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summer blizzard

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  1. Models are fairly consistent that it will recurve and be no threat to land bar Bermuda.
  2. The globals did suggest good if not strong intensification to be fair and have done so for days (well, i have not checked in the past 36 hours).
  3. 97L now at 80%, expected to be a long tracking Fish but may be a threat to Bermuda. These storms tend to do well for strength.
  4. Win regards to Rodger the second half of Jan 2012 was still mild at 5.0C however you are correct that a cold spell is hidden, 29th Jan-12th Feb averaged -0.6C.
  5. I’m only a fan of neutral if moving towards weak Nino. A neutral event trending south will tend not to support significant tropical forcing which in the face of a positive PDO is not something I think will be of benefit. I would tend to say the effect of the Atlantic is minimal and probably more relevant over Europe than the UK anyway although it is nominally supportive.
  6. Its probably worth saying that we wont have a -QBO this winter, some folk were too excited. When you look at prior decay rates we are looking at neutral with spring and summer seeing the flip. Fortunately if we look at the data then neutral standardised values have a good SSW hit rate. But yeah, i am with those who view the neutral ENSO and +PDO as unfavourable.
  7. I would go 10.2C for October, I think that it will be relatively cool and wet. I think the Nov-Jan period will be largely mild but vary between zonal and blocked near the UK as I don’t think the AO will be as persistently positive as some early winters (though I expect attempts at blocking to largely fail). Predictions of 7.6C, 5.1C and 4.9C. I do think Feb-March will be largely cooler, drier and snowier than average.
  8. Pretty awful forecast, it's a good thing that i don't really put much stock in seasonal model forecasts.
  9. The winter of 2006 is one which is remembered fondly by many. Extremely sunny, very dry and very frosty/foggy although we narrowly missed out on the true cold that hit Europe in late Jan.
  10. For our winter nothing. In the shorter term it cools the tropics and amplifies the MJO in theory.
  11. We had people saying this earlier in the year when activity picked up. Until solar flux is sustained over a quarter I would ignore any rash conclusions.
  12. The AO is confirmed as being negative for the fifth month in a row during August. Comparable years are 2008, 2004, 1993 and 1958.
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