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John Badrick

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Everything posted by John Badrick

  1. Antarctic sea ice reaches new record maximum
  2. http://www.livescience.com/48256-asia-karakoram-glaciers-stability.html Some are expanding!
  3. So you think it's pointless looking at the above during the winter to give us some clues to what our winter may hold??? Trust me we will still be looking at them next winter? There is some kind of connection between the OPI and our winter, but clearly other factors combined will determine the outcome. More research needed, not a complete dismissal!!!
  4. yes but this should not have much of an impact until around the turn of the decade, low solar activity now will have little, or no impact on our weather for the near future, so to get excited about it now is a premature I feel. We can start feeling the impact of low/ deep low solar activity when we are in solar min similar to 2008,09, but hopefully even more if the sun decides to hibernate
  5. Can I ask why you are you pleased solar activity has dropped ?
  6. Another hard frost here this morning. I cant remember the last time I didn't have to Di-ice the ice box car. Cant even open the car door this morning because its so iced over. It has been so cold the local fishing ponds /canals have frozen over. My eldest even said "when is this frost ever going to end I'm getting bored of it now, when can we have some warmth" we haven't had a stretch of cold like this since 2010. Long may it last through the rest of Feb and March!...

    1. March Blizzard
    2. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      Another decent frost back home in Devon which is frostier than here in the SE atm (though that's not unusual at all), though it's not as cold as spells in Feb 2012 at home, or Jan-Mar 2013 for maxima

  7. That's better, looking at the here and now and the good cold spell we are in rather worrying what's coming next.
  8. However, they did say that it would more likely to prove there would be cold later in the season..my question would be if Feb and March turn out to be cold and snowy would that prove the negative OPI a good tool in predicting 2 out of 3/4 winter months being cold?I say 3/4 because I think March can be classed as a winter month
  9. The high Shannon entropy means nothing has a high probability at the moment, nothing is certain, so what's showing in 5/6 days time will chop and change
  10. I think some of you could do with taking a break from looking at every single model run No we have the luxury of having over 2/3 rds of it left
  11. The weather definitely interested me post xmas...gave us a real taste of winter down here in cornwall...three crisp fridget ice days, the likes we haven't seen since March 2013... Gave a real yearning for more
  12. Sorry I should have worded that differently- there has been no discussion with other experts over in the strat thread regarding no SSW.This may well be they are busy on new years eve
  13. No news about this from the experts over in the strat thread, so this comment is a bit confusing
  14. At least we have a possible SSW to look forward to, just to observe it will be fun, if we benefit from it tropospherically will be a bonus too
  15. So week 3,4,5,6,7,8+ could be cold, not a bad position to be in really
  16. But they only take us to mid Jan!! (Which are almost pointless after 10 days at a push anyway) If you read his original thoughts he talks about cold end of Feb/March
  17. So what about your cold late Feb/March prediction?? Can you explain why you think it won't be cold for the next 7/8 weeks and what models back this theory???
  18. There is a hint things could lead to blocking (see strat thread for models) This is a model thread, so do you have any models to back up your theory???
  19. Zonal is just the model default pattern, everything goes to default before a pattern change...ie SSW!!!! So no need to panic
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