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Newberryone

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  1. True Steve, but differences look pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. With the way this season has panned out in general I just can’t see anything noteworthy emerging now so late on with this in all likelihood being another false dawn to add to the already endless collection. As ever though, time will tell.
  2. Nothing like the good old Ecm to add a touch of realism to the proceedings as borne out by the overnight run. Looking very doubtful now that we can expect any last minute surprises with regards to Scandinavian heights with more a Euro slug being the form horse. Mercifully it will at least bring something springlike to our shores at long last.
  3. Well the overnight Ecm run certainly doesn’t seem to be following in the footsteps of the Icon 0z as it delivers little in the way of anything other than a continuation of the changeable dross we’ve been experiencing to date.
  4. Signs continuing to emerge this morning of something more springlike in nature with mid March still holding the promise of far less unsettled conditions with heights encroaching from the southwest. Fingers crossed!!
  5. Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter.
  6. Some brief respite from all the wind and rain it would seem through this week fortunately but the overnight Ecm still holding firm on the possibility of a general return to more unsettled even quite disturbed weather towards the end of the run. Amazing to still see the pv so unrelenting in nature.
  7. These charts are enough to send the vast majority of coldies on this forum into hibernation till Nov ?
  8. While the 12z gfs threw up some positives for coldies with the likelihood of cold incursions going forward the 12z ecm isn’t having any of it seemingly. A nightmare of a run again with a combination of azores/euro heights coming very much into play from 19th Feb on. On the plus side, less rainfall and slack winds of course.
  9. At least the 00z Ecm has reverted to showing something far less unsettled again post Storm Denis, unlike yesterday’s 12z which surprisingly was only showing a 24-48 window of opportunity of drier weather. The overnight run is again indicating euro heights will fend off the worst of anything the pv has to throw at us by veering those deep Atlantic depressions well away to the northwest from next Tue onwards. Fingers crossed!
  10. 00z Ecm and the recurring theme of building heights to the south definitely gathering momentum. As recently highlighted by others I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to see a rerun of last February’s unseasonal warmth should these charts come any way close to verifying, post day 10 especially showing potential.
  11. 12z Ecm and the Azores high looking primed to rid us of this turbulent spell following the upcoming weekend gales. In fact, all looks very springlike indeed days 9 and 10
  12. The latest Ecm run in its latter stages continuing to indicate an uptick in temps to perhaps early springlike values with heights to the south eventually settling conditions down somewhat with Atlantic lows being steered away to the far off northwest. So following the upcoming disturbed period of weather it would appear that the low pressure system( less intense in nature) modeled for next Wednesday could be the last bout of very unsettled weather we see for awhile.
  13. I think one can clearly see the distinct possibility of these Atlantic lows having the knock on effect of eventually bringing an early taste of spring, perhaps even something akin to the latter stages of last Feb, days 9 and 10 of the overnight Ecm run being a typical example. Just look at that renewed surge of heights from the south ahead of that mid Atlantic storm which is diverted away to the northwest as a result. Yes, the Ecm traditionally has a bias towards over amplifying in the latter stages but this scenario cannot be ruled out either. So in summary, very unsettled, potentially disturbed from Sat to Wed inclusive followed by a gradual settling down thereafter with temps by then average or dare I say above.
  14. Well the overnight Ecm still showing signs of windy weather, specifically the dates of the 10th, 11th and 12th with Scotland potentially in the firing line for the strongest of these winds come day 10 in particular. In general though heights to the south seem even more prevalent in this run so perhaps we might see a further toning down of this predicted stormy period in subsequent runs.
  15. Amplification still on the table yes but not unfortunately to the extent that most people on here are seeking as the whole thing predictably looks like flattening out again in the latter frames. Pm incursions probably the best one can hope for going forward as a whole.
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