John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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Yes there is the GFS and ECM models that back up my theory. There is more to blocking than just the strat, but like you said, thats for a different thread.
So what about your cold late Feb/March prediction?? Can you explain why you think it won't be cold for the next 7/8 weeks and what models back this theory???
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Looking at the models, yet again, i can see westerly winds prevailing, although there is a hint that things could get much milder indeed. No hint of cold unfortunately.
I can feel a mild January coming up with perhaps a colder late February/March.
There is a hint things could lead to blocking (see strat thread for models)
This is a model thread, so do you have any models to back up your theory???
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The GEFS 06z mean paints a very unsettled picture once the current anticyclonic spell ends in a day or so, it looks mild, wet and windy but with colder, clearer and showery incursions with snow on hills, especially northern UK and frosty nights during quieter interludes of which there will be some due to the pattern being for ridges to follow depressions continually. This winter is already a cut above the last one because of the current cold spell alone. The mean trends a little colder towards the end.
Tell us something we don't know....ok we get it zonal.. windy, rain, maybe snow on hills in Scotland, not cold, not mild...yawn, yawn, yawn..I, ve lost count of how maby people have said this today, we know what models are saying no need to repeat!!!
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Going by the experts there is no sign of a marked pattern change for another month at least. When you look at the models you can see the same reloading pattern we have had since winter began. However, we can't rule out the odd colder blip, similar to what we have now.
Zonal is just the model default pattern, everything goes to default before a pattern change...ie SSW!!!! So no need to panic
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It was very windy down south
Wasn't that windy in cornwall..
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Thank you Matt, your post summarises perfectly where we are going. A bit depressing to read but it is better to know.
Yes but a lot of the coldest winters occurred without the aid of a SSW, so to write off half of the winters is a bit premature
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Oh dear...
Oh what a knob!!!!!!
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Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.[/quot
Really annoying post Alert!!!!!!
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If the models and MetO are correct for January then the OPI is dead in the water!
Back to the drawing board lads.
Andy
So if the OPI is correct for Jan then are the Met office dead in the water?? Game on I say!!!
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Yes, it's difficult to see where any major changes will come from before then.
Perhaps February will be the month when the UK is crippled by freezing temperatures and deep lying snow?
A lot happening in the strat in next 8-10 days, PV taking a bit of a battering, totally different state to what it was this time last year, so we can't really trust what the charts are saying tropospherically, so to write off Jan is very premature and very negative!!!
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The half way house would be cold and snowy for all I would imagine though?
Is it the start of the down grades though???. Seen it many a time before, the excitement, then the down beat and disappointment. I've been a member on here for a couple of years now, but never seen charts upgrade to snowier solutions. They have always sniffed out cold solutions that look amazing, but by the time we get to D.0 they are always a major watered down version
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So I think we can chalk December off as a CET that will end up at least normal and probably around +5 or more. The AO will out turn on average above normal as will the NAO. Therefore I suggest the OPI has not worked for December. 1-0 to the Met Office long range this time around. An embarrassment for the likes of Piers Corbyn at WeatherAction and James Madden at Exacta snomageddon forecasts.
However, the OPI from what I can tell only suggests at least 2/3 super negative AO months in a winter given the near record -ve value this year. So there is still time for it to claim some success.
We are only half way through December, still over two weeks left, so your statement is too early, come back in 16 DAYS!
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Lowland north-eastern areas of Britain from eastern Scotland through NE England to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire will be sheltered by hills and mountains to the west and so will be much drier; four inches of rain or somewhat less is likely in all these regions even through the westerly winds will blow very strongly at times. This means rainfall totals will be close to the February norm in all these locations; although Lincolnshire and Aberdeenshire may be a little wetter than normal due to the absence of hills to the west of much of Lincolnshire and the proximity of Aberdeenshire being closer to deep depressions in the subarctic.
The English Midlands and southern counties of England will have between three and five inches of rainfall during February due to the unsettled regimé prevailing throughout the month; Devon, Cornwall and South Wales will get five to eight inches of rainfall due to greater exposure and proximity to the North Atlantic: The southern regions of Britain will-overall- be less wet than further north because of the distance from the depression tracks but even across the south mean monthly rainfall will be some 20 to 50% above normal for the month in most areas. That said, February 2015 will be nothing like the wash-out of February 2014 anywhere,- so there should not be a repeat of the persistent flooding that plagued parts of Somerset, Devon and the Thames Valley last winter.
