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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on August 22 2018

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. I noticed GFS has been showing storms for F1 on Sunday, what are the chances from you guys.
  2. Euro joins GFS in dumping the heat for Wednesday. I would say that Saturday and Sunday look most likely to overperform if any. Higher pressure but 15c+ uppers may allow for higher lapse rates. Thankfully here in the north it's hot but nothing special, very much a southern hot spell for the most part.
  3. Even when it killed the heat on Saturday for most parts (something still modelled actually north of the Midlands) the heat swung back in until Thursday so we are gradually making progress albeit at this range not much more likely (and it does appear the GFS operational is a cool run relative to the ensemble mean).
  4. GFS12z a tad more progressive than yesterday in that while still warm next Wednesday, the real heat has gone. Slowly but surely the fiery hell of a few days ago has been squeezed (Fri-Tues now).
  5. July shear values were the second lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic so yes, it's pretty likely.
  6. The good news assuming no upgrades is that both the Euro and the GFS bin the heat by Wednesday so we only have 6 days to deal with (Fri-Weds), all they are really arguing about is the degree within that time period. The general trend is also for vorcity to increase so more chance of storms from Monday especially.
  7. Doing some quick maths unless I'm ignoring a year then we need 15.8C to jump 2007, 16.3C to jump 2017 and 16.5C to jump 2014 for August so there's a decent chance of a brief first place.
  8. Eye just about showing on both radar and satellite so it will hit as a hurricane. Looking a bit more sub-tropical as it's been caught in a shearing southerly flow and is being barlonically enhanced by the jet streak to its north. That enhancement means strong wind gusts though we'll away from the center.
  9. The upside at least is that pressure is pretty high over the weekend so humidity should be lower. The easterly off the sea should also make it feel cooler away from the south so probably only Tuesday will feel really bad on the Euro here. Also more storm chances monday-wednesday as pressure falls a bit.
  10. August is the first month that can really produce a much cooler second half when it wants to and the long range signals are a bit more marginal than some suggest. I'm probably too low but I don't think 17c+ is nailed on.
  11. Horrid although all producing fairly weak stuff so I think this is just a twin spot and hopefully the southern one goes.
  12. Oh I remember Aug 06 well, I also remember the running CET being quite high for a while.
  13. Fair enough, like the others my memory did not have that in mind. That said i do recall early August in 06 having quite a high CET despite the fact i can't actually remember any real heat. I guess 18.1 and 18.5 are the targets then.
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