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Posts posted by John Badrick
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I'd like it too, Fred. It's a shame that there's no evidence that it'll happen.
If there was evidence of that happening what would it be this far out if any at all
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Its still winter here and im in Cornwall. Infact last couple of days its been colder than winter, frosts and cold fog, no t-shirts and shorts, still wraped up in coats and scarfs, not looking at all summery in the forecast either, in fact it looks more wintry, with snow potential:-)Sunbathing weather each day this week here, maxima around 15c.
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Each to their own I suppose, I for one would much rather a repeat of march 2013. Remember it is more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas and March 2012 was followed by the one of the wettest summers on record. March 2013 was followed by a lovely long, warm summer. I know which one I would choose to repeat,take your pick. so I will be checking posters who are still interested and searching for wintry potential in the charts.I think its time to put my anticyclonic hat on and welcome spring instead of chasing wintry shadows like I have for the last three months..and hopefully this spring will deliver some warm and settled spells which will take us into a good summer.
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The last two posts from Purga and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes
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The daffodils have been out for two Weeks already here
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Any forecast ideas for March/April Ian?Late cold, or warm spring? your thoughts are much appriciated.
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Yes aSSW in early Feb perhaps? 6th Feb may herald that Major change as Ed has eluded to over in the strat thread. I think the word for this winter, however annoying it may be PATIENCEThe Gfs 00z op run is like a tired rerun of the atlantic dominated pattern we had through december, the only difference being it's not as stormy but it's unsettled and average. It will take something MAJOR to happen to change the tide of this abysmal winter.
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You know the outlook is poor for cold weather when even frosty hasn't got anthing positive to say
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I know who is unbiased, but what about the new people to the forum who are not aware of the more experienced and less biasedIt depends on which model, what time frame, the preferences of the poster and level of knowledge - you have been through one winter, you'll know by now where the unbiased comments originate.
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I know there's cold/mild bias but it's ridiculous this morning, how can you interpret the models so differentlyLots of cold /mild bias on here you will get used to it..if all else fails just look out the window that will never fail you.
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It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe
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Really? I thought he was forecasting record mild temperatures in December. He said it would be 15 c on Christmas Day. Well it ain't be mild here (Cornwall). It's been cold with wintry showers colder. than the last couple of years. So he was way off the markI certainly would not write this winter off yet but let's be realists and admit that certainly the first half of January is not looking good at this stage. Thought I would refer folks to Roger Smiths long range forecast which so far(to my regret) has been very good.
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Only a couple of pixels away nowIts getting closer.... The Icelandic Ice Bridge that is.
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This is good....I always believe in CC s thoughts, even when other people think mil dishBloody hell BFTV, your forecast is pretty much bang in line with how I see winter panning out.......like, exactly how I see it. I can't top that in terms of presentation either. It's like you read my mind!!
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Good forecast Sam, hope this comes off...Here's my winter 2013/2014 forecast.
For this forecast, I looked at 10 different teleconnections for their trends and averages in the last 6 to 9 months (and forecasts for MEI), and then compared those criteria with previous years, mostly back to 1951, and created a list of the years with the most similar teleconnections to this year.
Below are the 10 teleconnections and the criteria used with them.
Teleconnections ...................... ................... Criteria
Arctic Oscillation (AO): Mean of the last 6 months (May to October) close to 0, and little month to month variation.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Mean of the last 9 months (February to October) close to 0, and a moderate to large amount of month to month variation.
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): Winters averaging between -0.5 and +0.5 for the October to February period.
Eurasian Snow Cover: Years that show an above average increase from September to October Eurasian snow extent.
Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Positive in Autumn and falling through Winter.
Solar Activity: An 11 year monthly sunspot mean of below 70
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): Mean above average over the last 9 months.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Mean moderately below average over the last 9 months
Arctic Sea Ice: A September sea ice area minimum of less than 4 million km2
Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM): Mean of the last 9 months close to 0, with moderate month to month variation.
After going through the data, these were the most closely matched years
Year ... Criteria Matches out of 10
2010/11 = 7*
2009/10 = 6
2006/07 = 6
2004/05 = 7
2003/04 = 6
2002/03 = 6
1985/86 = 6
1978/79 = 6
1976/77 = 6
1973/74 = 6
So using this, each of the years with 6 matches would get 1 place in the composite maps, and 7 matches would get 2. *An exception here is 2010/11, which had a moderate El Nino, so that will only be included once.