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As far as 2009 is concerned, we really are in a slightly different situation this year, as far as this forecasted split goes.
I have to say that I am really not too happy about this current split, or at least what is forecasted to follow after it. But on the other hand, I can almost see where it is going after that (after FI), and I think I am kinda starting to understand how this whole story of the 14/15 season might look like stratospherically.
But enough speculation for now. All in its time. Regards.
Hi Recretos, can you give us an idea how you think the 14/15 season will pan out? I know its speculation, but it would be good to know you're thoughts
Cheers
JB
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Does anyone have a link to the OPI team's UK/Europe forecast for last year? I know they got the US forecast spot on, but how did they do with Europe? Giving that the OPI last year was very positive, you'd have thought they would have got it spot on and forecast a predominantly zonal winter for the uk
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Here's a graph of annual sunspots with winter CET values below 3C marked off along the line. It should give an idea of relationship between cold winters and sunspots.
Thanks for the info BFTV
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Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?
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As promised, update from atyrau kazakhstan first snow of the season this morning. This is way ahead of last years first snow of December 3rd 2013. It was very mild right the way through November 2013. This year has been notably different to 2013/14, similar to November 2010
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What was Ian Brown's 'teapot' theory I keep reading about?
You can't say P o s t m o d e r n w i n t e r on here it comes out as large teapot hahaha
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I'm absolutely loving the debate on here, please keep it coming!
It seems this will be a very good year to test the theory out. The OPI seems likely now to return a very low figure, one that would predict a decent -AO and with it a high chance of below average temps for a good time (huge simplification disclaimer!!). However, many seasonal models are going for a slightly above average rain/temps winter. Some on the strat thread are pointing out some conditions which are not on the side of cold. And from a very amateurish point of view, the Atlantic is hardly benign at the moment and active Octobers often become active winters. So left to my own devices I would be thinking nothing less than average for 14/15 - as I get the impression some others are. If the OPI does indeed end up below 1.5 and we get a 2009/10 revisited, it will be all the more impressive for me as it would have outtrumped other models and signals.
Most of the more knowledgeable folk in the strat thread are pointing out that the teleconnections this year are contradicting the seasonal long range data. They are basically saying the condition of the PV and the forecast for the strat are different to last year and so more favorable for cold conditions for us. If things continue this way strat wise then we should see a change to a more colder outlook in the November update of the long range seasonal models.
"chionomaniac, on 16 Oct 2014 - Why is it that I think that we should ignore the seasonal model forecasts this year? - they are so far out of sync with the background teleconnective analogues.
​Hope you don't mind me quoting you Chino
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Yes its grim for coldies however the update in November 2013 showed this
And the December updated showed this
Both updates showed high pressure dominating and we all no what happened............
So basically expect the opposite to what its showing
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thanks for the reply karyo Yes been looking at the OPI thread and it makes for interesting read, a bit down beat recently (OPI going more Positive) however due to uncertainties in a relatively new theory. Think we may need to wait until the end of October on that one.hi John, the continuous fissure eruption is producing a good amount of SO2 which can translate to higher levels of ozone levels in the atmosphere which in turn can encourage high latitude blocking and therefore increase our chances for a cold winter. But as the UK is just a dot in the northern hemisphere we still need luck to get on the right side of the block. I suggest you check the OPI thread which is much more linked with our winter prospects.
Karyo
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Hi Karyo, in your honest opinion, do you think all this volcanic activity will having any bearing on the NH winter this year? Or would there need to be a bigger sudden eruption to create an ash cloud for there to have any sufficient impact? When are the general thoughts on here, thank youThe GPS is stuck again!
JB
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Joe laminate floori
Also post large teapot
But enough speculation for now. All in its time. 
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
But they only take us to mid Jan!! (Which are almost pointless after 10 days at a push anyway) If you read his original thoughts he talks about cold end of Feb/March