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  1. It may be nine days away but one can see as early as the 24th those unwanted Iberian heights coming very much into play which seems to be the general theme going forward.
  2. Stands to reason of course, but you guys in the UK always stand a far better chance anytime there's ever a hint of anything truly cold incoming off the nearby continent. Should this cold spell materialize later on this month Ireland will no doubt be left picking up the scraps as it sits on the periphery of the two main air masses.
  3. I don’t think early Nov will bring with it the potential for any disruptive weather as I’m quietly confident heights will have risen considerably from the south by then. However, Tue 27th Oct is possibly one to watch with the potential in this instance for some explosive cyclogenesis 🙏
  4. As is nearly always the case one can surely expect the gfs to fall in line with the Ecm. I don’t anticipate the Ecm backing down on this more settled theme now going into Nov.
  5. Well judging by the 240hr chart from the 12z ECM that seems to have been a very accurate prediction indeed. Can't help but feel an air of despondency coming on..💤
  6. Think I could just about accept a mild winter provided it comes with an active Atlantic season as opposed to a yawn fest brought on by a relentless Azores/Euro high 💤
  7. I said in my last post on Saturday night that I didn't consider it a foregone conclusion that post Wed-Fri of this week that these North Atlantic lows would suppress the Azores ridging to any great extent and judging by mb018538 post from earlier today it would appear my prediction may have some credence after all 😁
  8. The 12z Ecm does appear to have downgraded the unsettled Wed-Fri period somewhat although still distinctly autumnal compared to what we’ve enjoyed these past couple of weeks. And if this 168 hr chart is anything to go by I wouldn’t be quite so sure that these North Atlantic lows will suppress the now familiar Azores ridging to any great extent.
  9. While the models seem to be definitely firming up now on an autumnal few days next Wed to Friday it would appear that it may be pretty short lived after all as that huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic looks poised to settle things down considerably again to end the month.
  10. Looking pretty doubtful at this stage though that the system you refer to appearing over the US will impact our weather to any great extent over the following period. The 12z suites in general appear far less autumnal than the 00z’s. I suspect continuous ridging from the Azores will overall minimize any potential threat of very unsettled weather going forward.
  11. True Steve, but differences look pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. With the way this season has panned out in general I just can’t see anything noteworthy emerging now so late on with this in all likelihood being another false dawn to add to the already endless collection. As ever though, time will tell.
  12. Nothing like the good old Ecm to add a touch of realism to the proceedings as borne out by the overnight run. Looking very doubtful now that we can expect any last minute surprises with regards to Scandinavian heights with more a Euro slug being the form horse. Mercifully it will at least bring something springlike to our shores at long last.
  13. Well the overnight Ecm run certainly doesn’t seem to be following in the footsteps of the Icon 0z as it delivers little in the way of anything other than a continuation of the changeable dross we’ve been experiencing to date.
  14. Signs continuing to emerge this morning of something more springlike in nature with mid March still holding the promise of far less unsettled conditions with heights encroaching from the southwest. Fingers crossed!!
  15. Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter.
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