summer blizzard

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About summer blizzard

  • Birthday 06/02/89

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  • Location
    Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Interests
    climate, astronomy, snooker, tennis, formula 1

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  1. 96L now at 50% for 5 day development.
  2. Peak season in which ~80% of activity occurs is August-October. We already had four tropical storms in June even if July was quiet.
  3. All indications are that this hurricane season will be average to above average.
  4. Looks like a TD to me but perhaps there's no closed circulation..
  5. At their current speeds i don't think either makes it. GFS picks up both but 97L has no spin, 96L currently has cloud tops of -80C and has spin but dies (probably because it never has a proper vortex).
  6. Do you have the years going into the last solar minimum. We could just be in a patch however it would be nice to think that we could start to pile up 20 per every two months. Amazing how different the winters of 2013 and 2014 were.
  7. Pretty sure i saw a meteor at about 00:30 last night. Are we passing through a comet tail?
  8. Am i right in thinking that all these spotless days have occurred since May?
  9. Interesting. Possibly there higher resolution (non public) models are making more of it. I suspect that the two biggest threats to it are it's speed (hard to avoid a tilted vortex) and dry air.
  10. GFS kills it in a few days.
  11. Adding in the fact that we've seen 4 tropical storms so far my forecast is.. 14-16 named storms 6-8 hurricanes 2-4 major hurricanes
  12. Although not abnormally cool or wet i would say that this summer has been abnormally westerly and abnormally homogeneous in the sense that until last week there was nothing we could consider a proper warm spell up here (even transiently, it's unusual in Leeds to go from the 3rd June to 19th July with not a day above 25C). One could probably sumise that the lack of a real warm spell is because this summer has been abnormally mobile but the lack of temperature or precipitation extremes can be explained by this mobility occuring north of the UK.
  13. The easterlies are forecast to surge over the Pacific which should produce a negative GLAAM response towards the 10th-20th August. I'd be very wary.
  14. I'll be making my usual basic anologue forecast for the numbers this week but it would be highly unlikely for a neutral/Nina season to produce anything other than an average to above average August-October.
  15. autumn

    Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.