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Everything posted by John Badrick
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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards
John Badrick replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
and plenty of excitement from the guys over in the strat thread. something afoot up in the stratosphere which wasn't really expected this early on, -
I 2nd that.....couldn't put it better myself
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Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards
John Badrick replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
wow, just look at that cold getting ever so closer to us from both sides and that's not even a winter chart. good find Knocker, here comes the cold!!!!- 940 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
John Badrick replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If you read through the archives the same thing happened around this time in 2009. It's like a inevitable knee jerk reaction to the mild November weather we are having now similar to 2009 It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory- 1,200 replies
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It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory
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when the bitter cold and snow comes its gonna be a hell of a shock to the system
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I'm personally waiting for iapennell's winter forecast, he usually does one this time of year. They have been very thorough and in my opinion quite close to the mark during the last couple of winters. I wasn't quite sure at first because he mentions in quite some detail certain dates throughout the winter months. So Iam anticipating what his methods will show for 2015/16 season
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HAHAHAH!!! all this talk is hilarious October the 30th and the writing is already on the wall for this winter. At this point I would just like to reiterate what seaside 60 wrote few posts back: "However it must be noted that 28th oct 2010 there is no forecast of the mega cold spell that was coming" especially so that we are in a situation atmospherically and SST wise not seen before, so in new territory i.e not many analogues to compare
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Just a question to put out there. Does anyone know if we have had a snowy cold winter (not just the north uk) from a predomatley west/north west storm track with little in the way of blocking, due to a cold anomaly in the North Atlantic??Winter 1984/85 comes to mind, I'm sure I heard from somewhere that it was a cold, snowy winter predomatley from west/north west. And sure enough that year ended with a cold Atlantic
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And if we are in a north westerly regime, with little in the way of blocking, will the cold pool help the storm track stay cold???
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Cold pool that year in september Then in October of 2009 it warms quite a bit But then by December it cools again
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Yes and the cold pool became even colder in December that year. So a keen eye on the cold blob during November, I would bet on it coming colder again towards the end of the year
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If you look at the cold pool during 2009 (I think the last time we had a tripole in the Atlantic ) it was very cold right up to October where it faded, then restablished in November, then we had the very cold start to winter
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Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this!
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I agree Exactly what I was thinking
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JFF first lowland snow of the Season
John Badrick replied to cheshire snow's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I reckon November 15th 2019 for Bude/Cornwall for a proper dumping, maybe December 14th 2015 cold enough for a few flakes -
We had quite a bit of snow for a few days down here in a Cornwall, but nothing special, nothing like 2009/10. I would take a guess and say the next memorable winter for us will be 2018/19 (around solar min) I think it was knocker in a different thread that pointed out that we seem to have had cold winters coincide with solar mins recently
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Where are all the wasps?
John Badrick replied to Fourty Point Three Degrees's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
They are all here!!!! Got loads down here in cornwall, my daughter is freaking out as they are all attached to the patio doors trying to get in.Did you hear the Urban myth that the daddy long leg is the most poisonous insect in the Uk but they don't bite Hahahahaha! -
Has anyone got a graphic to compare North Atlantic SST this time last year (or last couple of years)compared to this years
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Rare September Heat Wave Scorches Europe
John Badrick replied to knocker's topic in Weather Around The World
A yes the castle grounds, nice spot. Did you know the canal completely froze in winter 2009 and then again in 2010. People were ice skating on it,Shows how cold it was, hoping for the same again this year. In 2012 the canal completely emptied after the lock gates were smashed due to one of the worst storms for 50 years. Lots of dramatic weather, but no dramatic heat I can think of in the last 15 years. -
Rare September Heat Wave Scorches Europe
John Badrick replied to knocker's topic in Weather Around The World
Sorry, I was just trying to say how Mother Nature likes to even things out a little, from time to time. Hahah, it's a small world, whereabouts in Bude did you stay?, I've lived here for 12 years and love it. It does have its own unpredictable micro climate unfortunately sometimes though -
Rare September Heat Wave Scorches Europe
John Badrick replied to knocker's topic in Weather Around The World