Jump to content

summer blizzard

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


summer blizzard last won the day on August 22 2018

summer blizzard had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

5,714 Exceptional


Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

Recent Profile Visitors

26,063 profile views
  1. 7.6C, 1C above the 1981-2010 average. Given that we have a static wave in the Pacific and and above average zonal winds i suspect that March will tend to see mid to high lattitude blocking (suggesting a dry month) but mainly over or to the east of us. I suspect we will retrogress to a cooler and perhaps wetter pattern late in the month but by then i think the CET will be high enough to render that a non-issue.
  2. The day 6-10 charts from the Euro tonight are exceptional.
  3. PDO has actually been close to neutral this winter. Not to blame in my opinion. Top 20 spotless years have a good bias towards colder than average Decembers and January's following. We were unlucky this year in that regard.
  4. Unfortunately the MJO is not much good as a composite right now because if you check out the zonal wind anomoly chart i sometimes post you can see that the wave is standing rather than progressing which is why it is circling inside phase 8 on yours. Instead of progression from 7-8 retogressing ect.. we just have the amplification (in the wrong place). We may see it edge over time but the wave may need to die (return to the circle) first. It does suggest this could carry on a while.
  5. summer blizzard

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    The sun strong enough to feel and a breeze strong enough to chill. Bird song and cloudless skies. The weather today is absolutely divine.
  6. I think that somebody needs to ask the real question.. when is it too early to whip out the bbq and head for the beer garden.
  7. Another stonking set of model runs for early spring (RIP winter) with the GEM even getting a patch of 10C upper air to the UK (probably won't happen). We may have some low hanging maxima fruit to contend with but it's unlikely with such high pressure values that we will be challenging too many records since the sun is still weak and minima should be relatively low (like March 12 we may see maxima averaging 3-4C above, but minima more or less average). If there is something to go after, it may be the warmest second halves of Feb. Duration is what interests me, there is a standing Pacific wave (from GFS forecasts) which until it moves may suggest the pattern won't try move much either.
  8. summer blizzard

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    The output tonight for the time of year especially is fairly spectacular. High pressure values may prevent us recording daily record values as minima may drop but with warm air aloft (5C+) we may be looking at some high maxima away from coasts. A month too soon but with a stagnant Pacific wave not likely to move the pattern anytime soon i was wondering if Weather History or Rodger could post the record maxima for 20th Feb-10th March. Although i could be wrong i think this has the hallmark of a persistent March 12, April 07 pattern in which we may keep the high a few weeks (amazingly the Euro at day 10 is even pluming at both the surface and higher atmosphere albeit uppers not too high).
  9. Oh boy.. if that 12z Euro were just one month later then days 8-10 could only be described as spectacular.
  10. summer blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    I actually have been thinking the same. Although we could see Azores dominance or just a turn to westerlies i do think that when we get close to the final warming with such a persistant high likely to be nearby, we are likely to see some form of retrogression and so probably a poor April. May's are usually like September and a bit forgetable though i do think Nino May's tend to anecdotally see more heat.
  11. Looking at the output it is notable that the high is forecast to strengthen near the UK as the Euro progresses, this high could persist for some time. It is also a shame this is not happening a month later. The current output could rival the likes of 03 and 12.
  12. summer blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    It will be interesting to see if the AMO is entering a more negative phase too given that it has tended to rebound once Nino events end rather than stay negative. This. Were it not for the abysmal lack of snow (largely because northerlies and north westerlies been more dominant) this would not be near the bottom of the pile. 2013/2014 was no winter, it was a hellish endless Autumn which failed to produce any lying snow at all.
  13. I personally think that the PDO state is too ignored here. There is a reasonable decadal correlation to the winter AO. Right now we have a surfacing cold pool but also a warm pool so unknown. Check again in 6 months.
  14. summer blizzard

    Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    Cannot see it personally. 18C summer months almost always occur in a developing Nino state. We are likely headed for neutral or Nina as things stand. It may not be bad (96, 14), but I doubt we see a classic.
  15. summer blizzard

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    If you take a quarterly look at things then i believe Q4 was still deeper than Q3 and even this quarter to date we have seen persistent rather than numerous annoyances.