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John Badrick

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  1. I was thinking the same thing Karyo. He speaks a lot of sense and certainly knows his stuff. He has been quite accurate with his predictions the last couple of years and I for one will be reading and taking interest in what he has to say. The last two winters I haven't liked his predictions because they have been broadly of mild and stormy weather which we have experienced and sadly it is generally how he thinks the next couple of winters will turn out. But from 2020 (only 4 years time) he thinks the switch will come. I think we Brits need to sit tight and be patient. I do believe, soon we will be experiencing much different winters in this country. I hope he doesn't mind but I wanted to quote something from Ian's email I had recently. "As a result could well set the scene for deviations in the opposite direction towards extremely severe winters in Britain (i.e. a CET of -5C). " Be carful what you wish for comes to mind JB
  2. Hahaha, hilarious! We have another one who has access to a time machine who can see beyond 5 days. You are worried about the middle of January!! You're not seriously thinking that models can tell you the weather for most of winter 2015/16 with accuracy. If you believe that then it's just as bad as believing madden and his outlandish claims, just the opposite!!
  3. Its hilarious and a bit embarrassing how one comment can make people really believe that a whole months weather can be set in stone. No one can predict the weather a month in advance, don't care how professional they are and how many super duper, upgraded computers they have at their disposal . They haven't got some kind of crystal ball that tells the future. If they did they would be very rich indeed. How many times have people said only take models seriously 5-10 days in advance at a push, which takes us to the beginning of December -WINTER!!! Come back in a couple of days around, let's say Dec 2nd when winter starts to see if there is anything wintry in store
  4. If you read through the archives the same thing happened around this time in 2009. It's like a inevitable knee jerk reaction to the mild November weather we are having now similar to 2009 It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory
  5. Just a question to put out there. Does anyone know if we have had a snowy cold winter (not just the north uk) from a predomatley west/north west storm track with little in the way of blocking, due to a cold anomaly in the North Atlantic??Winter 1984/85 comes to mind, I'm sure I heard from somewhere that it was a cold, snowy winter predomatley from west/north west. And sure enough that year ended with a cold Atlantic
  6. And if we are in a north westerly regime, with little in the way of blocking, will the cold pool help the storm track stay cold???
  7. Cold pool that year in september Then in October of 2009 it warms quite a bit But then by December it cools again
  8. Yes and the cold pool became even colder in December that year. So a keen eye on the cold blob during November, I would bet on it coming colder again towards the end of the year
  9. If you look at the cold pool during 2009 (I think the last time we had a tripole in the Atlantic ) it was very cold right up to October where it faded, then restablished in November, then we had the very cold start to winter
  10. Has anyone got a graphic to compare North Atlantic SST this time last year (or last couple of years)compared to this years
  11. So would you say in 15 years time in Cornwall, during the summer of 2030 I will be enjoying days of 35 degrees + or will I still be complaining that we didn't even reach 20 degrees?.snowness winters and hot summers were predicted back then, they didn't happen.my next question is when will I be feeling the effects of global warming that I'm reminded about everyday?
  12. OK, I know I get slammed for saying just because its not 30 degrees IMBY global warming is not happening, but if someone told me back in 2000 (when I truly believed we were heating up) the temp will not get any higher (in Cornwall, one of the mildest counties in the Uk) than a measly 20 degrees for the whole of July, August and much of June in 15 years time, during the summer of 2015 I would have laughed in their face. Global warming may be happening else where, but it sure aint happening her...

    1. chrisbell-nottheweatherman


      Indeed, Nick - I wonder what part of "GLOBAL warming" the OP can't understand...

    2. John Badrick

      John Badrick

      So are we not part of the globe????

    3. chrisbell-nottheweatherman


      Of course we are, but global warming means that the globe is, on average, getting warmer - more places are warming than cooling. What happens here is part of that average. By saying "global warming isn't happening here" it's you that are treating Cornwall as being somehow detached from the rest of the planet. Cornwall itself might not be warming (though, spread over the last few decades, I bet it has warmed), but global warming by definition is happening globally, including...

