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Newberryone

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    Cork, Ireland.
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    Music movies weather
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    Storms frost snow heatwaves

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  1. Looking at the 12z Ecm it’s quite conceivable that it may not be all that long again before springlike temps similar to those of recent times make for many a welcome return. Unlike the 00z run heights to the southwest looking far more apparent in the second half of the run with systems being diverted further north. Setting aside this weekend, in general a far less unsettled looking run. Could this after all be just an interruption to an overall prolonged settled spell one wonders.
  2. At last it would now appear we're about to see a long overdue end to this omega block from next weekend. While I appreciate many are enjoying the early Spring warmth brought about in part by this block I won't disguise the fact I'm eagerly looking forward to a resurgent Atlantic. Whether this upcoming unsettled spell proves to be protracted in nature remains to be seen but any change from what we've had to endure for so long now can only be a good thing.
  3. But hasn’t that been the story of this winter, signs of anything potentially wintry have nearly always remained outside the day ten range. Besides, like the gfs the 00z Ecm run seems to be yet again delaying any breakdown with the block proving more resilient. Wouldn’t surprise me to see this eastern block continuing to plague us well into March.
  4. Well Karl, judging by the latest overnight run from the likes of the Ecm it would appear you were correct in preempting another day of punishment ahead. Usually such reverse psychology would produce more favourable results.
  5. Looks like Ecm may just perhaps be trying to salvage something out of this most frustrating of winters. It’d be nice to think that the dice for once may roll in our favour should such an evolution come to pass and more importantly be built upon in future runs. One dares to dream! Ps Tight Isobar, I love your contribution to this forum, and always enjoy reading your superb analysis and interpretation of the model output. As a fellow coldie I’m forever willing you to be right.
  6. Knowing how this winter’s gone so far and judging by how the last high just sat to our southwest for weeks on end wiping out wintry potential from approx Dec 24th through nearly all of Jan I wouldn’t care to bet on this high doing us any great favours in this respect either.
  7. Yes, and we all know what happened Christmas just gone, those painful heights to the southwest which came into play from around Dec 24th and just sat there for nigh on 3 weeks. And now a Euro high looks like setting up shop and eating into more valuable winter time for us from next weekend.
  8. Surely the likes of Tight Isobar and all those who solicited false hope re the long range teleconnections/ssw effects etc etc must be tucked away in a corner somewhere eating humble pie right now having seen some of the latest stomach churning FI charts.. Perhaps time to admit defeat eh I’d challenge anyone to put a positive spin on this chart.
  9. I didn’t say the pv scuppers our hopes all of the time. If I’m not mistaken the word “largely” was used.
  10. What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!!
  11. Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end.
  12. Sadly no sign of anything really sustained with regards to prolonged wintry prospects. For several days now the ec det runs have been indicating a return to something less cold/mild in its ext outlook period and these signs don’t seem to be waning by any means. Yes, it may only be a temporary temp rise but overall time is of the essence now as the clock is ticking fast on this forgettable winter.
  13. In a winter that saw continuous grass growth for many, I can’t see anything but an early arrival of Spring going forward judging by Ecm’s prediction for Feb 4th. Just look at those ghastly heights to the southwest which have basically been the story of winter ‘18/‘19.Tick tock, tick tock!!!
  14. One can only hope the commencement of these northerly incursions from around the 14th/15th will eventually lead to something more substantial in terms of sustained blocking. Can’t honestly say I find the wording on the latest outlook from the met service here to be overly interesting. This for example is how they see things panning out from next Wednesday onwards.. ”Further outlook: A changeable more mobile Atlantic regime is probable, with damp or wet and windy episodes, alternating with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will tend to trend closer to average, with an increased risk of night-time frosts”
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