John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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On 15/08/2019 at 10:31, weirpig said:
Quite infact we could get quite close to 2009 my guess is around 250
I'm going to put it out there on a hunch and say no more sunspots for the rest of the year and well into 2020, maybe even the majority of 2020 spotless if not the whole year i.e. the beginning of a Dalton type minima
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Solar Flux 66 That is LOW!!
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On 18/05/2019 at 10:25, Gray-Wolf said:
I've also been wondering how we can see the kind of spotless levels some keep insisting are just around the corner?
I'm still reserving my opinion until Sept but I can see ,quite plainly, the 'direction of travel' I believe we're witnessing?
Yeah, we're heading into deep solar minimum starting end of the year -beginning of 2020 I don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp?
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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:
For those expecting us to dip to the low levels of last solar min this year are you revising your thinking yet?
To get down to the 71% and 73% blank we saw then is going to take some doing esp. now we have begun seeing cycle 25 spots emerging at the poles?
I can understand a wish for a quieter sun to spare our modern technologies from possible solar storm damage but that would be 'wishing' for low max's would it not and not long, low, min's?
No, because we are not at solar minimum yet!!! not until end of this year into 2020 will we see minimum levels. these sunspots are from current cycle 24!! how many times!!!!
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On 20/04/2019 at 09:18, Snowy L said:
Looks like those forecasts of cycle 25 being stronger are going to be true. It's kicked off early which is what they were showing.
What??? not at min yet cycle 25 not started these sun spots are from 24!!!!
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https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/
Didn't think we hit minimum yet.
“As you can see – we haven’t quite reached the lowest levels of the last cycle – where we experienced several consecutive months with no sunspots. However, the panel expects that we should reach those levels [between now and the end of 2020].”
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27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
Kind of goes with what exeter are saying.... Warmth on the way beyond mid April... Looking good to me... Its kind of got me thinking!!!!!
lost complete trust in met long term forecasts. they were banging on about cold all winter, easterly winds etc. even in to Feb. in fact the complete opposite happened and we had record heat
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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
Ridiculous output, the same old gfs garbage spewed out week after week, 2 weeks ago literally all the models showed mega cold and easterlies and snow from every angle! With in 24 hours after icon latched on to something all the models backtracked. Now 2 weeks on we have bloody bartlett scenarios showing up, what's stopping another drastic flip back in the next few days, absolutely nothing, you can go on all night about what the extended EPS are showing, or not showing, all the positive signs of the other week were undone in 24 hours. Anyway rant over, I've noticed my girlfriends horses are eating more hay and drinking much more water, they did this last year prior to the beast!! And like she said to me they no more than the models, so there you have it, strait from the horses mouth. All of those who had snow send me a pic, I'm snow starved I need cheering up.
Love from Cornwall
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Just now, Argyle1980 said:
Yes, it does. But only for cornwall I believe
and if you look at the radar it looks like the first front is pivoting and heading back through cornwall, squashed from both sides
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Just now, Argyle1980 said:
Porthleven too
is this the second band coming through?
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north Cornwall got a pasting this afternoon. some kids had to leave school early and then bus got stuck. some teachers had to abandon their cars.
wasn't forecast to be this bad
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Just now, John Badrick said:
large teapot
hahaha still does it if you write large teapot
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Just now, cyclonic happiness said:
and 'large teapot'
large teapot
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45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Was crazy! Weirded my dog, i mean the kids dog right out!
1000 yards from the sea nearly 25cm snow followed by freezing rain = chaos on the south coast!
dont think anything like that is on the cards at all! Northern parts look like seeing a good few hours of snow Saturday! Good luck you to ya, I’ll be getting about 2” of rain
They were crazy times, these were taken in Cornwall in March this year, this was the road leading down to the beach with 6ft snow drifts
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2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:
06z
LP to watch for Tues next week (December!)
Crosses Alba
Opens the Arctic pipeline
Result?
First real ppn shot for N altitudes.
it's still November next Tuesday. we are very much still autumn watch!!
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1 hour ago, Yarmy said:
The first SC24 spots formed long before the last solar minimum. There is always crossover because the solar min is just defined as the lowest smoothed monthly sunspot number. The new spot fits both the criteria for a spot belonging to the next cycle, namely:
1. It exhibits reversed polarity.
2. It's high latitude.
does this mean that cycle 24 is showing signs that it's not going to be as low aS 23 and therefore 25 is going to be more active that people are thought to believe?
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21 hours ago, Yarmy said:
Spotless run will likely come to end tomorrow, as a new spot has appeared in the NH. It's high latitude and has reversed polarity, so it's likely an SC25 spot too.
I thought solar min is not until 2019
and so c25 won't start until 2019/20 ????
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10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.I was just about to post this clip. what do people think? it does make you stop and think, very interesting and like you say time will tell and in the not so distant future
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14 hours ago, JeffC said:
Didn't know whether to post this here or in the Make Us Laugh thread...
a stopped clock is right twice a day
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1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Knocker......No chance of any sunshine today
We had a lovely day here in Bude north cornwall coast snowing early this morning with a good covering. Then the sun came out with blue skies for most of the day and the snow melted. Now we have heavy snow and back to a covering again.
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Just now, SNOW CRYSTAL said:
Is that in Bude? Love it when Cornwall gets snow and I don't even live there. You Cornish peeps have more than your fair share of disappointment.
Yes it is Bude scenes like this haven't been seen since 2010/11 amazing really to see so late in the year
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4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:Any idea when it's arriving?
Cornwall at sea level!!! Amazing to see this in March!! And the worst/best is yet to come today
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2 hours ago, festivalking said:
2.7c and raining. Cold rain my favourite!!!
Hi festiv,
Do you know what the roads a like going into prince town and surrounding area?
Cheers
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Please no repeat of "that ECM" a few years ago when everything was a dead cert, even down to t48 and then... well we know what. Can remember even the met, bbc etc were certain. Is this set up Any different? Are we in a better position? Or could it all go horribly wrong again?
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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
solar flux 66 this is very low!!