though it may hold a good two weeks given that the trade burst only really put the Atlantic in control for a week). If we see a new westerly wind burst push through the Pacific as per April and May/June then it's likely the ridge over Scandinavia will retrogress and we may well see an August to challenge 47 or 95, if however we see another trade burst without much fight to it's west then the holding pattern is probably weak enough that the Atlantic wins and we start running down the clock on summer 18. .. Tonight's GFS18z is messy and humid. The low just sits off Scotland doing enough to keep the plume east but not enough to push the warm air away. A recipe for showers and humidity. Euro at least was quite a bit cleaner..
  4. Regarding the prospect of records being broken it's unlikely from this plume. Although the dry ground does increase lapse rates one has to bear in mind that the flow is relatively cyclonic with pressure values sub-1015mb and uppers below 20C. If we squeeze out a 35/36C we've done well (not that i want such heat). If you look at the last two times we had proper spells that then broke the records then we have 3rd August 1990 (37.1C) and 10th August 2003 (38.5C). Aug 03 had uppers of 20/21C and pressure around 1018mb.. Aug 90 had uppers of only 17C but pressure around 1023mb..
  5. With the recent change in the models to keep the heat it is now all but confirmed (we needed 18.7C) that we have had the hottest May-July period on record. Likely to come third for the hottest June-July post corrections (need to match July 06 at 19.7C post corrections to beat 1976, 19.6 beats 2006 to second).
  6. Given that there have only been three 19C+ summer months i don't think we can really state how far apart they should be. They are a product of global warming, man made or not. Since 1950 however we do know that 18C summer months occur once every 7 years on average though so we are about on point (indeed it was actually the 94-97 and 03-06 periods which were anomolies (2013 was 7 years after 06 and we are 5 years after 2013 so more or less normal).
  7. summer blizzard

    Tour De France 2018

    Froome in second behind his teammate.
  8. GFS can indeed go in the bin since it's 10-20mb deeper than any other run but the pattern remains the same from the last few operationals. Namely that low pressure west of Ireland pushes everything east within 24 hours or less.
  9. A warm week but it looks like the Euro and GFS both more or less agree on no major plume except for a one day affair for Euro. Outlook afterwards is still warm but more of a standard affair.
  10. summer blizzard

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Have booked two weeks off work from Sunday so although i would prefer a collapse in our summer weather, it's still preferable to being in what is essentially a large metal box at work. I can at least drink copious amounts of coffee.
  11. summer blizzard

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Not so much decaying, its just weaker on its southern side. Lancaster-York north should get a good few hours. We look to just get an hour of modest rain at most. Hopefully it feels fresher afterward though.
  12. That's very possible and the 0z GFS did show what you suggest however the default pattern may be a little different now given that from mid-April to mid-June we had two very large waves cross the Tropical Pacific, that forcing now no longer exists (we have an MJO forecast to die and residual high GLAAM). That's not to say you are not correct, the default pattern of this summer may simply be too good. At any rate, 6z produces a cold outlier most likely. Cold front has moved through by day 8.
  13. summer blizzard

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    A nice N-S contrast.
  14. Although it does sadly appear that we get somewhat of a plume next weekend it thankfully (bar occasional runs) looks to have been watered down a bit. We now get quite a cyclonic flow lasting 2-3 days at most (though beforehand it will still be very warm for most of next week). The plus i suppose is that by being fairly cyclonic we still have a chance at a more permanent ending. Small progress for those of who are done with summer in the long run but another very warm week (and likely humid towards the weekend) to come.
  15. It's the horse shoe effect. Extremely low GLAAM as you see with a -PDO/-ENSO can also at times contribute to low Atlantic SST's. In our case we saw an extremely positive NAO period (not uncommon in Nina events) which cooled the tropical Atlantic during the spring.