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A fascinating - and rare - experience here, as near calm winds were replaced in just a few minutes with strong, gusty ones. There are two attachments here - the first is the wind gust graph from the yacht club in Sheerness, the other is the radar from the same time as the winds really picked up - I was expecting fireworks from that more intense line to the west, but was from the relatively innocuous one further east. It's certainly novel, anyway!

raz.org.rain The charts this time back in 2018 were bullish on a cold spell, and we were already in one of course. They were a world away from what we're seeing at the moment.

A "normal" roof should be absolutely fine, despite the creaking and groaning, although the walls shaking isn't particularly fun for you! The thing to listen out for in your case is a dull sort of grinding or clunking noise, as of roof tiles rubbing together... if you hear that, it means your tiles are being lifted, and that's the precursor to them coming off. I'll never forget that grinding noise in 1987, followed by slithering and a crash... thankfully something I've not heard since. I had my verge and ridge tiles rebedded earlier this year, as they'd started to lift in the wind (the mortar having cracked). It's not a glamorous thing, but it helps bring peace of mind. Hopefully it won't be too bad for you! I know others have suggested earplugs, but if you have super-sensitive hearing as I do, all they do is dull the noises somewhat, not eliminate them. And if you're worrying about things flying off, you'll be all tensed up too, which doesn't help.

I live in bungalow with a 1970s loft conversion, in north Kent. It survived the Great Storm of 1987 but put the fear of storms into me for life (I was 8 at the time and honestly thought the roof was going to blow off. We did lose a few slates from the pitched roof beyond the dormer). You don't need to worry really unless you feel the loft conversion itself wobbling with each gust - that happened in 1987 but hasn't happened since. Your roof (I'm assuming flat, like mine) will only lift off if the timbers or decking underneath are rotting, it always sounds much worse than it is. Similarly, if you have any issues with your soffit boards or roof edging, you'll know all about it... and in my case, the guttering's started creaking and banging in high winds, which isn't good. I had two ideas for this weekend: either stay in a hotel near the wolf centre I visit (which probably isn't a good idea, as I'd have to come back in the rush hour on Monday, which is likely to be worse than normal due to disruption), or move my bed into a different room. That's the option I'm going to pick - I'm a very light sleeper and even if things aren't falling down, the various creaks, bangs and groans usually keep me awake!

Something not seen here for six years - convective snow clouds over the North Sea. Takes me back - used to be a regular sight in the 80s and 90s! The second picture is 3 minutes after the first, and five minutes after that there's light snow again... View to the NE, the sea is about half a mile away.

The good news is that unlike the rain earlier, this stuff coming in from the North Sea is pure snow! 3.1, dew -0.4 here, and the fact it's pure (albeit very light) snow is most encouraging.

No marginality at all here - it's just rain! Much warmer than I hoped for, too, just above 5C and with the dewpoint going positive each time it rains. I'm on the Isle of Sheppey, so in prime position for rain from the North Sea... here's hoping it'll turn to snow later as the colder air digs in more and the winds veer ENE'ly.

If it's fun you're after, just look at ptb 15 from 240 onwards - especially the T2Ms over the North Sea! Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Indeed, it wasn't a myth. ECM used to provide data input charts (which you could access even if they weren't the "free chart of the day", if you knew the URL) and they showed a massive reduction in aircraft data from late on the 24th until late on the 26th. There would invariably be a reduction in accuracy on all models showing up in the verification charts a few days later. The sort of reduction we're talking about, FWIW, was something like 240,000 aircraft obs going down to 80,000 or so each 6 hours. In recent years it's been much less noticeable as there has been a marked increase in satellite data at all levels. It seems that's enough to overcome the loss of aircraft data which, of course, still goes on over Christmas each year. EDIT: Forgot to mention, the most common side effect of the data loss was the sudden appearance, from the 6z Christmas run, of implausibly good blocked charts for us! That usually lasted a few runs, then gradually went back to normal. It was after a run of such Christmas wonderland charts that I started to look into what was going on... must have been over 10 years ago now. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4978355

Indeed, it wasn't a myth. ECM used to provide data input charts (which you could access even if they weren't the "free chart of the day", if you knew the URL) and they showed a massive reduction in aircraft data from late on the 24th until late on the 26th. There would invariably be a reduction in accuracy on all models showing up in the verification charts a few days later. The sort of reduction we're talking about, FWIW, was something like 240,000 aircraft obs going down to 80,000 or so each 6 hours. In recent years it's been much less noticeable as there has been a marked increase in satellite data at all levels. It seems that's enough to overcome the loss of aircraft data which, of course, still goes on over Christmas each year. EDIT: Forgot to mention, the most common side effect of the data loss was the sudden appearance, from the 6z Christmas run, of implausibly good blocked charts for us! That usually lasted a few runs, then gradually went back to normal. It was after a run of such Christmas wonderland charts that I started to look into what was going on... must have been over 10 years ago now.