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  13. OK, I know I get slammed for saying just because its not 30 degrees IMBY global warming is not happening, but if someone told me back in 2000 (when I truly believed we were heating up) the temp will not get any higher (in Cornwall, one of the mildest counties in the Uk) than a measly 20 degrees for the whole of July, August and much of June in 15 years time, during the summer of 2015 I would have laughed in their face. Global warming may be happening else where, but it sure aint happening here, where we are, our island, our home. If someone told me 15 years ago Cornwall will be enjoying 35 degrees+ temps and heat waves during the summer months I would have believed them. Its not happening!!! another summer has passed and yet again it has been cold and disappointing down here in Cornwall. On the plus side, they said we would be suffering endless droughts, my garden is looking lush , green and in full bloom!!! P.S I know I will get the " But during global warming episodes you will naturally get local differences and anomalies" but my question is why am I not seeing long hot summers????(i'm not bitter or ought !!! just waiting for my 1976 style summer that I was promised during my life time)
  14. yet another Auctober day!! if this is global warming, I would love to see what global coolings like

    1. Lettucing Gutted

      Lettucing Gutted

      Excellent perspective Weather History!

    2. IanR


      we are the only nation to get cooler under global warming, global cooling would probably make the uk warmer lol , we like to do things different

    3. Scorcher


      20C here yesterday and not that much rain today, don't know what the fuss is about!

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  15. Is that a good thing or bad thing for our UK winter? simple question really
  16. 12 more Glaciers that are growing !!!! http://www.ihatethemedia.com/12-more-glaciers-that-havent-heard-the-news-about-global-warming More evidence of glaciers around the world advancing, not retreating http://iceagenow.info/category/glaciers-are-growing-around-the-world/
  17. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-28885119 interesting!!!!
  18. I think more data is needed before the scaremongering starts A quote from Andrew Shepherd, a professor of Earth observation at Leeds University on the new findings: “I think the new estimates of ice loss computed from them are far too high, because the glaciers in this sector just haven’t speeded up that much. It could be that a bigger chunk of the thinning is down to snowfall fluctuations than the authors have accounted for, and so I would be cautious about the new numbers until more information is to hand,â€
  19. Firstly, no need to be so patronising,obviously I know CO2 existed before humans. That is exactly my point! what I was trying to put across, but obviously you didn't get it.....CO2 existed naturally before humans were on the planet and in more abundance in past eras. So CO2 existed when our planet lost it's ice in the past naturally, a natural phenomenon. Secondly,through ice cores scientists have concluded that there is evidence of rapid short warming before ice ages, so my question is have we come to the end of that short rapid warming period and entering a major cooling? And yes I am saying warming and cooling of our planet is a natural phenomenon!!
  20. Can we first answer the question: what was the mechanism of the natural phenomenon that has caused the expansion and retreat of glaciers on our planet for the last 100 million years? Or to word it differently, What caused the natural phenomenon of glaciers to retreat before humans and our evil C02? What caused the glaciers to retreat so much in the past that trees were growing in the arctic? Can we not apply that natural phenomenon of the past glacier retreats to the one we are in right now?
  21. 2) Little Ice Age The science is absolutely clear that there was a massive, worldwide expansion in glaciers during the Little Ice Age. In Alaska, there is evidence of three separate glacial advances, in the 12th/13thC, 17th/18thC, and finally in the late 19thC. Study of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, show that Ice margins were generally close to the late LIA maximum position at the time of the first visits of scientific parties around the turn of the century [around 1900]. There is also plenty of evidence of a similar massive expansion of glaciers from Europe, Iceland, South America and New Zealand during the Little Ice Age. Studies of glaciers in Greenland and Iceland show that, in the 19thC, they reached their maximum extent since the ice age. 3) Medieval Warming How do today’s glaciers compare to how they looked before the Little Ice Age set in? There is physical evidence from Alaska that glaciers were smaller back in the Middle Ages than they are now. As glaciers have been receding in recent years, remains of forest, carbon dated back to the Middle Ages, are being uncovered. These have been found at the Exit, Mendenhall and Ultramarine glaciers. At the Mendenhall, some tree remains have been dated back to 2000 years ago (the Roman Warming Period). We find similar discoveries in Patagonian glaciers. In all these cases, the glaciers must have terminated well uphill of the trees, which could not possibly have grown at the very edge of the ice, where they are situated now. It also seems extremely unlikely that there are not more trees to be found further up stream. In short, there is nothing to suggest that recent retreat of glaciers is anything other than a natural phenomenon, or that their current size is unprecedented or unusual.
  22. If May continues to be cool and damp to the end of the month, will we end up with the first below average month for quite some time? And is this the start of a downward trend a change from warm, above average temps to cool, below average resulting in a very cold winter 2015/16

    1. Mokidugway


      Wouldn't mind a summer first !!!.

    2. IanR


      the switch was flicked to the 'warm' setting in july 2013, it has been generally above average since bar a a couple of months here and there, only a matter of time before the weather god says enough is enough and flicks it back to the 'cool' setting for a while

    3. Summer of 95

      Summer of 95

      The flip that started the 2007-12 Summerless period happened in May, after a very sunny April. Oh dear...

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