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  1. With the likelihood of far less changeable and unsettled weather taking hold shortly after mid month I find the above post very sobering indeed as it highlights the many pitfalls that come with pressure rises from the south as we enter one of the most highly anticipated seasons of the year. While getting a break from all the rain is perfectly understandable I fail to grasp all this enthusiasm that there seems to be for the possibility of an Indian summer. All very well if it laid the foundation for something far more palatable come Dec, Jan, Feb, but how often has that been the case.
  2. I'd say be careful what you wish for as there does now seem to be growing support for the possibility of an anticyclonic spell towards the end of Oct early Nov. That's all very well if it was for example high pressure building down from the north which would bring about something chilly at least. However this doesn't seem likely as many models are suggesting more of a subtropical high influence which as we know all too well does not bode well for anyone with a preference for seasonal weather. Doubt many on here are seeking an extension to summer 2019 as winter beckons.
  3. As you rightly point out certainly no pot of gold judging by this run at the end of the rainbow, especially for those of a nervous disposition brought on by the fear of unseasonably mild weather. Should this latest output verify it would seem to suggest another 7/8 days of fairly unsettled weather before a dramatic turnabout to potential Indian summer like conditions. Just when I thought it might be safe to put away the lawnmower till next March.
  4. Unsurprisingly the lack of posts in here so far today would seem to reflect the latest output from the 00z Ecm. Very different from yesterday’s 12z, not of course with regards to Lorenzo but with regards to what follows.Yesterdays output had a much stronger looking jet stream suppressing any heights to the south whereas it’s the opposite today. So as it stands next week and quite possibly beyond looking very benign indeed with little sign if any of anything remotely wintry.
  5. Fortunately all model runs in the last 24 hours significantly downgrading any possible impact from Lorenzo but still a very fluid setup. Also noticeable in this time period has been a gradual moving away from anything distinctly unsettled or wintry post Lorenzo with Atlantic systems being veered further away to the northwest owing to a huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic. October still holding the promise I feel of something more akin to late summer than autumn as time progresses.
  6. Well just a few days ago the general pattern for early Oct did seem to suggest a shift more towards anticyclonic conditions. As is often the case the models can have a tendency to drop this only to revert back to it again in a relatively short period of time. This I think is what we may be witnessing here again with heights to the south as shown on the latter stages of the 12z Ecm introducing another benign spell of relatively mild weather.
  7. Certainly the consistent signal for height rises to the south as we begin a new month (Oct) seem to be still very much in evidence with nothing too ominous looking according to the 00z Ecm run. Perhaps a typical north/south split with the latter favouring out best as usual.
  8. Day 10 on the 12z Ecm would seem to suggest, albeit tentative in nature, a general settling down in conditions again courtesy of the familiar subtropical high with temps recovering to near or normal values after the weekends cool incursion.
  9. Having seen the latest output from the 12z Ecm I think my use of the word "dramatic" in the past 24 hours or so may just have been overstating it. Things not looking quite so turbulent now with as you say low pressure systems eventually being pushed further north owing yet again to a general pressure rise to our southwest. The same swathe of high pressure that nearly 9 times out of 10 seems to take up residence each and every winter leading to another season of our discontent. Sods law!!
  10. At long last there seems to be a growing consensus of a potentially dramatic pattern change in our weather from Saturday on. A resurgent Atlantic isn't something we've witnessed for a very long time.
  11. And we all know what followed...one of the most unmemorable winters of our time.
  12. Overnight Ecm op run still on course for a general settling down of sorts from around Thurs/Fri but it has to be said looking slightly further ahead into week 2 that the anticyclone seems to be coming under renewed pressure from a..dare I say it, resurgent Atlantic!!
  13. As I suspected, TS Dorian having little impact on our weather this side of the Atlantic going forward. What is clearly evident is a continuation of mostly dry weather apart from the usual areas further to the northwest but even here precipitation looks negligible. Certainly very little happening it would seem well on into the Fi period for those especially who are by now seeking something generally more autumnal in nature.
  14. Don isn't the only one who would find some cheer in this chart, however I suspect Dorian will probably have little or no effect come that time frame on those nagging heights to the southwest. The same source of high pressure that usually plagues us during winter by scuppering any cold weather potential. Far too early for any such air of despondency of course
  15. Chalk and cheese comes to mind with regards the latter frames of the 12z Ecm compared to the 00z which was looking very autumnal indeed. Surely must call into question how much credence one can give to the latest outlook, especially beyond next weekend.
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