Um, yes it is. Bear in mind I've lived here for 40 years and I've been looking at the charts since the 90s (were you around when MRF meant "misleading rubbishy forecast", I wonder?) To get ice days here, with 850s warmer than -12C or so, you need either several inches of snow on the ground OR a prolonged cold spell, whereby still, frosty weather can do it (it gets much harder by February, though, you need the sun to be weak). Failing that, the "brute force" method will do it, as we saw in 1987, 1991, and most recently in 2018. All of those delivered subzero maxima here and all had 850s well into double negative digits. (2018 was record-breakingly cold for the time of year, reaching -15C at 850). Again, if you're further inland you can get away with higher 850s, but here near the coast you need a hell of a lot to overcome the modification to the lower layers caused by the sea... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4961319

Heh, thank you - yes, I usually post over on TWO but from time to time I dip in here! You're right, of course, in that it's very hard indeed to get ice days here. It wasn't so much in the 80s and 90s, but those of course had far more easterly episodes - and they usually came with a spell of negative double-digit 850s. It's a coastal thing, and indeed even 10 miles inland it can be quite different (depending on how quickly that sea-warmed layer gets mixed out).

Um, yes it is. Bear in mind I've lived here for 40 years and I've been looking at the charts since the 90s (were you around when MRF meant "misleading rubbishy forecast", I wonder?) To get ice days here, with 850s warmer than -12C or so, you need either several inches of snow on the ground OR a prolonged cold spell, whereby still, frosty weather can do it (it gets much harder by February, though, you need the sun to be weak). Failing that, the "brute force" method will do it, as we saw in 1987, 1991, and most recently in 2018. All of those delivered subzero maxima here and all had 850s well into double negative digits. (2018 was record-breakingly cold for the time of year, reaching -15C at 850). Again, if you're further inland you can get away with higher 850s, but here near the coast you need a hell of a lot to overcome the modification to the lower layers caused by the sea...

For my part of coastal Kent, I'd be looking for -12s to -15s to get ice days. You can get away with less once cold has been established (and there's snow cover), but at the beginning of a cold spell you'll be looking for negative double-digit 850s in my experience. The further inland you are, the more the injection of warm air from the sea track gets mixed out...

The 15z ICON D2 is out (only takes an hour for the super hi-res variant of the run) - not much changes in terms of track, but speeds are fractionally lower for Kent and Sussex. Still not much fun though if, like me, you live in Kent! WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Météociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine de ICON-D2 0.02° (2.2km env) DWD sur l'est de la France, l'Allemagne, la Belgique, le Luxembourg, les Pays-Bas (Back to lurking now - and back to my usual bolthole of TWO!)

I'd say since 2000 - as that managed to blow the verandah off my shed! The winds seemed stronger then too, but not massively so compared to the 12-1PM period yesterday. Cyclone Oratia - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG (1990 was also a bit blowy, of course, but nothing holds a candle to 1987. I'll never forget that sheer terror I felt as the entire upstairs of my house vibrated in the wind!) As for the lorries, I'm not aware of any blowing over before either... both of those were empty and both blew over on that bridge over the railway line on the Brielle Way. The trees and other damage though (such as a wall being knocked over and cladding ripped of a house in the next road to me) aren't too unusual, as it's been the first time we've had such a blow for over 20 years... there's a lot of ageing / weakened stuff that was primed to break!

For once, just the once, eastern Sheppey was right in the firing line. A good 5-6cm in the space of two hours over lunchtime and the early afternoon. Total snow depth here just outside Leysdown is 10-11cm. This event does now feel very much like the good old days of the 80s, just with higher temperatures and less snow. It's still wonderful to have a proper easterly for once!

Also bang in the middle here and it's been snowing gently for the past half hour (I think earlier on it was all evaporating on the way down!) An icing-sugar dusting on all surfaces as a result, despite it being +0.7C according to the PWS in the garden.

Parts of Swale, anyway - I was working from home today and the 4cm or so of cover hasn't really grown today. In Sittingbourne though, where my workplace is and where I'll be going tomorrow, it seems there's quite a bit more!

Just had a bout of graupel pinging off all surfaces during the (still generally light) snow here. Convection - it's kicking in!

Looks like a front of some sort has gone through here - eastern Sheppey, north Kent coast. My PWS shows a brief rise in pressure, plus a small drop in temperature. No difference in what's coming from the sky, though, still cold rain!

Several miles ESE of Sheerness here and I can confirm there's no problems with precip amounts - it's been raining most of the morning so far.

They're mostly personal weather stations, everything from a dodgy thermometer stuck on the side of a house to pro-grade stations. They will be up to date (my station uploads every minute) but as for accuracy - they should be in the rough area, especially on a windy night time. (On a still summer's day on the other hand...) As xcweather (which uses only pro-grade or official sites) shows, it really is above freezing across most of the UK right now. Wind Map - Britain Observations XCWEATHER.CO.UK

WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide. Plenty of 2s and 3s across Kent there.

No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine. ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for London WEATHER.US London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...