John Badrick

Ironic really if some forecasters are looking at low solar activity being a persecutor of cold winters

Could the good synoptics appearing in the charts at the moment be due to the +QBO and the increase in solar activity?

I don't think so...what charts are you looking at? Are you sure you are looking at the right date because the charts I'm looking at look like the complete opposite

Looking at my phone and People are asking me why I'm laughing to myself...I really can't be bothered to explain

This is hilarious! !

Thoughts on this chiono,recreto,interitus?

Is this a wind up??? Have I fallen asleep and woken up in mid February? Are we not still in the middle of autumn?The models are starting to look better in FI for a cool down towards mid month and then who knows progressively colder as we head in to the end of AUTUMN and colder still as we head in to proper WINTER.... "Winter is over" comments this early do my head in can you save them for March please

Yes but then it turned mild for Christmas, best we have the mild now and then it turn colder a bit later, just like 2009 and 2010 both very mild autumns and awesome winters, don't care if it doesn't snow in October or even November wintry weather is best in winter

So Chiono, why is this year harder to call for a SSW than last year?, we have had a very cold pool early, isn't it possible we could have an early warming? Is The early wave breaking + MT normal?and could the initial effect on the PV be more profound. Maybe this could be an earlier sign for a SSW than what you were originally thinking? Or am I way ooff the mark with this train of thought?

Chiono,Recretos and co, why not an early SSW this year? + w QBO and solar max.why do you think we may have a late SSW..I have a theory we have had a very cold summer arctic so we may have a sudden increase in the warmth up there in the arctic as its been so cold up there during summer months

So because we have had a good Old British summer what about put it out there and say we are going to have a good Old British winter. Got a feeling the seasons are getting back to norm.my prediction then..progressively cooler... November will be cooler then turn colder towards the end of the month, December will be cold, January will be cold, February will be...errm cold, March 2014 will start of cold and get progressively warmer, April 2014 will be milder with showers...good old British weather, back to the old days

could you give some info Roger on the ground breaking research and what influences the signals you're getting this far out. The snowmaggedon forecasts we get every year are usually explained by the suns influence on the jet sstream, I'm interested in how the opposite is forecast ie milder tHan everage.cheers

I think it's fair to relate him to someone who is being so specific, he is quoting dates which is ludicrous. Record mild temps on Christmas day or raging blizzards on Christmas day, two different forecast but with the same motive....trying to get a reaction!!! I have learnt over the years not to get sucked in and emotional, especially at such an early stage in Autumn.Listen to the more informative folk on here ie chiono,Recretos,SK,Lorenzo, Interitis,Johnholmes,CC,to name but a few

You are joking right? It is still October, I haven't fallen asleep and woken up in mid February 2014 have I??

No he's not...you’re thinking of Mark Vogan (who, incidentally has good forcasting knowledge)

The SSW was hot topic last year, even got to BBC, I reckon QBO will be flavour of the month this year and a very low solar max is a new spanner in the works, not seen in modern science

As soon as the MET O say we are going to have cool wet summers for the next 10 years the opposite happens we have the warmest summer in 6 years

What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)

wow look at this recovery going into normal territory

Don't think a very cold Feb is going to happen this year I'm afraid, just hope models would show some dry days for a change

Can't be arsed to talk about rain for the next 10 months and the sun we will never get....so see you next winter everyone xxx

Do we now look for signs for spring in the models or a reload, not much hope in the SSW thread with the Canadian vortex being less favourable for us!!!!