Newberryone

Having viewed the rather underwhelming overnight runs it's at times like this that one has a tendency to look back on recent posts such as this for some form of solace. One can only hope there might be an equally positive follow up within the next 12 hours....or so!

A case of spot the difference with regards to day number one and day 10 on the Ecm overnight run. Atlantic influence still very evident out to day 10, at least, with north western areas more prone yet again to any wind and rain. Still, as the more knowledgeable in here have already stressed the timeframe of interest with regards to cold weather prospects is from mid-dec onwards. Let's just pray they're bang on the money with this theory...

Wash out your mouth CreweCold for personally speaking I find the whole notion of a pressure rise from the south distasteful and downright nauseating, especially at this time of year. If we can't have snowy, I'd rather a turbulent Atlantic and an unstable atmosphere, far more preferable than being stuck under a boring Euro Slug high bringing total nothingness...

Been a long day is right, and doesn’t seem to be ending on a very cheerful note either, especially should those latter frames of tonight’s Ecm verify. Can’t see heights building from the south doing us any favours with regards to cold weather prospects.

Any pressure rise from the south in winter can be fraught with danger for those of a cold weather persuasion. Wouldn't care either to hedge too many bets on frost and fog being much of a player with such a mid latitude block.

Perhaps short term pain for long term gain, who knows, but what does look a dead cert now and which is often the case in these type of weather setups is that Ireland looks like bearing the brunt of this upcoming turbulent Atlantic spell with the potential for large volumes of rain driven on by a moisture laden south westerly airflow. Met office here this morning flagging a wet and windy spell from Tuesday onwards...

Would be very interesting now in light of today’s models to read the thoughts of SM and Tight Isobar who’ve to date been rather optimistic and bullish in projecting the possibility of a protracted cold spell. Perhaps I’m guilty of oversimplifying this but surely even their views now must entertain the thought of an Atlantic breakthrough, for however long that may last. I must admit I love when amidst all the doom and gloom they manage to put a positive spin on things regarding the potential for cold weather when that time arises.

Could this possibly be what the ext/eps are reflecting for this time period...Sods law!!

Some unseasonable warmth being forecast from midweek with winds from a southerly quadrant. Just hoping future runs will continue the momentum with regards to the favourable orientation of this high and that it will soon be a case of short term pain for long term gain..

00z Ecm looking pretty unsettled it has to be said all the way out to day 10 with little if any sign of high pressure suppressing the zonal train to any great extent. Potential therefore for significant enough volumes of rain in the days ahead I should think. Perhaps a hint towards the end of the outlook period of a general rise in pressure from the southwest. Frost doesn’t look like being an issue either throughout this period.

Any eastern block not quite as evident with the atlantic still looking very dominant as we progress through next week. Looks like as always western areas seeing the highest precipitation with embedded troughs in the flow. Even at day ten the atlantic seems to be met with little resistance from the east. Any low pressure systems admittedly by then look far less menacing in nature.

Disappointingly quiet in here tonight compared to just recently. Post northerly airflow, while still somewhat uncertain, does now appear to be settling on an ordinary run of the mill type changeable late autumn period as opposed to those dreamlike synoptics originally being forecast for next week. Thankfully it’s only Oct 24th so no need for despondency, just yet.

Not too sure there's very much evidence of any block to the east to dispute my musings/thoughts on the latter frames of the Ecm with the overnight run continuing in a similar vein. Certainly doesn't scream reload potential of a wintry nature, in fact it seems to paint an all too familiar picture of heights to the south possibly coming back into play.

From a cold weather perspective one can't help but feel a tad deflated by the latter stages of the last two set of runs from the Ecm, both showing little potential for further reloads.

Nothing really from the overnight ecm run for anyone with a cold bias to get overly excited about with regards to sufficient retrogression of the high pressure cell in order to bring about something distinctly more autumnal.

I can't see frost and fog being much of an issue with this anticyclone, moreover if it turns out to be a cloudy high. As ever, only time will tell...

Let's hope is right because the latest from the Ecm to me doesn't look very encouraging for Arctic blasts of any nature with a great big anticyclone parked right over us. Admittedly from this may come a few chilly nights depending on cloud cover but daytime temps would be on the mild side to say the least. I'm thinking we may have to sit this one out and be very patient.

Signs of the jet being pushed back slightly north again with the Ecm 00z run again showing heights to the south as we go on into next week deflecting the worst of any wind and rain off to the far northwest. In general, prospects looking far less volatile going forward to what was showing approx two days ago.

This was a very brave call BFTP considering the latest Ecm run which I’ve just addressed in my previous post.

Exceptionally quiet in here so far today, and understandably so if the overnight Ecm 00z run is to verify. I remarked yesterday on how the latter frames of the Ecm looked less unsettled and now 24 hours later this overall theme seems to be even gaining further momentum with those dreaded heights to the south very much in evidence later next week. One has of course to factor in the volatility in the models right now owing to the hurricane season, but one also has to take cognizance of the fact we could now more or less be looking at something far less autumnal in nature for the second half of October than was previously envisaged.

I'll settle for this anytime over heights to the south which have been nothing but a borefest for oh so long. Great to finally see the jet digging somewhat further south with lots of mobility promised for the foreseeable. Although with all of that said the overnight Ecm 00z run is not looking quite as unsettled in the latter frames unlike the previous run.

Perhaps I'm wrong Frosty, but I think I detect a certain sign of excitement from this post. If so, I'm with you all the way on this one for I believe things have been static for long enough.

And not just Gem, for the 12z Ecm is singing from a similar hymn sheet with tentative signs of the block to the east winning the battle for now at least against the Atlantic. What was only 24 hours ago showing something really autumnal for the backend of next week has now switched to conditions akin to late Summer as opposed to late Autumn. Something I gather that will displease many on here who like myself are yearning for something more turbulent.

Day 10 on the 12z Ecm has an interesting little feature as well down to the south west. Could that Hollywood wind machine be about to roll into town again. Then again, all very dependent on those heights to the east as to whether this has the potential to develop further or not.

A resilient block to the east very much in evidence again on the 00z Ecm run ultimately sparing large parts of the UK from the worst of any wind and rain due in on a long fetch and no doubt moisture laden south westerly flow next week. As is usually the case in this type of weather setup Ireland seems pretty much guaranteed to see a rise in water levels. Of course, one can never discount the fact that these systems could be deflected further northwest in the next run owing to the block.