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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Very good Euro run. To answer the query of those concerned in the later stage it looks to me as if the reason for the pressure fall is that the low at day 6-8 becomes negatively tilted but too slowly to prevent the core of the heights being sunk and absorbed into the Azores. At day 10 though it does look like enough of the ridge made it north (and heights are sufficiently strong to our north east) that the low would probably make it through south enough to just reinforce the northerly.
  2. While waiting for my takeaway i decided to look at the top 25 spotless years for sunspots (we won't hit that list until next year but it does now look like 2017 will hit triple digits - solar minimum has de facto arrived). Using the 1981-2010 average as a threshold for those winters and defining warm/cold as seeing 1C or more departures here are the winter months we get (more relevant to the next two winters than this one).. Warm: 18 (24%) Average: 26 (34.7%) Cold: 30 (40%) Essentially the number of warm months is as you would likely expect how the likelyhood of a cold month increases significantly.
  3. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Indeed. I thought we were only looking to beat 06 for the first 9 months of the year but we have really dropped. If we can hit triple digits then next year could be special.
  4. Fading memories of 2010

    An amazing statistic. Do you have a top 10 list?
  5. Fading memories of 2010

    Those pictures remind me of my own experience in Jan and Dec 10. Normally a snowfall leaves a bit on the path and road but you can always tell the difference. It was incredibly strange seeing how deep the snow was. Were you south enough to catch the streamer? Here outside of Leeds the thickest snow i measured was in the January, the December ranks second for me (29cm and 23cm respectively). One of the most sureal experiences of those winters was looking at xcweather and seeing stations nearby at like -16C or checking the temp map on there and seeing maxima in Scotland in double digit negatives. The main river in Leeds froze too in late November, i had never seen anything like that before.
  6. All feels a bit like the winter of 09 to me. The trop completely dominated the pattern and we got a cold winter out of an otherwise questionable set of conditions. Of course i could be getting giddy here, there are plenty of day 10 Berlin charts which have not come to fruition. As a data man though i am very encouraged that we will likely see a sub -1 AO value though. There is a significant bias towards cold winter months (cold being 1C below the 1981-2010 average) albeit there were two spoiler winters which were mild.
  7. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    GFS showing snow at ~100m asl Friday night. Will wait for the NMM (other models had the front further south). Also worth saying the GFS has 2C so still a danger of cold rain.
  8. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2017_merra2.pdf A simple look at NASA should tell us not to be concerned about the stratosphere at this stage. We are more or less proceeding at an average pace and actually better positioned now than say the winters of 09 or 13 which saw near record zonal winds headed to their peak. Equally zonal winds in the winter of 06 never really got off the mark and we missed the boat in terms of severe weather for the most part. As things stand we'd expect the stratosphere and troposphere to couple (though as alluded to, it's not hurrying up - probably average pace though) however the hope should be that with a less aggressive background, we may be able to see a weakening of zonal winds in the mid-December to mid-January period.
  9. The jet leaving the US in this case is actually sufficiently weak and well angled that it's not a problem. Our issue is that the polar vortex is too far west and hence we see a west based NAO dragging the base of the trough to our south west and not east. A proper Euro High is rarely due to thermal gradient near the US but rather poor placement of the vortex. A zonal bartlett is normally more the result of enhancing the gradient (though even then it can also be blamed on the +AO).
  10. Models remain pretty similar to last night on the whole.. GFS shows a torch pumping up mild south westerlies from the Tropics. Euro and UKMO do progress the trough east and the Euro looks like the next attempt might have a better chance towards day 10.
  11. Looking at the Euro and GFS there are common themes but they handle the vortex quite differently. So basically after the shortwave drama both models attack the vortex from Russia through days 5 and 10 and both models essentially create a three wave pattern however while both models agree on the core of the vortex energy being over eastern Siberia they have completely different angles at our end. The GFS is essentially a classic west based NAO with a flat southern jet being flung back towards by a trough to our south west. The Euro on the other hand has a jet aimed NE but at day 9 the low is negatively tilted and headed east.
  12. Probably worth saying that it's likely to peak in November or January (based on the next MJO wave being due in December) so although this weekly value is a shock (lowest since 2011 in 3.4?) it's not guaranteed to be a monthly value and the weather is not so fickle that it responds on a whim.
  13. With the next MJO wave not due to try and penetrate until December we could see November producing the strongest values of this Nina if not January. With the massive drop in 3.4 it looks as though those sub-surface anomolies are now crushing all opposition with a background of strong trades in the region.
  14. The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 -0.3ºC Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC Niño 3 -1.2ºC Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC.
  15. It's truly amazing how depressed some people appear to be in the model thread given that at the half way point of November we are dry and cool/cold for the next week at least and even out to day we have stonking Greenland Heights. Although there's always a danger of La Nina winters flattering to deceive (i.e. the jet shows up in winter proper) i tend to think that playing the long game is the best bet for us. The longer we keep heights to the north, the more likely it is that we eventually get a period of amplifications that delivers properly for us.