So based on the above, here's the winter forecast.
--------------------- ------------------------------------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -----------------------
DECEMBER
A strong Atlantic ridge stretching into southern Greenland, coupled with low heights stretching from Scandinavia to the Iberian Peninsula, look to be the main features for December. An increase in northerly orientated winds could be expected with this set up, but, if the trough moves much further west, the is a chance of some milder southerly winds occurring, sourced from the western Mediterranean.
Precip is likely to be close to average, with a slightly higher chance of above rather than below average monthly totals.
Temperatures are more likely to be below average, with a CET estimate of close to 4C
JANUARY
Northern blocking, a west based -ve NAO and a large trough across central Europe are the main features for January. Northerly and northeasterly winds are likely to be more common during the month.
Rainfall is likely to be average or slightly above, with the driest weather to the south and west.
Temperatures are likely to be below average once again, with the coldest conditions further east. The CET estimate is 3.0C.
FEBRUARY
At this stage, February looks like featuring some very strong northern blocking, centred toward Greenland, with low heights across our south and into Europe. The set should produce much more easterly winds than normal.
Precip is likely to be close to or above average in the south and east, and below average further north and west
Temperatures are likely to be below average everywhere, with a CET estimate of 2.8C
OVERALL
Strong heights over southern Greenland should be a recurring feature of the first 2 months of winter, bring plenty of northerly airflows, before more general blocking takes hold, carrying more easterly winds during February. With low heights nearby and plenty of cold sourced airflows, each month has the potential for spells of cold and snow. While precip looks like being near average overall, snowfall totals may well end up above average.
The coming winter seems quite likely to be below average temperature-wise, with a good chance of all 3 winter months being below the 81-10 average.
If I was to guess at a period with the highest risk of severe cold, I'd say late January and early February, as northern blocking strengthens eastward and brings a more easterly flow across the British Isles
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]If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked DecemberLooks about average for the UK nothing too cold and is that a slight bit of orange across us too on bottom chart?, looking below average across Eastern USA, something that has been cropping up a while now to happen. And starting at the end of the weekend judging by some forecasts.
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If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked DecemberLooks about average for the UK nothing too cold and is that a slight bit of orange across us too on bottom chart?, looking below average across Eastern USA, something that has been cropping up a while now to happen. And starting at the end of the weekend judging by some forecasts.
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What has a larger teapot got to do with it?Mods why????? Is this happening??
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Mods why????? Is this happening??Why will it not allow me to write post even larger teapotPOST MODERN
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Why will it not allow me to write post even larger teapotMaybe a new era of forecasting is needed for the new post even larger teapot....
POST MODERNWhy will it not allow me to write post even larger teapot
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Maybe a new era of forecasting is needed for the new post even larger teapot....So many conflicting views and opinions this winter, and that's without the likes of Madden and Powell
We can't seen to get close to accurately predicting 5 days out, let alone any further and has seemed to be the case since the end of the summer really. I think the model discussion thread could be renamed the asylum before the winter is done and dusted.
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Everything is going against a cold winter....but the colder snap ahead wasn't predicted and goes against all mild signals...so this could be the case for the theme for this winter: a mild outlook but cold Synoptics rule the roost.... overall a forecasters nightmare6th and final winter round up video from Gavin P, at this sage he's going for a milder winter with less blocking not the final call though next week will have the final model round up before he releases the final forecast on Sunday 1st December but for now he's going for a milder one
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Maybe we need an uptake in solar activity?
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Was a bit disappointed when I realized you were a bloke!!!!I can remember many Novembers with snow. Just right for the festive season. Also remember mild Christmas days following. But not in the last 4/5 years
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
My parents live in a place called Atarau, Kazakhstan. They send me weather updates for their location everyday. My dad walks across a big river everyday to get to work.in the summer he uses the bridge, in the winter he just walks on the ice. Last year the river froze quite late in the year and they didn't have much snow. I remember he was sending me updates during the end if October and it was still very warm, unusually warm for the time of year.I have just received an update from him saying it's starting to get cold-1 this morning. I know Kazakhstan is a little further south than we want the snow advance, but 2010/11 they had am amazing winter(pic was taken in a town garden 2010) so I will update when their river freezes and the snow hits.