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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on September 17 2015

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    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Monday evening through Thursday still looking fantastic. Its real folks, get the rulers prepared and your seat in position for lamppost watch.
  2. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Radar watching will start Monday for me. GFS shows constant snow Wednesday-Friday but it will be less sensitive to showers and the air becomes cold enough Monday to see instability. Jan and Dec 10 and Jan 13 produced 29cm, 23cm and 16cm (pre final snowfall for 2013) respectively. Those are the totals to aim for.
  3. That's because it has not approached from the south. As per the day 8 uppers you can see that a cold front is moving south, what happens essentially is that a new low forms as this happens and the front stalls and wraps round. It is as somebody said a lot like 5th Jan 10 which gave me my single largest snow event, 21cm.
  4. Now that we appear to have nailed down the cold spell it's time to think of snow. Firstly the proper cold arrives Sunday/Monday but in terms of snow pressure is on the high side so we are reliant on uppers to generate convection. In terms of snow prospects tonights Euro suggests that Monday-Wednesday will see the greatest snow prospects and tuesday-wednesday especially look spectacular for anybody east of the Pennines, East Midlands and South East. I dare say that if the output for Tuesday-Wednesday on the Euro remained the same then the totals for the likes of Surrey and South Yorkshire could be spectacular if we get a streamer.
  5. Avery good chance that we the first winter month 1C below average since Feb 13.
  6. 2018 Tennis Thread

    The true GOAT, Roger Federer is once again worls number 1.
  7. 2018 Tennis Thread

    Fed entered Rotterdam as a wildcard. A win tomorrow makes him world number 1 at the age of 36.
  8. Net Weather Gardening Thread

    Have to say that the daffs have come up really quick here this past week even with it feeling cool. I assume its lack of frost and stronger sunshine.
  9. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Yup, snowing suprisingly.
  10. How has the winter being for Canada as a whole?
  11. Although i remain optimistic that the period 20th Feb-10th March will deliver notable cold both the Euro and GFS are this morning illustrating one of the dangers after a SSW, namely that we shake the dice and end up with mid-lattitude blocking for a while. It's more common than people think.. In Jan 13 we got an easterly about a week after the SSW but that lasted all of about 10 days and we spent the next month under a big, fat high (quite a nice month actually). In Feb 10 we got a SSW, saw the cold come back for a month but then spent a lot of march under a mid-lattitude block (the one in March seemed to have no effect at all). Jan 09 was very similar to Feb 13 in that we got an easterly soon after but then spent a good 2-3 weeks under a mid-lattitude high (dull but very mild as i recall). Jan 06 was another good example. In that example we had to wait 3 weeks for a significant pattern change and in the mean time spent a few weeks enjoying the frosty sunshine of a mid-lattitude high. .. I'm certainly not saying that this is our destiny and there are SSW's that have delivered but i'm pointing out that it's not an uncommon solution for the cold spell to be short or come after a period of mid-lattitude blocking. Too many people are giddy and not informed. .. Also notable that while the GFS stalls the MJO in phase 7 (odd) the Euro does as i have been calling for a few weeks and kills it before any real amplification in phase 8 and 1 (La Nina) so we may be looking to phase 2/3 of the next wave.
  12. Does anybody have the phase 2/3 MJO composites for March?
  13. A combination of two factors.. 1) Although zonal winds in the upper stratosphere recovered as expected after the SSW. They remained generally weak closer to the troposphere. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_150_2012_merra2.pdf (That's as low as NASA will let me go) 2) A significant wave event occurred in mid to late Feb which probably caused the surge of heights over the Arctic and since the tropospheric zonal winds were weak, we saw a good push. .. As you'll recall from about Nov 12 though the troposphere was being relatively kind to us anyway so a bit like the winter of 09 or this winter, i think that this was a winter where less of a push was needed.
  14. Thanks.. I wanted to look at the effects on March primarily (though it's notable that a lot of Feb SSW years were not that notable, a lot of Jan ones look better) and when we filter out those part of an El Nino event we get.. 2008 2001 1999 1989 1984 1979 When compared to the 1981-2010 average for March and viewing 1C from average as Average) then those years had a relatively cool bias with 50% of those years near average and 50% below. The range though was actually 7.5C to 4.7C with only two of the six years actually above (hence a weighted mean would probably suggest a CET somewhere in the 5.5-5.9C range.
  15. Like most humans you chose only to remember what you wanted to hear.. like the words 'small chance'. Being on here should have also told you that beyond a week there is no guarantee of anything and large swings can be seen. ... Although i must admit that i was getting on board with the easterly solution it looks like my prior thoughts remain, namely that for anything of substance to occur we probably need the Canadian vortex to shift across to Scandinavia as it looks as though at closer range it puts too much pressure on any block. This may take a bit longer although the Euro attempts this somewhat at day 10. Mildly optimistic but cautious.
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